The Breeders’ Cup Classic at Keeneland on Saturday is the best race of this unique year of Thoroughbred racing. No other contest has had the strength in depth; no other contest will take as much winning; no other contest has as many good horses on the verge of being great horses.
While we have seen races like the Irish Champion Stakes, which pitted two top four horses against one another, there is no other race this year with so many horses whose ranking trajectory is steeply up.
This is how TRC Global Rankings rates the field, with the horse’s gate number in brackets:
#7 Maximum Security (10)
#9 Tiz The Law (2)
#17 Improbable (8)
#34 Tom’s d’Etat (4)
#36 Authentic (9)
#40 By My Standards (3)
#121 Tacitus (1)
#212 Global Campaign (7)
#255 Higher Power (6)
#2038 Title Ready (5)
MOST LIKELY WINNER Tiz The Law
While #7 Maximum Security is the highest-ranked horse according to us, he is arguably the one open to the least improvement. Has he peaked out? Well, it would be harsh to conclude that, but, since returning from the inaugural Saudi Cup, he has certainly lacked the same top-end explosion.
Having won a pair of Graded stakes at Del Mar, he went under by over our lengths to his rival and stablemate Improbable. Was he caught in a speed duel? Well, according to the fractions, the pace wasn’t enough to have brought a horse of his quality to his knees, but, at the same time, you would not take that form at face value.
#9 Tiz The Law has to carry the hopes of every racing fan who hopes for nothing more than to see a true global superstar crowned in one of the world’s top races. This season promised so much in terms of defining a top ten in our horse rankings, but so many runners have fallen by the wayside through injury or retirement to stud.
This colt has had the pause that refreshes since being eclipsed by #36 Authentic in the Kentucky Derby. He looked the winner most of the way there, but found less than expected and suffered his second defeat at Churchill Downs.
Is the key to him the switch away from there? Who knows? But, on balance, he is the best horse in this line-up when combining established talent (as reflected by his ranking) and upside (more of a subjective factor).
#17 Improbable has been a frustrating horse. He did not live up to expectations as a 3-year-old, looking a tricky ride. But he has been a revelation this season, winning G1s on his only three tries in counting races in 2020. His victims Higher Power (Hollywood Gold Cup, Santa Anita), By My Standards (Whitney Stakes, Saratoga) and Maximum Security (Awesome Again Stakes, Santa Anita) were all put in their place, but it could be crucial to observe the race was run to suit Improbable on all three occasions.
His last effort was top-class, and he could win this if reproducing it, but he must show the heart of a champion to go with his athletic ability.
What to make of #36 Authentic? He had looked something of a weak finisher prior to making all in the Kentucky Derby, in which he looked sure to be outrun by Tiz The Law in the closing stages when the latter loomed up on the home turn. But then he could not outbattle Swiss Skydiver in the G1 Preakness. True, that filly is really good and we now have her as high as #12 in our list, but it was still a shade disappointing that a Derby winner could not master her.
VALUE PICKS Tom’s d’Etat
Tom’s d’Etat is a very good horse, still improving. A ranking of #34 underestimates his talent, but that is where we find him on account of a third to Improbable and By My Standards in the Whitney Stakes. He’d actually beaten #40 By My Standards the time before in the G2 Stephen Foster Stakes, so the TRC algorithm wants him above that runner, but there is clearly an anchoring effect and so #34 is the logical place.
But you get the impression the 7-year-old hasn’t reached a peak yet in 2020. He stumbled leaving the stalls in the race mentioned above, prior to which he had won his last three Graded stakes. What’s good about him is his strong finish; looking at the make up of this field, and how history shows it can fall apart a bit in the closing stages, he looks poised to be slicing through a few late.
But you could easily cast By My Standards in the same role. He isn’t quite as good as his rival, perhaps, but he is dead game and should take advantage if any of the big guns falter.
If the giant #121 Tacitus wins, it will be very frustrating for those of us who were previously in his fan club. But, on more than one occasion now, he has brought nothing to the table off the bridle.
TRC Global Rankings for the other key Breeders’ Cup races
Longines Turf
#5 Magical
#19 Tarnawa
#44 Lord North
#70 Mogul
#96 United
#114 Channel Maker
#270 Arklow
#434 Mehdaayih
#485 Donjah
#552 Red King
Longines Distaff
#12 Swiss Skydiver
#30 Monomoy Girl
#159 Ce Ce
#195 Dunbar Road
#248 Ollie’s Candy
#372 Valiance
#377 Horologist
#460 Harvest Moon
#575 Point Of Honor
#1588 Lady Kate
FanDuel Mile
#33 Uni
#38 Ivar
#44 FactorThis
#51 Kameko
#65 Safe Voyage
#77 Circus Maximus
#90 Siskin
#132 Raging Bull
#236 Digital Age
#335 Lope Y Fernandez
#537 Halladay
#641 Casa Creed
#731 March To The Arch
Sprint
#155 Firenze Fire
#244 Diamond Oops
#270 Whitmore
#440 C Z Rocket
#498 Frank’s Rockette
#521 Collusion Illusion
#659 Yaupon
#980 Echo Town
#1262 Hog Creek Hustle
#2449 Empire Of Gold
#2552 Manny Wah
#3294 Bon Raison
Maker’s Mark Filly & Mare Turf
#20 Rushing Fall
#42 Sistercharlie
#86 Audarya
#93 Starship Jubilee
#104 Terebellum
#114 Cayenne Pepper
#137 Mean Mary
#185 Peaceful
#275 Nay Lady Nay
#335 Harvey’s Lil Goil
#400 My Sister Nat
#424 Civil Union
#498 Mucho Unusual
#505 Lady Prancealot
Big Ass Fans Dirt Mile
#215 War Of Will
#265 Mr Freeze
#282 Complexity
#288 Art Collector
#307 Sharp Samurai
#349 Mr. Money
#448 Owendale
#503 Knicks Go
#649 Silver Dust
#926 Rushie
#1038 Pirate’s Punch
#1772 Jesus’ Team