U.S. Horse of the Year: dissecting the key criteria

Queen of the winning margin stats: Songbird (Mike Smith) put seven lengths between her and her closest pursuer in the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga in August. Photo: Joe Labozzetta/NYRA.com

America’s Horse of the Year for 2016 will be named at the Eclipse Awards evening at Gulfstream Park, Miami, on Saturday. There are three nominations - Arrogate, California Chrome and Songbird - with ‘Chrome’ widely seen as the favorite to emerge top after the voting. But would that be a realistic interpretation of what actually happened during the year? We consulted the TRC Global Rankings database for a little extra insight.

We selected what we believe are the four most important criteria, and asked the TRC algorithm not only how the big three fared in 2016 but also how they compared with the best U.S. horses that have run for as long as we have data - back to the start of 2011.

1. The one-off performance

Top ten U.S. horses of the last six years based on their best RPRs (Racing Post Ratings)

Rank

Name

RPR

Year

Age

Sex

Trainer

Distance

Surface

1

American Pharoah

138

2015

3

colt

Bob Baffert

10

Dirt

2

Arrogate

136

2016

3

colt

Bob Baffert

10

Dirt

3

California Chrome

135

2016

5

horse

Art Sherman

10

Dirt

4

Frosted

130

2016

4

horse

Kiaran McLaughlin

8

Dirt

4

Wise Dan

130

2013

6

gelding

Charles LoPresti

8

Turf

6

Fort Larned

128

2012

4

horse

Ian Wilkes

10

Dirt

7

Mucho Macho Man

128

2013

5

horse

Kathy Ritvo

9

Dirt

8

I'll Have Another

127

2012

3

horse

Doug O'Neill

10

Dirt

9

Drosselmeyer

126

2011

4

horse

William Mott

10

Dirt

10

Animal Kingdom

126

2011

3

horse

H Graham Motion

10

Dirt

10

Will Take Charge

126

2013

3

horse

D Wayne Lukas

10

Dirt

10

Ron The Greek

126

2013

6

horse

William Mott

9

Dirt

10

Palace Malice

126

2014

4

horse

Todd Pletcher

8

Dirt

10

Honor Code

126

2015

4

horse

Claude McGaughey III

8

Dirt

10

Game On Dude

126

2013

6

gelding

Bob Baffert

10

Dirt

10

Smiling Tiger

126

2011

4

horse

Jeff Bonde

7

Dirt

10

Bodemeister

126

2012

3

horse

Bob Baffert

10

Dirt

Data since 1/1/2011. Figures for a single season in U.S. or elsewhere by U.S.-trained horse in Graded races in the U.S. or in Group/Graded races elsewhere

One for Arrogate. It is no surprise to see the Juddmonte colt and California Chrome way out in front after their magnificent battle in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November. Songbird, for all her brilliance, doesn’t make the top ten - her best is an RPR of 124 when touched off by Beholder in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

2. Consistent excellence

Horses with the most runs assessed at an RPR of 120 or better

Rank

Name

RPR 120+

Year

Age

Sex

Runs

Trainer

Distance

Surface

1

American Pharoah

8

2015

3

colt

8

Bob Baffert

10

Dirt

2

Wise Dan

6

2012

5

gelding

6

Charles LoPresti

8

Turf

2

Wise Dan

6

2013

6

gelding

7

Charles LoPresti

8

Turf

2

Game On Dude

6

2012

5

gelding

8

Bob Baffert

10

Cushion

5

Royal Delta

5

2012

4

mare

7

William Mott

9

Dirt

5

California Chrome

5

2014

3

horse

8

Art Sherman

10

Dirt

5

Game On Dude

5

2011

4

gelding

7

Bob Baffert

10

Dirt

5

Acclamation

5

2011

5

horse

7

Donald Warren

10

Turf

5

Game On Dude

5

2013

6

gelding

7

Bob Baffert

10

Dirt

5

California Chrome

5

2016

5

horse

6

Art Sherman

10

Dirt

Data since 1/1/2011. Totals for single season in U.S. or elsewhere by U.S.-trained horse in Graded races in the U.S. or in Group/Graded races elsewhere

This one goes to California Chrome. He raced in Graded company six times and lost the once - to Arrogate in the Classic. Five of those runs earned an RPR in excess of 120. In his own remarkable season, Arrogate, in contrast, raced in Graded company just twice - receiving high RPRs on both occasions.

Only three of Songbird’s eight Graded wins were assessed at 120 or better, although she wasn’t asked too many serious questions in most of those runs.

3. Visual impression

Top ten horses with the biggest aggregate winning margins since 2011

Rank

Name

Aggegate

Year

Age

Sex

Wins

Trainer

Distance

Surface

1

Songbird

38.5

2016

3

filly

7

Jerry Hollendorfer

8

Dirt

2

American Pharoah

36.5

2015

3

colt

7

Bob Baffert

10

Dirt

3

Untapable

33.25

2014

3

mare

6

Steven Asmussen

8

Dirt

4

Groupie Doll

25

2012

4

mare

5

William Bradley

7

Dirt

4

Condo Commando

25

2014

2

filly

2

Rudy Rodriguez

9

Dirt

6

Game On Dude

24

2013

6

gelding

5

Bob Baffert

10

Dirt

7

Verrazano

22.75

2013

3

horse

4

Todd Pletcher

8

Dirt

8

Wise Dan

22.5

2012

5

gelding

5

Charles LoPresti

8

Turf

9

Hilda's Passion

22.25

2011

4

mare

4

Todd Pletcher

7

Dirt

10

Dreaming Of Julia

22

2013

3

mare

1

Todd Pletcher

8

Dirt

Data since 1/1/2011. Totals for single season in U.S. or elsewhere by U.S.-trained horse in Graded races in the U.S. or in Group/Graded races elsewhere

Here’s where Songbird comes into her own. She was so superior to the rest of the U.S. crop of 3-year-old fillies she usually beat them with ridiculous ease whenever she set foot on a racecourse. Her aggregate winning margin is greater even than American Pharoah’s in 2015.

Arrogate’s Travers victory in August, his first run at Graded level, helped him to an impressive 14 lengths aggregate for his two runs, and Chrome’s number wasn’t bad either (12.75 lengths).

4. Prolific top-level success

The U.S. runners with the most Graded stakes wins in any one season since 2011

Rank

Name

Graded wins

Year

Age

Sex

Places

Runs

Trainer

Distance

Surface

1

American Pharoah

7

2015

3

colt

8

8

Bob Baffert

10

Dirt

1

Songbird

7

2016

3

filly

8

8

Jerry Hollendorfer

8

Dirt

3

Untapable

6

2014

3

mare

6

7

Steven Asmussen

8

Dirt

3

Wise Dan

6

2013

6

gelding

7

7

Charles LoPresti

8

Turf

5

Groupie Doll

5

2012

4

mare

8

8

William Bradley

7

Dirt

5

Never Retreat

5

2011

6

mare

9

11

Chris Block

8

Turf

5

Havre De Grace

5

2011

4

mare

6

7

J Larry Jones

9

Dirt

5

Zagora

5

2012

5

mare

7

8

Chad C Brown

8

Turf

5

California Chrome

5

2014

3

horse

6

8

Art Sherman

10

Dirt

5

Catch A Glimpse

5

2016

3

filly

6

8

Mark Casse

8

Turf

5

Acclamation

5

2011

5

horse

6

7

Donald Warren

10

Turf

5

Game On Dude

5

2013

6

gelding

6

7

Bob Baffert

10

Dirt

5

Wise Dan

5

2012

5

gelding

6

6

Charles LoPresti

8

Turf

5

Game On Dude

5

2012

5

gelding

7

8

Bob Baffert

10

Cushion

5

California Chrome

5

2016

5

horse

6

6

Art Sherman

10

Dirt

Data since 1/1/2011. Totals for single season in U.S. or elsewhere by U.S.-trained horse in Graded races in the U.S. or in Group/Graded races elsewhere

Here Songbird is up with the Pharoah once again, level at the top of the whole pile with the 2015 Triple Crown champ on seven Graded wins in the season (both of them from eight runs). California Chrome was pretty prolific too, but he had just the six Graded runs. The 5-year-old actually won seven from eight through the year, but two of those wins (one in Dubai in February, the other at Los Alamitos in December) were not in Graded races.

So would Chrome be the right winner? We asked TRC readers in a poll after the BC Classic in November if they favored California Chrome or Arrogate, and the result was pretty unequivocal - 83 percent voted for Chrome. And TRC correspondent Bob Ehalt was another Chrome supporter when he assessed the Eclipse Awards in an article here earlier this month.

In any normal year, the case for Songbird would be strong. Which of our four criteria are the most important is, of course, a matter for debate, but the filly comes out top in two of them and there’s no doubt she’s an exceptional racehorse. But her defeat, narrow as it was, at the hands of Beholder in that mighty Distaff can’t help but count against her, and anyway the general feeling is that this isn’t a normal year.

Maybe Songbird will get another shot at the main award in 12 months’ time.

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