In last week’s first edition of this series, Verry Elleegant and Anthony Van Dyck provided a reverse exacta for TRC Global Rankings for Horses in the G1 Caulfield Cup. This week’s featured contest is the G1 Cox Plate over a mile and a quarter – Australia’s premier weight-for-age contest.
Here, the mare Arcadia Queen and gelding Kolding are the one-two, but this contest seems far more open, especially as it is run at tricky Moonee Valley. The layout of the Melbourne circuit is such that the draw often has a big say in this contest, so it is included in parentheses after the name of the contestants, who are presented here in rankings order:
#96 Arcadia Queen (8)
#98 Kolding (10)
#154 Aspetar (3)
#163 Buckhurst (11)
#252 Russian Camelot (15)
#267 Fierce Impact (12)
#281 Mugatoo (9)
#284 Sir Dragonet (7)
#352 Armory (6)
#352 Humidor (14)
#374 Probabeel (2)
#406 Master Of Wine (1)
#929 Nettoyer (13)
#2711 Grandslam (5)
It is not tough to see why the rankings algorithm places Arcadia Queen at the top of the pile in what doesn’t seem a top-notch running of this event based on prior form. Not only was she very impressive in the G1 Neds at Caulfield last time, but she has won half the ten races contested that count towards out classifications. And her 11th in the 2019 Everest at Randwick (which we count as a G1 even though it is officially ungraded) can be discounted readily because the six-furlong journey is well short of her best.
But does this qualify Arcadia Queen as the most likely winner? Not necessarily. If we are widening the analysis from who deserves to be ranked higher than whom (in a neutral context) to specific circumstances, then the particular dynamics of the event need to be considered. And here at Moonee Valley, it seems prudent to factor the barrier draw and a horse’s preferred style of running.
Last year, the Japanese superstar Lys Gracieux circled the field to win the Plate but she was much the best runner. In this year’s field, no horse profiles as capable of a similar feat, so draw, pace and run-style should be important.
MOST LIKELY WINNER Arcadia Queen
In their last two races, Arcadia Queen and Russian Camelot have alternated impressive performances at the expense of the other at Caulfield.
First, Russian Camelot landed the odds in the G1 Underwood, seeming to confirm his status as Australia’s most exciting horse. But then he was run over in cold blood by Arcadia Queen in the G1 Neds.
Was there a legitimate excuse? The mare was stepping up to a mile and a quarter for the first time and appeared to have way too much speed for Russian Camelot after a moderate pace to the home straight. If you knew nothing else about the two horses, there is no way you could entertain the loser as a candidate to gain revenge.
But Russian Camelot could easily redeem his reputation here – and climb up the rankings as a result. He tends to race too freely in his races and, with his pedigree in mind, it seems like a good gallop to chase and some cover will really suit this son of Camelot. The pace could well be perfect, but the cover bit? He’s drawn very wide in 15.
Arcadia Queen, who is from the powerful Western Australia team of Grant and Alana Williams (world #22) and will be ridden once again by world #19 jockey William Pike, came from last in the Neds, but she has previously shown herself more versatile than this. Perhaps, as connections know the 5-year-old daughter of Pierro stays a mile and a quarter, they will have the confidence to ride her more forwardly.
VALUE PICK Aspetar
Two things would worry you as a potential backer of the British raider Aspetar: first, his tendency to race too freely could rear its head again, particularly in the style of race typical in Australia; second, though an inside draw is an advantage in theory, will he actually get a run through when he needs it?
Perhaps those two factors are enough to disqualify the Roger Charlton-trained gelding from the status thrust open him here. But, in terms of the rate of improvement his form describes, it is hard to find his equal in the field. We have him third-in here on the rankings behind the more exposed pair Arcadia Queen and Kolding, but that pair have more than 90 horses above them globally and there is plenty of room for an improver to eclipse their standing.
Aspetar, who will have the assistance of Australian world #24 rider Damian Lane, was very impressive in the G2 York Stakes back home last time. The vanquished included world #82 Telecaster, but we judged that horse not to have given his running, so Aspetar improved his ranking to only #154. But that is the highest we have ranked him yet, including after he won the G1 Preis Von Europa at Cologne last year, so it is obvious that he is on an upward curve.
