America’s Horse of the Year for 2016 will be named at the Eclipse Awards evening at Gulfstream Park, Miami, on Saturday. There are three nominations - Arrogate, California Chrome and Songbird - with ‘Chrome’ widely seen as the favorite to emerge top after the voting. But would that be a realistic interpretation of what actually happened during the year? We consulted the TRC Global Rankings database for a little extra insight.
We selected what we believe are the four most important criteria, and asked the TRC algorithm not only how the big three fared in 2016 but also how they compared with the best U.S. horses that have run for as long as we have data - back to the start of 2011.
1. The one-off performance
Top ten U.S. horses of the last six years based on their best RPRs (Racing Post Ratings)
Rank | Name | RPR | Year | Age | Sex | Trainer | Distance | Surface |
1 | American Pharoah | 138 | 2015 | 3 | colt | Bob Baffert | 10 | Dirt |
2 | Arrogate | 136 | 2016 | 3 | colt | Bob Baffert | 10 | Dirt |
3 | California Chrome | 135 | 2016 | 5 | horse | Art Sherman | 10 | Dirt |
4 | Frosted | 130 | 2016 | 4 | horse | Kiaran McLaughlin | 8 | Dirt |
4 | Wise Dan | 130 | 2013 | 6 | gelding | Charles LoPresti | 8 | Turf |
6 | Fort Larned | 128 | 2012 | 4 | horse | Ian Wilkes | 10 | Dirt |
7 | Mucho Macho Man | 128 | 2013 | 5 | horse | Kathy Ritvo | 9 | Dirt |
8 | I'll Have Another | 127 | 2012 | 3 | horse | Doug O'Neill | 10 | Dirt |
9 | Drosselmeyer | 126 | 2011 | 4 | horse | William Mott | 10 | Dirt |
10 | Animal Kingdom | 126 | 2011 | 3 | horse | H Graham Motion | 10 | Dirt |
10 | Will Take Charge | 126 | 2013 | 3 | horse | D Wayne Lukas | 10 | Dirt |
10 | Ron The Greek | 126 | 2013 | 6 | horse | William Mott | 9 | Dirt |
10 | Palace Malice | 126 | 2014 | 4 | horse | Todd Pletcher | 8 | Dirt |
10 | Honor Code | 126 | 2015 | 4 | horse | Claude McGaughey III | 8 | Dirt |
10 | Game On Dude | 126 | 2013 | 6 | gelding | Bob Baffert | 10 | Dirt |
10 | Smiling Tiger | 126 | 2011 | 4 | horse | Jeff Bonde | 7 | Dirt |
10 | Bodemeister | 126 | 2012 | 3 | horse | Bob Baffert | 10 | Dirt |
Data since 1/1/2011. Figures for a single season in U.S. or elsewhere by U.S.-trained horse in Graded races in the U.S. or in Group/Graded races elsewhere
One for Arrogate. It is no surprise to see the Juddmonte colt and California Chrome way out in front after their magnificent battle in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November. Songbird, for all her brilliance, doesn’t make the top ten - her best is an RPR of 124 when touched off by Beholder in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff.
2. Consistent excellence
Horses with the most runs assessed at an RPR of 120 or better
Rank | Name | RPR 120+ | Year | Age | Sex | Runs | Trainer | Distance | Surface |
1 | American Pharoah | 8 | 2015 | 3 | colt | 8 | Bob Baffert | 10 | Dirt |
2 | Wise Dan | 6 | 2012 | 5 | gelding | 6 | Charles LoPresti | 8 | Turf |
2 | Wise Dan | 6 | 2013 | 6 | gelding | 7 | Charles LoPresti | 8 | Turf |
2 | Game On Dude | 6 | 2012 | 5 | gelding | 8 | Bob Baffert | 10 | Cushion |
5 | Royal Delta | 5 | 2012 | 4 | mare | 7 | William Mott | 9 | Dirt |
5 | California Chrome | 5 | 2014 | 3 | horse | 8 | Art Sherman | 10 | Dirt |
5 | Game On Dude | 5 | 2011 | 4 | gelding | 7 | Bob Baffert | 10 | Dirt |
5 | Acclamation | 5 | 2011 | 5 | horse | 7 | Donald Warren | 10 | Turf |
5 | Game On Dude | 5 | 2013 | 6 | gelding | 7 | Bob Baffert | 10 | Dirt |
5 | California Chrome | 5 | 2016 | 5 | horse | 6 | Art Sherman | 10 | Dirt |
Data since 1/1/2011. Totals for single season in U.S. or elsewhere by U.S.-trained horse in Graded races in the U.S. or in Group/Graded races elsewhere
This one goes to California Chrome. He raced in Graded company six times and lost the once - to Arrogate in the Classic. Five of those runs earned an RPR in excess of 120. In his own remarkable season, Arrogate, in contrast, raced in Graded company just twice - receiving high RPRs on both occasions.
Only three of Songbird’s eight Graded wins were assessed at 120 or better, although she wasn’t asked too many serious questions in most of those runs.
3. Visual impression
Top ten horses with the biggest aggregate winning margins since 2011
Rank | Name | Aggegate | Year | Age | Sex | Wins | Trainer | Distance | Surface |
1 | Songbird | 38.5 | 2016 | 3 | filly | 7 | Jerry Hollendorfer | 8 | Dirt |
2 | American Pharoah | 36.5 | 2015 | 3 | colt | 7 | Bob Baffert | 10 | Dirt |
3 | Untapable | 33.25 | 2014 | 3 | mare | 6 | Steven Asmussen | 8 | Dirt |
4 | Groupie Doll | 25 | 2012 | 4 | mare | 5 | William Bradley | 7 | Dirt |
4 | Condo Commando | 25 | 2014 | 2 | filly | 2 | Rudy Rodriguez | 9 | Dirt |
6 | Game On Dude | 24 | 2013 | 6 | gelding | 5 | Bob Baffert | 10 | Dirt |
7 | Verrazano | 22.75 | 2013 | 3 | horse | 4 | Todd Pletcher | 8 | Dirt |
8 | Wise Dan | 22.5 | 2012 | 5 | gelding | 5 | Charles LoPresti | 8 | Turf |
9 | Hilda's Passion | 22.25 | 2011 | 4 | mare | 4 | Todd Pletcher | 7 | Dirt |
10 | Dreaming Of Julia | 22 | 2013 | 3 | mare | 1 | Todd Pletcher | 8 | Dirt |
Data since 1/1/2011. Totals for single season in U.S. or elsewhere by U.S.-trained horse in Graded races in the U.S. or in Group/Graded races elsewhere
Here’s where Songbird comes into her own. She was so superior to the rest of the U.S. crop of 3-year-old fillies she usually beat them with ridiculous ease whenever she set foot on a racecourse. Her aggregate winning margin is greater even than American Pharoah’s in 2015.
Arrogate’s Travers victory in August, his first run at Graded level, helped him to an impressive 14 lengths aggregate for his two runs, and Chrome’s number wasn’t bad either (12.75 lengths).
4. Prolific top-level success
The U.S. runners with the most Graded stakes wins in any one season since 2011
Rank | Name | Graded wins | Year | Age | Sex | Places | Runs | Trainer | Distance | Surface |
1 | American Pharoah | 7 | 2015 | 3 | colt | 8 | 8 | Bob Baffert | 10 | Dirt |
1 | Songbird | 7 | 2016 | 3 | filly | 8 | 8 | Jerry Hollendorfer | 8 | Dirt |
3 | Untapable | 6 | 2014 | 3 | mare | 6 | 7 | Steven Asmussen | 8 | Dirt |
3 | Wise Dan | 6 | 2013 | 6 | gelding | 7 | 7 | Charles LoPresti | 8 | Turf |
5 | Groupie Doll | 5 | 2012 | 4 | mare | 8 | 8 | William Bradley | 7 | Dirt |
5 | Never Retreat | 5 | 2011 | 6 | mare | 9 | 11 | Chris Block | 8 | Turf |
5 | Havre De Grace | 5 | 2011 | 4 | mare | 6 | 7 | J Larry Jones | 9 | Dirt |
5 | Zagora | 5 | 2012 | 5 | mare | 7 | 8 | Chad C Brown | 8 | Turf |
5 | California Chrome | 5 | 2014 | 3 | horse | 6 | 8 | Art Sherman | 10 | Dirt |
5 | Catch A Glimpse | 5 | 2016 | 3 | filly | 6 | 8 | Mark Casse | 8 | Turf |
5 | Acclamation | 5 | 2011 | 5 | horse | 6 | 7 | Donald Warren | 10 | Turf |
5 | Game On Dude | 5 | 2013 | 6 | gelding | 6 | 7 | Bob Baffert | 10 | Dirt |
5 | Wise Dan | 5 | 2012 | 5 | gelding | 6 | 6 | Charles LoPresti | 8 | Turf |
5 | Game On Dude | 5 | 2012 | 5 | gelding | 7 | 8 | Bob Baffert | 10 | Cushion |
5 | California Chrome | 5 | 2016 | 5 | horse | 6 | 6 | Art Sherman | 10 | Dirt |
Data since 1/1/2011. Totals for single season in U.S. or elsewhere by U.S.-trained horse in Graded races in the U.S. or in Group/Graded races elsewhere
Here Songbird is up with the Pharoah once again, level at the top of the whole pile with the 2015 Triple Crown champ on seven Graded wins in the season (both of them from eight runs). California Chrome was pretty prolific too, but he had just the six Graded runs. The 5-year-old actually won seven from eight through the year, but two of those wins (one in Dubai in February, the other at Los Alamitos in December) were not in Graded races.
So would Chrome be the right winner? We asked TRC readers in a poll after the BC Classic in November if they favored California Chrome or Arrogate, and the result was pretty unequivocal - 83 percent voted for Chrome. And TRC correspondent Bob Ehalt was another Chrome supporter when he assessed the Eclipse Awards in an article here earlier this month.
In any normal year, the case for Songbird would be strong. Which of our four criteria are the most important is, of course, a matter for debate, but the filly comes out top in two of them and there’s no doubt she’s an exceptional racehorse. But her defeat, narrow as it was, at the hands of Beholder in that mighty Distaff can’t help but count against her, and anyway the general feeling is that this isn’t a normal year.
Maybe Songbird will get another shot at the main award in 12 months’ time.