Some years, the G1 Melbourne Cup confirms the status of a great champion; other years, it reminds us it is a two-mile handicap. And in two-mile handicaps, anything can happen.
Handicaps the world over are broken. And the Melbourne Cup, which takes place on Tuesday, is no exception. The differences in weight assigned tend to be less than the differences in talent, so that higher-weighted horses still have the advantage they would enjoy in weight-for-age races, albeit drastically reduced.
A perfect example of this was provided by last month’s G1 Caulfield Cup. This handicap was dominated by Verry Elleegant and the Irish raider Anthony Van Dyck, who were the top two horses by TRC Global Rankings going into the race before the weights were taken into account.
Worse still – and this is where this year’s Cup comes into sharp focus – assigning a racing weight to horses who are lightly raced is simply not fair to more exposed runners. The system is too easy to game – and Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien (who held the world #1 spot in TRC trainer rankings for longer than anyone else) has done it with Tiger Moth, a son of the world #1 sire on turf Galileo.
The Victoria Racing Club (VRC) should impose a rule that a horse has run in at least three Group races to qualify for inclusion.
MOST LIKELY WINNER Tiger Moth
Tiger Moth has raced just twice in Group races. He was second in the G1 Irish Derby in June before winning a G3 at Leopardstown in September as he pleased. When the weights were first revealed on September 8 – four days before Leopardstown – he did not even have enough weight to get a run. Afterwards, he received a 2.5kg penalty, which saw him get in here.
Should that have happened? It is a debate. In short, O’Brien has played his hand perfectly. It’s great planning and strategy, and it could well be rewarded.
True, he hasn’t won the Cup before. And 3-year-olds from the Northern Hemisphere don’t have a great record. But, in the cold light of day, that won’t stop O’Brien emulating his son Joseph’s win with Rekindling in 2017.
If Tiger Moth is right on the day, he will take the world of beating. When we list the runners in decreasing order of TRC Global Ranking, his outstanding chance is not obvious…
G1 MELBOURNE CUP RUNNERS BY TRC GLOBAL RANKING
#66 Verry Elleegant 57kg
#76 Anthony Van Dyck 58.5kg
#77 Tiger Moth 52.5kg
#80 Sir Dragonet 55.5kg
#197 Russian Camelot 53.5kg
#217 Avilius 57kg
#233 Twilight Payment 55.5kg
#294 Surprise Baby 54.5kg
#410 Dashing Willoughby 54.5g
#430 Vow And Declare 57kg
#495 Prince Of Arran 54.5kg
#503 Finche 54.5kg
#516 Master Of Reality 56kg
#596 Steel Prince 53.5kg
#623 The Chosen One 53.5kg
#664 Etah James 52.5kg
#719 Miami Bound 51kg
#726 Ashrun 53kg
#839 Mustajeer 55kg
#1012 Stratum Albion 55kg
#1084 Warning 53kg
#1346 Oceanex 51.5kg
#1644 King Of Leogrance 53.5kg
#1732 Persan 51kg
…but when we put the runners in order of the weight they have to carry, so that their TRC Global Ranking can be compared with others around them in the handicap, Tiger Moth’s chance becomes a lot more clear:
MELBOURNE CUP RUNNERS BY WEIGHT
#76 Anthony Van Dyck 58.5kg
#217 Avilius 57kg
#430 Vow And Declare 57kg
#516 Master Of Reality 56kg
#80 Sir Dragonet 55.5kg
#233 Twilight Payment 55.5kg
#66 Verry Elleegant 57kg
#839 Mustajeer 55kg
#1012 Stratum Albion 55kg
#410 Dashing Willoughby 54.5g
#503 Finche 54.5kg
#495 Prince Of Arran 54.5kg
#294 Surprise Baby 54.5kg
#1644 King Of Leogrance 53.5kg
#197 Russian Camelot 53.5kg
#596 Steel Prince 53.5kg
#623 The Chosen One 53.5kg
#726 Ashrun 53kg
#1084 Warning 53kg
#664 Etah James 52.5kg
#77 Tiger Moth 52.5kg
#1346 Oceanex 51.5kg
#719 Miami Bound 51kg
#1732 Persan 51kg
Leaving aside that Tiger Moth is a 3-year-old and is about 1kg worse off than an older horse with the same weight, the two horses directly above him and the two horses directly below him are ranked #664, #719, #1084 and #1346. As a reminder, Tiger Moth has reached #77 after two Group races.
VALUE PICKS Anthony Van Dyck / Verry Ellegant
Let’s stick with what the rankings are telling us. TRC Global Rankings has four horses ranked clear of the rest, though this is before the weights are taken into account. The Caulfield Cup 1-2 are the best runners in here, with Tiger Moth and the G1 Cox Plate hero Sir Dragonet close behind.
Anthony Van Dyck is one of the best quality runners to appear in this race. True, his weight reflects that, but he did not look badly handicapped at Caulfield. That was a tactical race too, so in a more expansive affair over a trip that promises to suit him, the 2019 G1 Derby winner at Epsom has a decent chance to flaunt his class.
As far as the two-mile trip is concerned, consider the manner in which he outran Stradivarius to finish second to world #3 Ghaiyyath in the G1 Coronation Cup over a mile and a half at Newmarket. He has a host of top-class efforts on his CV, including another victory over Stradivarius in the G2 Prix Foy at ParisLongchamp in September, and, if he could win the Cup, it would go down as a historic moment, on account of his being a Derby winner.
The New Zealand-bred mare Verry Elleegant is very good. She, too, has a record that contains numerous high-class efforts. She has won nine races that count towards our figures, six of which were at G1 level. All types of going seem to come alike to her, and she has a tendency to just do enough, as we saw not just at Caulfield but in the G1 Turnbull at Flemington, which came before it. That win over the track should enable jockey Mark Zahra to time her challenge.