A single victory via the Joseph O’Brien-trained Iridessa in the Filly & Mare Turf from more than 30 runners meant that last year’s Breeders’ Cup cannot go down as one of the more productive European efforts.
However, a better showing is forecast at this weekend’s 37th edition at Keeneland – not least because the autumn climate in Kentucky and the more forgiving turf ought to play to the visitors’ strengths.
The lessons of recent history suggest the Europeans will play a greater role in Kentucky: they went home with two winners at Keeneland in 2015 (Hit It A Bomb and Found) and three more at Churchill Downs in 2018 (Line Of Duty, Expert Eye and Enable).
Europe’s 2020 contingent is packed with star performers, headed by that formidable racemare Magical, aided and abetted by Classic winners such as Kameko and Siskin and high-profile G1 winners like Lord North and Tarnawa – plus a smattering of 2-year-old talent.
But here, yet again, the necessary caveats must be issued: even with 50 percent of the Cup’s 14 races now being run on turf, can Europe’s representatives be relied upon to reproduce their best form in alien territory, on a tighter track than most of them have ever seen in their lives? And what about the vexed question of Lasix and the vagaries of the post-position draw? Moreover, is the Breeders’ Cup little more than an afterthought for some of them?
Then we get to the annual conundrum that is Aidan O’Brien, who returned empty-handed in 2019 for the second Breeders’ Cup in succession.
On the other hand, O’Brien provided both transatlantic winners the last time the BC rolled into Lexington in 2015 and no European trainer has saddled nearly as many winners altogether.
Then again, nobody has saddled anywhere near as many runners as the Ballydoyle maestro. O’Brien habitually arrives mob-handed; his overall record stands at 12-for-147 for a strike rate just over eight percent, having drawn a blank at the last two editions.
EUROPE-BASED TRAINERS WITH MORE THAN ONE BC WIN
Despite the firepower at his disposal, O’Brien has never won a BC fillies’ race (Found won the Turf against males); nearly all his victories come from just two races, the Turf (six) and the Juvenile Turf (four).
O’Brien’s overall North American record in recent seasons is anything but persuasive. Athena’s surprise victory in the 2018 Belmont Oaks is O’Brien’s sole winner since Mendelssohn at BC 2017.
JUVENILE TURF SPRINT
*Best Racing Post Rating achieved in career; ** morning line odds as per breederscup.com; ***odds generally available with British bookmakers
European record: 0 win 2 races (0%)
Abysmal. A strong-looking European team were largely run off their feet at the inaugural event at Churchill Downs, where nothing was able to land a blow behind all-the-way winner Bulletin; the Euros ended up finishing 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 11. Last year was even worse at Santa Anita – 5, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12. Maybe 5½f at Keeneland is a better fit than 5f on rock-hard Californian turf.
Star turn
Mighty Gurkha’s jockey is likely to provoke more interest than any of three European runners here as the jockey is Britain’s record-breaking female, Hollie Doyle, making her U.S. debut on the Archie Watson-trained son of Aussie sprint star Sepoy. Given Doyle’s exploits in 2020 so far, it would take a brave person to suggest she won’t be able to cap her annus mirabilis with another landmark success – after all, she can probably leap tall buildings in a single bound – but this looks pretty tough for a horse who has yet to win away from synthetics. “We know he is quick, but whether he is quick by American standards we don’t know,” says former jockey Bruce Raymond, the owner’s racing manager.
Support team
Despite hanging across the track at Doncaster, Ubettabelieveit was a shock 40/1 winner of the Flying Childers Stakes. This looks a whole new ball game; wouldn’t want rain. Rowan Scott, 24, is another rider getting an unexpected chance on the biggest stage. Lipizzaner was well behind the favourite, the Wesley Ward-trained Golden Pal, at Royal Ascot.
Home is where the heart is
All about Wesley Ward, who won last year with Four Wheel Drive and now saddles four runners from ten of the 24 initial entries. Norfolk Stakes runner-up Golden Pal – “an extreme talent” according to his bullish trainer – is the clear favourite but he’ll have to overcome gate 14; indeed, all four Ward horses are eight and above. Looking elsewhere, Bodenheimer won the local prep on the lead, while Second Of July has been unfancied in winning his two. Representing unfashionable connections, he’ll probably be overlooked again.
JUVENILE TURF presented by Coolmore America
*Best Racing Post Rating achieved in career; ** morning line odds as per breederscup.com; ***odds generally available with British bookmakers
European record: 8 wins from 13 races (61.5%)
While Chad Brown won this for the first time in 2019 with Structor, no other BC race has been as kind to transatlantic visitors – with special reference to Aidan O’Brien, with four wins and four seconds.
Star turn
Aidan O’Brien has done little to embellish an otherwise fine record here in the last two years with both Anthony Van Dyck and Arizona sent off favourites before failing to trouble the scorers. Royal Ascot winner Battleground has achieved less than them at the same stage of his career, but it isn’t entirely his fault as the U.S.-bred son of War Front hasn’t raced since the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood owing to the bout of coughing that forced him out of the National Stakes. Nevertheless, he stands at the head of a muddled market for the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket in 2021. Comes to the BC fresher than several of his Ballydoyle predecessors, and this is no sort of afterthought, more a realignment of his end-of-season target. He’s also got the pedigree: like Hit It A Bomb, who won this at Keeneland in 2015, he is by War Front, and he’s out of Found, who won the Turf here in 2015, and the Arc the following year.
Support team
Deep. Several of Battleground’s fellow visitors have equalled or bettered his top RPR, and Royal Lodge Stakes winner New Mandate looks particularly interesting. As a gelding, he is ineligible for next year’s European Classics so this looks an obvious target and he has the tactical speed to thrive in the States. Frankie Dettori has won this three times in the past. Trainer Ralph Beckett also fields Devilwala, who drastically outran his odds in the Dewhurst Stakes, in effect Britain’s 2-year-old championship, where he finished ahead of Irish G2 winner Cadillac. Sealiway surely won’t get the heavy ground on which he improved markedly for a stunning eight-length G1 success at ParisLongchamp; he was beaten by unheralded compatriot Go Athletico at the same venue in September. The Lir Jet won’t struggle for pace; stamina, though, is another issue and he is drawn wide (just outside Go Athletico and Devilwala).
Home is where the heart is
Sheikh Hamdan’s Mutasaabeq rates leading U.S. contender after switching to turf for an undeniably impressive course-and-distance win in the G2 Bourbon a month ago. He circled eight wide after a slow start to run down the leaders and can expect another favourable pace set-up in a double-figure field. Gretzky The Great was a clear-cut Summer Stakes winner at Woodbine but that was surely a soft G1 for the status. Outadore stretches out after a couple of sprint wins.
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
*Best Racing Post Rating achieved in career; ** morning line odds as per breederscup.com; ***odds generally available with British bookmakers. AE - also eligible
European record: 2 wins 12 races (16.7%)
Nowhere near as formidable as might be imagined given the annual firepower. French-trained Flotilla in 2012 and Charlie Hills’s Chriselliam a year later are the only visitors to have scored; despite plenty of runners, Aidan O’Brien has never got closer than Heart Shaped, edged out by Maram in the first running in 2008.
Star turn
None of the Europeans come here with form to match the likes of Daahyeh and Albigna, who were beaten 12 months ago. Irish-trained Miss Amulet, the only of these to have won a Group race, comes closest. She’s won three of seven, ending up in smart company on the last two occasions when winning the G2 Lowther Stakes at York and then beaten only a half-length into second in the G1 Cheveley Park. Both of those races were over 6f, so the step up to a mile is a bit of a worry but she won’t lack for speed (usually leads in Europe) and acts on soft ground if it rains.
Support team
None of the other Europeans has won above listed grade, though Oodnadatta and Mother Earth are both G1-placed, while Nazuna looks an improver. Then again, she’ll need to be; the form simply doesn’t look good enough as it stands.
Home is where the heart is
The Graham Motion-trained Sharing was the sixth U.S.-trained filly in a row to score 12 months ago; Chad Brown, who had won four of the previous five, has five wins altogether. Though both trainers have runners, others arrive with more obvious claims, headed by Aunt Pearl, who shades favouritism after her dominant front-end score in the G2 Jessamine a month ago at Keeneland for Brad Cox. Several U.S. pundits make her a solid choice, ahead of the unbeaten Campanelle – a “special filly” who has “grown up a lot”, says Wesley Ward, for whom she won twice in Europe - in the Queen Mary Stakes and Prix Morny. Might a mile just stretch her stamina? Plum Ali (Christophe Clement) is also unbeaten, winning her third race in the G2 Miss Grillo at Belmont, a race responsible for four previous winners.
TURF SPRINT
*Best Racing Post Rating achieved in career; ** morning line odds as per breederscup.com; ***odds generally available with British bookmakers. AE - also eligible
European record: 0 wins from 12 races (0%)
No European horse has made the first three here since Diabolical finished second for Godolphin in the first running.
Star turn
Glass Slippers failed by only a neck to repeat last year’s Prix de l’Abbaye success on the Arc card; she earned a spot here with a ‘Win and You’re In’ success in the G1 Flying Five at the Curragh. On the plus side, she is an autumn filly who gets the sex allowance and wouldn’t mind any give in the ground; less promising, she’s no Battaash, all her form is on a straight track and these are alien surroundings indeed. Trainer Kevin Ryan is having his second BC runner after East came second in the Juvenile Fillies Turf in 2018.
Home is where the heart is
If hometown advantage counts for anything, then Leinster’s name jumps off the page. Rusty Arnold’s 5-year-old is trained at the BC venue and broke the course record over this 5½-furlong trip in last month’s G2 Shakertown. Imprimis won that race in 2019 before failing out west at the BC, but this is at home and a half-furlong longer. Converted sprinter Got Stormy got up in the last jump over course and distance last time and will get the frantic pace she needs. Oleksandra returns after four months away with a splint injury, having landed a G1 at Belmont in June; she acts with cut, and has won on the Keeneland turf. Californian-based sprint specialist Peter Miller bids to complete a four-timer in this race with Texas Wedge.
MAKER’S MARK FILLY & MARE TURF
*Best Racing Post Rating achieved in career; ** morning line odds as per breederscup.com; ***odds generally available with British bookmakers.
European record: 9 wins from 21 races (42.6%)
Always a race where the Euros fancy their chances, and the Joseph O’Brien-trained Iridessa saved blushes last year when she was the only visitor to strike at Santa Anita. That said, it is worth noting the prize has stayed at home six times in the last ten years – mainly thanks to the estimable Chad Brown, who has won four.
Star turn
Aidan O’Brien has never won this but will surely fancy his chances in a tight race with Irish 1000 Guineas winner Peaceful, who brings in top-level European form. She probably deserves a mulligan for her dismal effort on bad ground at Newmarket last time.
Support team
Godolphin’s strong-travelling Terebellum brings the highest RPR after her second place after a ding-dong battle with Circus Maximus at Royal Ascot. Extra distance holds no fears for a filly who has won three over 1m2f. Four-length Curragh winner Cayenne Pepper brings similar credentials to last year’s winner Iridessa but may just find this a touch on the sharp side and has a poor draw. Audarya is her trainer’s first BC runner after 30 years in the job; she was beaten less than a length by Tarnawa in the Prix de l’Opera, and Tarnawa may well have been made favourite if she had run here instead of the Turf.
Home is where the heart is
You can’t ignore Chad Brown, and Rushing Fall has won six G1s and loves Keeneland, where she has won five times. Unbeaten this season (and 11-for-14 lifetime), she comes in looking for a four-timer; the potential issue is whether she can last the extra half-furlong, as this is further than she’s ever been in her life. Stablemate Sistercharlie, half-sister to Arc winner Sottsass, won this in 2018 before being beaten into third as odds-on favourite 12 months ago; she may not be the force of old. Mean Mary’s trainer, Graham Motion, has long had his eyes set on this race, while Canadian Horse of the Year Starship Jubilee is just the sort to get overlooked.
FANDUEL MILE
*Best Racing Post Rating achieved in career; ** morning line odds as per breederscup.com; ***odds generally available with British bookmakers. AE - also eligible
European record: 14 wins in 36 runnings (38.9%)
Expert Eye bucked one of the more significant BC trends two years ago when he became the first British- or Irish-trained horse to win since Ridgewood Pearl at Belmont Park in 1995. France, though, has provided ten winners, among them Miesque and Goldikova; again, though, they go unrepresented in 2020.
Star turn
Whether you like his chances or not, 2000 Guineas winner Kameko brings star quality, having regained the winning thread last time out when giving weight away in a high-class field in the G2 Joel Stakes at Newmarket. There were mitigating circumstances for the Qatar Racing flagbearer’s previous defeats elsewhere: he wouldn’t stay the Derby trip in a cab (fourth was no disgrace), then he found severe traffic problems at Goodwood and again did not get home at York. There would be worse ways to claim redemption – though this son of U.S. sire Kitten’s Joy wouldn’t want much rain and Guineas winners have a shocking BC record.
Support team
A low draw is plainly better than a high draw around a mile at Keeneland and visitors fill five of the six inside boxes. Loads of chances here, though it looks an afterthought for Irish 2000 Guineas winner Siskin, set for Japanese stud duties after this swansong. He has been known to give trouble at the gate. Tough, consistent and genuine, Circus Maximus is less sexy but finished in front of both Classic winners in the Sussex Stakes, though whether a tight U.S. turf circuit really suits this galloping type remains open to question and the rail draw can be dangerous; a clean break is all but essential. This race has suited 7f specialists in the past and One Master ran a sneakily good race two years when beaten only a length in a bunch finish. Her late-running style means she’ll always need luck in running, but the finishing burst remains a potent weapon. There’s not much between her and Yorkshire-based Safe Voyage; don’t ignore the latter, whose trainer John Quinn has had his eye on this target all year.
Home is where the heart is
Last year’s winner, Uni, struck form at the right time over course and distance as she landed the G1 First Lady in preparation for her repeat assignment. Mind you, this looks tougher than 12 months ago for the habitual closer, who will be joined by G1-winning Chad Brown stablemates Digital Age and Raging Bull. While you wouldn’t want either Factor This or Halladay to get a freebie up front, they are unlikely to be doing each other any favours at the head of affairs. Ex-Argentinian Ivar will attract attention after storming home in the $1m Shadwell Turf Mile a month ago. While that was good, morning-line favourite status seems to exaggerate his chance.
LONGINES TURF
*Best Racing Post Rating achieved in career; ** morning line odds as per breederscup.com; ***odds generally available with British bookmakers.
European record: 22 wins from 36 runnings (61.1%)
An above-average U.S. turf horse denied a below-average European team in 2019 when Bricks And Mortar, the subsequent Horse of the Year, justified strong favouritism. Generally speaking, though, this is one for the visitors, who had won five of the previous six – and Main Sequence, the only ‘home’ winner, started off in England and had finished second in the Derby at Epsom.
Star turn
Seven-time G1 winner Magical, denied only by the great Enable in a memorable battle for this race two years ago, looks as good as ever at the age of five. She had excuses last time in a far from disastrous effort when only third in the Champion Stakes as the ground was boggy indeed at Ascot, where she raced further back than ideal before staying on over 1m2f behind a pair of top-class heavy-ground specialists.
Aidan O’Brien, who has won this six times, has a strong hand with Ballydoyle stablemate Mogul finally beginning to live up his 3.4 million-guinea price tag. He was quietly fancied for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe before his trainer’s runners had to be scratched over contaminated foodstuffs.
Support team
Pioneering international trainer Dermot Weld rates Tarnawa as his best-ever chance of recording his first BC success and she is feared by British bookmakers, who make her second favourite behind Magical. The Aga Khan’s ultra-progressive filly has won five of the last six, including a G1 double in France, latterly showing an impressive turn of foot on heavy ground in the Prix de l’Opera. She comes here rather than taking what looks a softer option in the Filly & Mare Turf. Top class at 1m2f, Lord North steps up in trip having produced one of the performances of the summer at Royal Ascot. Below form in soft ground last time.
Home is where the heart is
Can’t see it, in all honesty. Beaten only a head in this in 2019, United continues to thrive in weakish turf company on the west coast, but this is a different kettle of fish. Although the veteran Channel Maker arrives in the form of his life after a pair of G1 victories over 1m4f in New York, his previous efforts in this race (11th of 13 and last of 12) hardly make for a persuasive case. Ditto Arklow. Surely their chances – and I mean, all of them – are vastly overrated on the morning line; they are all double figures with UK bookmakers, and that isn’t owing to ignorance.