Will Caravaggio benefit from the Scat Daddy factor at Ascot? Aidan O’Brien’s star sprinter returns to the Royal racecourse on Saturday for a rematch with Harry Angel in the Group 1 QIPCO British Champions Sprint Stakes. This is one of the highlights of a fabulous card.
To throw some light on likely events, we have recast the TRC Global Rankings as if the only course in the world is Ascot. Except, rather than the usual three-year rankings window, we have used all data since 2011.
The numbers are automatically scaled by the algorithm so that they are directly comparable with the main rankings, issued earlier this week. We will examine Sires, Trainers and Jockeys, and, where evidence points to some kind of ‘Ascot’ effect, investigate the statistical evidence that underpins our calculations.
SIRES
Caravaggio’s sire, Scat Daddy, is a staggering 7 out of 14 in Group races at Ascot. This gives him 1097 TRC ranking points, compared with the 1000 points he has in this week’s classifications. That is a very large difference, but it is doubtless some function of his effect as a stallion, and that of Wes Ward (four winners) and Aidan O’Brien (three winners) as trainers.
Caravaggio himself has contributed two wins from two starts: last year’s Group 2 Coventry Stakes and this season’s Group 1 Commonwealth Cup – both over the Champions Sprint trip of six furlongs.
Outside of Group races – which are the exclusive concern of TRC Global Rankings – Scat Daddy has had only one more runner at Ascot: the filly Con Te Partiro, for Ward, who beat 23 runners in the latest Sandringham Handicap (listed) at Royal Ascot.
In total, the 15 bets a faithful fan of Scat Daddy would have placed at Ascot have yielded a 27,600 percent return on investment. Tasty.
On the debit side, it is interesting that the TRC algorithm is down on both super sires Galileo (53 points less at Ascot than in main rankings) and Dubawi (46 points less at Ascot) – currently the #1 and #2 sires in the world.
Galileo’s record in all races at Ascot over his career is 44–342 (12.9 percent). According to the racing database Proform Professional (www.proformracing.com), his runners should have won 49 races in the same sample, based on their exchange prices.
Using the binomial distribution, one can find there is a 25 percent chance this could happen at random, which is well below the level required for statistical significance at the usual levels required.
As for Dubawi, the evidence of all races including those at Group level is contrary to the TRC rankings at Ascot: his runners have hugely exceeded market expectation at the Berkshire track: career record 46-238 (19.3 percent), compared with only 28 expected.
This is highly statistically significant to the positive. The mare Journey – second and first in the last two renewals of the QIPCO British Champions Fillies & Mares Turf – looks to have a great chance to add to this total on Saturday.
JOCKEYS
The difference between Ryan Moore’s TRC ranking points at and away from Ascot is not significant – he is just as deadly at Ascot as anywhere else, even allowing for one or two misadventures at the track – notably Found in the 2015 Champion Stakes - to which even the greats are prone.
It is worth commenting on the excellent record of the Irish ace Pat Smullen and Godolphin’s William Buick. For one, Smullen was terrific on the horse whom Found had no real shot to catch in the race mentioned above, Fascinating Rock.
Smullen’s trademark ride on grass is rather like Jerry Bailey’s was on dirt: he prefers to stay within striking distance of the lead, and is quick to move when the spectre of trouble in running looms.
Overall, a record of 10-53 (19 percent) in Group races is outstanding. Smullen obviously keeps his best for the important moments, for he has gone a sobering 1-48 in other races since 2011.
Buick is 17-126 (13 percent) in some tough, large-field races in the period under consideration, good for 1029 TRC ranking points at Ascot, compared with only 997 overall. In all races, his record is an outstanding 50-315 (15.9 percent) with only 39 expected from their exchange prices.
TRAINERS
Aidan O’Brien doesn’t have the strongest record on Champions day, but that is probably just noise. He is certainly at least as effective at Ascot as elsewhere judged by these figures.
Richard HannonJr and James Fanshawe deserve a mention, for sure. The former saddles Barney Roy in a loaded Group 1 QIPCO Champion Stakes. He is only 7-76 in Group races at Ascot, since taking over the licence from his father at the end of 2013. This is 32pts less than his current TRC Global Ranking points score of 974pts, but don’t forget he has been rated a lot higher than this in the past. His stable has undoubtedly lost some traction in the higher echelons of the sport, for he ranked #6 in the charts of September 20, 2015, and had 1012pts.
Barney Roy is out to reverse that trend. He has not had the most optimum rides on several occasions this season and needs to deliver the kind of tour de force of his Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes performance – one of the most impressive wins of the season.
Fanshawe, who currently sits at #97 overall in this week’s rankings, is a superb target trainer. He has produced Deacon Blues, Seal Of Approval and The Tin Man to win at this fixture, and he is sure to have the last-named 5-year-old spot on to defend his title in the Champions Sprint.