It looks formidable on paper, but how strong really is the European challenge for this weekend's World Championships at Churchill Downs? Nicholas Godfrey, a past winner of the Joe Hirsch Award for Outstanding Writing at the Breeders’ Cup, examines the evidence.
When the Breeders’ Cup began in 1984 at Hollywood Park, only two of the seven races were turf contests – and even those, the Turf and the Mile, were included largely as sop to Europeans.
Now, three and a half decades later, precisely half the two-day extravaganza is run on the green stuff, with the new Juvenile Turf Sprint taking the number of turf contests to seven.
With that in mind, hopes are high of significant European success this weekend at Churchill Downs as a record number of visitors line up for the 35th edition of North America’s end-of-season championships.
Although sheer weight of numbers suggests the European team can play a major role, this not just about quantity; with dual Arc winner Enable and top 3-year-old Roaring Lion leading the charge, there is no shortage of quality either.
Perhaps that is why the Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, Mike Watchmaker, has been waving the white flag on a regular basis. Reflecting on the shock 23/1 victory of Next Shares in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland in early October, he came to a straightforward conclusion.
“I know it seems like I say this every week,” wrote Watchmaker, “but I can’t recall ever seeing our male turf division in such a state of disarray, and more vulnerable to the taking by European shippers of any account.”
Yet the lessons of history tell us it is rarely as simple as that. Britain and Ireland seem to have got their collective acts together in recent years, but the memory lingers of any number of big names who travelled to the U.S. amid huge expectations only to run as if they had left their form somewhere in the luggage hold after exiting their transatlantic flight.
It is a truism, but it bears repeating ad nauseam: American racing is a whole different ball game for European visitors, for whom the Breeders’ Cup can be an afterthought following major events in Ireland and at ParisLongchamp and Ascot.
Can Euros be relied upon to reproduce their best form in alien territory, on a tighter track than they’ve ever seen? And that is before we get to the vagaries of post-position draw and the will-they-won’t-they question of Lasix. The weather forecast is another issue: with rain about, a potentially sloppy main track surely cannot help the Euros in the Classic, while those expecting fast ground on the turf course may be disappointed.
Then there is Aidan O’Brien and his formidable Ballydoyle operation. Nobody has more horses entered than the Irish behemoth, and no European trainer has been responsible for more winners. Only U.S. training giants Bob Baffert and D Wayne Lukas stand above him in terms of Cup victories.
Then again, no European trainer has saddled anywhere near as many Breeders’ Cup runners as O’Brien, who habitually arrives mob-handed; his overall record: 12-for-124 (16 seconds, ten thirds).
Despite immense firepower, O’Brien has never won a Breeders’ Cup fillies’ race (Found won the Turf against males); indeed, nearly all his victories come from just two races, the Turf (six) and the Juvenile Turf (four). The other two are Johannesburg’s Juvenile (on dirt) and Man Of Iron in the now-defunct Marathon (on synthetic).
By Coolmore’s own sky-high standards, a strike-rate just below ten percent suggests a selective approach is sensible when assessing O’Brien’s various darts at the Breeders’ Cup board. His runners habitually use Lasix in the States.
Here, then, is a look at the European challenge, along with odds from both sides of the Atlantic.
EUROPEAN-BASED TRAINERS WITH MORE THAN ONE BC WIN
*all wins with one horse (Goldikova and Ouija Board)
JUVENILE TURF SPRINT
ALSO ELIGIBLE
*Best Racing Post Rating achieved in career; ** morning line odds as per breederscup.com; ***odds generally available with British bookmakers
EUROPEAN RECORD
Although this is the inaugural running of this event as a Breeders’ Cup contest, a similar race on the undercard at Del Mar last term resulted in a 1-2-3-4 for the visitors, led home by the Aidan O’Brien-trained Declarationofpeace.
STAR ATTRACTION
Soldier’s Call, joint-top-rated on Racing Post Ratings alongside So Perfect, looks a really smart sprinting juvenile after a string of victories in high-class company. Blessed with blistering speed, he nearly made all against his elders (in receipt of weight) in the G1 Prix de l’Abbaye on Arc day, where he was caught close home after another fine effort. He will be ridden by Oisin Murphy, the boy wonder of British racing, who has taken the G1 scene by storm this season in his role as retained rider for Qatar Racing (see Roaring Lion). On the downside, Solider’s Call will surely be taken on up front at Churchill Downs and has never raced beyond 5f.
BEST OF THE REST
Racing around such tight turns is clearly a worry and it may take a while for some of the Euros to get organised. Nevertheless, So Perfect’s Ballydoyle stablemate Sergei Prokofiev holds a sound chance based on his recent G3 win at Newmarket, where he stormed home from off a strong pace, which is a certainty here.
HOME COMFORTS
Operating in his own backyard, Royal Ascot’s favourite adopted son, Wesley Ward, saddles a third of the field, headed by Shang Shang Shang, who touched off Pocket Dynamo in the G2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot, which was a ‘Win and You’re In’ qualifier for this race. After getting bumped at the gate, Strike Silver swooped from last to win at Keeneland on his turf debut.
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
*Best Racing Post Rating achieved in career; ** morning line odds as per breederscup.com; ***odds generally available with British bookmakers
EUROPEAN RECORD: 2 wins 10 races (20%)
Not as formidable as might be imagined, given the annual firepower. French-trained Flotilla in 2012 and Charlie Hills’s Chriselliam a year later are the only visitors to have scored.
STAR ATTRACTION
Aidan O’Brien has never got closer than Heart Shaped, nosed out by Maram in the first running in 2008, but he saddles another serious contender in Just Wonderful, a daughter of Dansili now taking high rank in betting for next year’s 1000 Guineas after looking a cut above in the G3 Rockfel Stakes on her most recent start. She can be expected to improve for the step up to a mile.
BEST OF THE REST
La Pelosa and Lily’s Candle are both top-level winners, having won Breeders’ Cup Challenge races in Canada (Natalma Stakes) and France (Prix Marcel Boussac) respectively. Neither looked especially strong, however, and top-rated according to Racing Post Ratings is actually The Mackem Bullet for Cup neophyte Brian Ellison. The draw has been really unkind to the unbeaten East, an unexposed daughter of Frankel who has looked really smart in her two outings so far. On that basis, she could be a price play.
HOME COMFORTS
U.S. champion trainer Chad Brown has been the dominant force here with four winners. He will be looking for his fourth win in five years with likely favourite Newspaperofrecord, a six-length winner on yielding ground at Belmont last time out in the same G2 contest Brown also used for previous winners Lady Eli and New Money Honey. Interestingly, the daughter of Lope De Vega was picked up for 200,000gns as a yearling at Tattersalls last year.
JUVENILE TURF
*Best Racing Post Rating achieved in career; ** morning line odds as per breederscup.com; ***odds generally available with British bookmakers
EUROPEAN RECORD: 7 wins from 11 races (63.6%)
No other Breeders’ Cup race has been as kind to transatlantic visitors. Aidan O’Brien has absolutely thrived, with four wins and four seconds.
STAR ATTRACTION
By reputation and rating, none of O’Brien’s previous winners came here on as lofty a perch Anthony Van Dyck, 11 pounds clear of any other runner in the race on RPRs. Like Mendelssohn last year and 2016 runner-up Lancaster Bomber, this son of Galileo was placed last time in the Dewhurst Stakes, in effect Europe’s 2-year-old championship event. He achieved his best rating (RPR 119) on a rain-softened surface, always a possibility in Kentucky at this time of year. The draw, though, makes life tricky.
BEST OF THE REST
Godolphin’s Line Of Duty, whose trainer Charlie Appleby won this with Outstrip, is a dark horse. A progressive son on Galileo, he stepped up again to win a G3 at Chantilly on his most recent outing. There’s scope for improvement; he’s also been virtually overlooked on the U.S. morning line. Team Valor bought French G3 winner The Black Album with this race in mind.
HOME COMFORTS
Among those bidding to thwart messrs O’Brien and Appleby will be the Todd Pletcher-trained Current, who beat fellow contender Henley’s Joy with a last-gasp effort in the G3 Dixiana Bourbon at Keeneland, plus Pilgrim Stakes winner Forty Under.
TURF SPRINT
*Best Racing Post Rating achieved in career; ** morning line odds as per breederscup.com; ***odds generally available with British bookmakers
EUROPEAN RECORD: 0 wins from 10 races (0%)
No European horse has made the first three here since Diabolical finished second for Godolphin in the first running, and neither of this year’s representatives hold persuasive claims, for all that this race can be a crapshoot.
HOME COMFORTS
Last year’s 1-2-3 return for more, but course-and-distance scorer Will Call appeals at likely value odds after an eyecatching effort to almost run down Bucchero after challenging out wide from miles off the pace last time out. Kentucky-based Brad Cox is an up-and-comer in the U.S. training ranks.
MAKER’S MARK FILLY & MARE TURF
*Best Racing Post Rating achieved in career; ** morning line odds as per breederscup.com; ***odds generally available with British bookmakers
EUROPEAN RECORD: 8 wins from 19 races (42%)
Always a race where the Euros fancy their chances, but nevertheless the prize has stayed at home six times in the last ten years – including in 2010 and 2011, the last two occasions on which Churchill Downs was the host venue. It is also worth noting that this race is back up to 1m3f after being run at shorter in recent years owing to track configurations.
STAR ATTRACTION
Charlie Appleby, successful last year with Wuheida, fields an intimidating option in Wild Illusion. Equally effective at 1m2f or 1m4f, the Oaks runner-up comprehensively overturned previous form with rival Magic Wand last time out in the Prix de l’Opera, where she was driven out to take her career record to four wins (three G1s) from eight starts. The daughter of Dubawi is versatile as regards ground conditions as well.
BEST OF THE REST
Breeders’ Cup success is a conspicuous absence on the resume of renowned globetrotter Dermot Weld, who has avoided other options to keep the Aga Khan’s Eziyra fresh for this. A double-figure draw is a serious negative at this trip, however.
HOME COMFORTS
After three victories in six years, Chad Brown won’t be giving this up without a fight. Morning-line favourite Sistercharlie has long been identified as the stable’s premier hope; she led home a 1-2-3 for Brown on her most recent outing when landing the Beverly D at Arlington.
However, she missed any final prep with a foot bruise (only minor hiccup, says the stable) and there is not a massive amount on the book between her and 6-year-old stable companion Fourstar Crook, whose record this year reads 12121. Only 5/1 on the morning line, she trades at double-figure odds with UK bookmakers and looks a serious each-way option.
MILE
*Best Racing Post Rating achieved in career; ** morning line odds as per breederscup.com; ***odds generally available with British bookmakers
ALSO ELIGIBLE
EUROPEAN RECORD: 13 wins in 34 runnings (38.2%)
Don’t be misled by a near 40 percent strike rate for Europe: the Mile has rarely been a happy hunting ground for British- and Irish-trained horses, who have not won since 1995 with Ridgewood Pearl at Belmont Park. On the other hand, France has provided no fewer than ten winners.
STAR ATTRACTION
Given her antecedents as a French-trained filly representing Freddy Head, associated with Mile-winning superstars Miesque (as jockey) and Goldikova (as trainer), then it is no surprise that Polydream has been attracting so much attention. With her fillies’ allowance, the Wertheimers’ 3-year-old daughter of Oasis Dream comes out on top according to RPRs by virtue of her convincing victory in the G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville in August. ‘Long’ sprinters of her ilk have often done well in this tight-turn Mile, and her recent down-the-field display behind Mile rival One Master at ParisLongchamp is easily forgiven as she found more trouble in running than Mary Decker.
BEST OF THE REST
Little short of an army of candidates from Britain and Ireland, with not much between them on RPRs. They are headed by Expert Eye, whose trainer Sir Michael Stoute must always be feared at this meeting; he also saddles dual G2 winner Mustashry. Always a much vaunted colt, Expert Eye is right back to his best after a few early-season blips; faster ground would suit.
HOME COMFORTS
A G1 winner at two, three and four, Oscar Performance benefited from the easiest of leads to dominate the Woodbine Mile on his last outing but has often done the same against better rivals (including when overcoming a wide draw to win the Juvenile Turf in 2016). His worst career performance, though, came on good ground when he was taken on for the lead at Churchill last year. Any rain is bad news.
BETTING ANOMALIES
Nowhere is the disparity between the U.S. morning line and UK bookmakers more obvious. American-trained horses like Californian visitor Catapult and Chad Brown’s Analyze It have been trading at 25/1 and 20/1 respectively in Britain; they are on the second line of betting on the Breeders’ Cup morning line at 6/1! Next Shares, who loved the soft with a shock victory at Keeneland last time, is 25/1 in the UK.
LONGINES TURF
*Best Racing Post Rating achieved in career; ** morning line odds as per breederscup.com; ***odds generally available with British bookmakers
EUROPEAN RECORD: 21 wins from 34 runnings (61.8%)
Even allowing for some expensive disasters over the years, the European record here is excellent. Aidan O’Brien farms the race, having won six times altogether; Andre Fabre, the man who says ‘non’ to Lasix, has three victories. John Gosden, though, is 0-for-7.
STAR ATTRACTION
With at least 11lb in hand of her rivals on RPRs (including fillies’ allowance), Enable is odds-on favourite in Britain – despite the fact that she must overcome a notorious negative trend in that no Arc winner has ever followed up in the Breeders’ Cup, a litany of failure featuring seven horses in the Turf (among them Dancing Brave, Dylan Thomas and Golden Horn) and one in the Classic (Sakhee). Only one Arc winner, Found, has ever won at the Breeders' Cup, but her win in the Turf was the year before her victory in Paris.
The Arc was Enable’s prime target and it was no easy task getting her there off just a single prep run, after which she missed another piece of work. As such, she might not even have been 100 percent fit in Paris; either way, a strict reading of the form says she has yet to reproduce her 2017 form (her Arc win was worth 122 on RPRs, 7lb lower than 2017), despite a dream run through at Longchamp as her chief rivals found trouble. She gets Lasix.
BEST OF THE REST
Even if Enable does not bring her A-game, anything other than an overseas success would have to be regarded as a surprise. Ballydoyle filly Magical has followed the same path as Found three years ago and looks a value alternative. Fabre’s three winners include two 4-year-olds who finished fourth in the Arc (In The Wings and Shirocco); Waldgeist, aged four, was fourth in the Arc, while last year’s winner Talismanic is slipping in under the radar once again.
HOME COMFORTS
A change of tactics helped Channel Maker break his G1 duck after setting the pace for a 4½-length win in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont over this 1m4f; soft ground may have helped and he’s by a previous winner of this race (English Channel). Still, this looks marked for export.
CLASSIC
*Best Racing Post Rating achieved in career; ** morning line odds as per breederscup.com; ***odds generally available with British bookmakers
ALSO ELIGIBLE
EUROPEAN RECORD: 2 wins from 34 races (5.9%)
Despite several near-misses – think Ibn Bey, Giant’s Causeway and Sakhee – the only European winner of a dirt Classic remains the Andre Fabre-trained Arcangues, still the longest-priced winner in Breeders’ Cup history with his shock 133/1 success under Jerry Bailey at Santa Anita in 1993. Raven’s Pass beat Henrythenavigator during the synthetic era.
STAR ATTRACTION
Roaring Lion, a testament to the training skills of John Gosden, has come of age in the second half of the season with G1 victories in a series of Europe’s top all-aged races. Clearly the top-rated 3-year-old in Europe, he is also joint-top-rated in the Classic on RPRs, but he has never seen dirt before and will take kickback on the inner. A sloppy track would add to worries and there is little encouragement to be gleaned from the pedigree either concerning his aptitude for dirt. Roaring Lion may be U.S.-bred, but his sire Kitten’s Joy (a grandson of Sadler’s Wells) is rightly renowned for his progeny’s exploits on turf. The dam Vionnet was placed in three Graded events, all on turf. Whether he roars or not, the Lion will be running Lasix-free.
BEST OF THE REST
Mendelssohn represents Ballydoyle’s most focused attempt to win a race long coveted by Coolmore, who in the past have often made an unfortunate habit of trying top-class turf horses on the off-chance they might like the dirt.
A half-brother to three-time Breeders’ Cup heroine Beholder, the son of Scat Daddy has raced exclusively in the States since his UAE Derby romp. Although he hasn’t won, he has shown he belongs at the top level on dirt, and could be called the best horse in the race after hanging on for third after an enervating speed duel in a brutal edition of the Jockey Club Gold Cup. But will such a tough race leave its mark? Beware any rain: he hated the slop at Churchill Downs the last time he was there in the Kentucky Derby.
Dubai World Cup winner Thunder Snow returns to the scene of his ignominy in last year’s Kentucky Derby, where he performed a bucking bronco routine on leaving the starting gate. It is disconcerting he couldn’t win the Jockey Club after being beautifully ridden from off the pace.
HOME COMFORTS
No clear standout among the home team, for whom Accelerate is a lukewarm favourite after his car-park draw; trainer John Sadler’s 0-for-41 Cup record hardly inspires confidence, either. The 1m2f distance is a question for converted sprinter Mind Your Biscuits but he has been the subject of rave reports from workouts on the Churchill Downs surface and might be worth a look at decent odds as he stretches out again.
Before injury intervened, McKinzie was rated above now-retired Triple Crown winner Justify among Bob Baffert’s 3-year-olds; Baffert also has last year’s third West Coast, set to improve for his recent run after a six-month layoff.