The teams that excel at Royal Ascot - and those that need to do a lot better

There are no prizes for guessing who leads each of the four categories in TRC’s Royal Ascot Rankings. Yes, the fearsome foursome of Ryan Moore, Coolmore Partners, Aidan O’Brien and Galileo are once again out on their own in these classifications of Jockeys, Owners, Trainers and Sires formed of the six Royal meetings from 2011 to 2016.

But these numbers are still well worth studying ahead of the great meeting next week, for they highlight some outlying performance specific to the meeting, plus some underperformance which those responsible will be looking to reverse.

Note that the rankings tables are formatted slightly different from normal. We have included a statistic ‘Top ⅓’ which tallies every horse finishing either in the first three or the top third of runners. This number helps to explain the rankings points by which the competitors are ranked, though it does not count towards the points.

As usual, the rankings algorithm is driven by performance measured by Racing Post Ratings – taking into account the context in which it was achieved. Again, the numbers are designed to be predictive too, so larger samples in the past are more reliable than small samples and recent data is more influential that distant past.

JOCKEYS

No fewer than 51 of Ryan Moore’s 100 rides count towards our Top ⅓ category. That is outstanding and sees the World’s #1 Jockey by our overall Global Rankings once again serene in this meeting-specific classification. Moore has had 18 Group winners, well clear of his nearest foe, William Buck (10).

Frankie Dettori has had one fewer Group winner than Buick, but his wins have come in higher grade and he has four more Top ⅓ finishers from only two more mounts. This sees him 23 points ahead of the Godolphin jockey in second place.

Dettori and Buick are split by Jamie Spencer, whose counting stats cannot rival the pair, but who is arguably the meeting’s most efficient jockey. Incidentally, other metrics concerned with riding efficiency that we have developed also point to Spencer’s patient style being particularly effective at Ascot, especially on the straight track, where big fields generate a strong gallop and the bias is often in favour of those horses challenging late.

OWNERS

Not to pile it on or anything, given their recent travails, but Godolphin are about as low in these rankings as they could be, given that size counts for something to the rankings algorithm. But only 36 per cent of Godolphin runners contribute top our Top ⅓ statistic – the lowest number in the Top Ten. To repeat, this doesn’t drive rankings points, but reflects a poor record of consistency from an operation that has greater resources than any other in the world.

Leaving the predictably outstanding performance of Coolmore Partners to one side, it is notable that Al Shaqab Racing score so highly with only 22 runners. This is an echo for the Global Rankings situation, in which the Qatar operation are third – behind Coolmore Partners and Godolphin and ahead of Juddmonte Farms and Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum.

Once again, Al Shaqab are ranked in front of the same pair, with 64 percent of their 22 runners registering in the Top ⅓ category, the most of any Top Ten competitor with 20+ runners. This reflects the resources that Al Shaqab has committed to racing in Europe.

Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum also has a notably moderate recent record at Royal Ascot. The replacement of former stable jockey Paul Hanagan with Jim Crowley will give his operation chance to see whether a new rider makes a difference at the margin. A record of two wins from 56 runners since 2011 might be reason to ponder the effect of the rider on its own, but not when only 39 per cent of those runners have scored in the Top ⅓ statistic.

The remainder of Top Ten is made up of owners whose performance is far less certain to be repeated than desirable because of the small sample size. This is reflected by rankings points totals well below 1000 – our benchmark of the elite.

TRAINERS

Notably, the top three points scorers in this category are in a class of their own, with a Grand Canyonesque 80-point gap to the fourth. Aidan O’Brien is well known to the TRC Global Rankings algorithm too, but the Royal Ascot performance of Sir Michael Stoute is of the level that might have been recorded by our overall classifications had we been operating a decade ago.

Sir Michael has a higher Win PC than O’Brien and a comparable Top ⅓ PC and he only scores 54 fewer points because he has fielded about half the number of runners (42 to 97) and has seven fewer Group winners (10 to 17) at a lower level.

You will notice that neither of the Godolphin trainers Saeed bin Suroor and Charlie Appleby make the Top Ten, though the latter surely must move up soon because the majority of Godolphin 2-year-old resources seem to have been funnelled towards him rather than bin Suroor.

Lambourn trainer Clive Cox is assembling an impressive Royal Ascot record in terms of efficiency, while U.S.-trainer Wes Ward is again shipping in a strong team in a bid to win his fifth Royal Ascot Group race.

SIRES

Galileo leads, as you might expect, but his numbers at Ascot are certainly not as impressive as his overall record. His Top ⅓ PC is not that of the super sire, but this is all relative – he is still 36 points clear and still the dominant sire in European racing whether at the Royal meeting or elsewhere.

It’s interesting to see that his main European rival Dubawi is only sixth. The latter has the same strike rate and a very similar Top ⅓ PC but he has only four Group winners to Galileo’s seven and these have come at a lower level.

A pair of Juddmonte stallions, Dansili and Oasis Dream are second and third, with Caravaggio’s sire, Scat Daddy, fourth.

One might infer from these rankings a bias towards stallions whose stock favour fast ground, notwithstanding the presence of Montjeu and Kyllachy. When conditions are on top at Royal Ascot, it really is a festival of pace and speed.