The international handicappers have yet to be convinced, but here at TRC we have no doubt: Contrail, who became the third winner of the Japanese Triple Crown this century on Sunday, is now the world’s number one racehorse.
His points total may as yet be unexceptional in historical terms - it is nearly 200 behind the figures achieved in their pomp by Winx, Enable and American Pharoah in the lifetime of these rankings, and indeed it is still short of the highest numbers of the best Japanese horses in that lifetime (Orfevre and Lord Kanaloa, neither of whom reached #1) - but we have a bit of a lull in international racehorse achievement at present and a horse with the lustre that Contrail now has is certainly value for 1300-plus points, which is more than any other rival can muster as of the final week of October 2019.
It may all change in just over a week’s time - a number of contenders are set to strut their stuff at the Breeders’ Cup, and Contrail won’t be active again until at least November 29 (Japan Cup) - but let’s pause for a moment to appreciate exactly what a crowning glory the colt’s victory in the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St Leger) on Sunday represents.
Some (particularly those who tend to shrug off equine achievement outside western-focused racing nations) may question his right to stand above the likes of Enable, Ghaiyyath, Magical, Maximum Security and Authentic by highlighting the apparent weakness of Sunday’s opposition (not one of his 17 rivals has yet earned a place in the TRC top 500), or Contrail’s relatively low rating in the Longines World’s Best Racehorse Rankings (he’s on 122 - for his easy win in the Tokyo Yushun - which is only the joint 17th best number awarded worldwide so far in 2020, for what that is worth). Both those arguments are irrelevant.
In emulating his sire, Deep Impact (2005), and Orfevre (2011), as a 21st century Japanese Triple Crown champion, Contrail has earned a place alongside both those huge talents as one of the finest racehorses produced in the Far East since the turn of the century.
And the TRC maths recognises that, even allowing for an international rating that will surely diminish quickly in the rear-view mirror once the colt is asked to compete against older horses. Which is why he has deposed the now-retired Enable as world #1.
So far he has answered every question posed, comfortably outmanoevring big fields of the best runners his country can throw at him. He has raced seven times and won each one - four at G1, one G2 and one G3. He was rated his country’s joint-best juvenile last year together with the much-vaunted Heart’s Cry colt Salios, then beat Salios in the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) in April and the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) at the end of May. Salios had been considered a potential Triple Crown winner himself going into 2020, but he had the misfortune to be born in the same year as Contrail. He is world-ranked #83 currently, but make no mistake, he is likely to emerge as a force to be reckoned with in the coming months.
Contrail’s win at Kyoto may not look particularly impressive in the video below, considering that the tenacious runner-up, Aristotoles, had no international profile before the race, never having contested a Graded race, but Contrail is doing something here that no top-class animal is ever asked to do anywhere else in the world these days - race over a distance just short of two miles.
The Kikuka Sho is run over a mile and seven furlongs, further even than the English St Leger, which has long been shunned by connections of horses of the highest quality, and not just because of stamina worries.
In most prominent racing nations even a win over a mile and a half can compromise a horse’s potential stallion value. There are no such fears in the land of the rising pedigree, however. As in the U.S., the Triple Crown is still the ultimate aim in Japanese racing, and that win over such a punishing, character-building trip is still something to be cherished.
Aristoteles, benefiting from assistance of world #2 jockey Christophe Lemaire, had impressed punters enough in two wins before the Kikuka Sho to go off second favourite, albeit at 22/1 (Contrail was 1/10). A relatively unexposed but very progressive colt, he harried Contrail all the way and almost got to him as the champion reached deep into his reserves of stamina. Aristoteles must be another you can expect to develop into a significant G1 performer, particularly over longer trips, now the classic horses are being unleashed on the older ones.
Winning rider Yuichi Fukunaga said afterwards, “I can’t say that I was successful in keeping Contrail relaxed during the race with so much pressure from Aristoteles. It turned out to be a tough race for us with Aristoteles looking quite strong and persistent, and this race may not have been his best performance, but I kept my faith in Contrail and he certainly showed how strong he is to have maintained his position up to the end of the 3,000-metre trip.”
TRC rankings star Mark Johnston: click here for this week’s choice on horseracingplanet.com