Has any racing nation ever staged a battle of three Triple Crown winners?
That’s what Sunday’s $6 million G1 Japan Cup offers when world #1 Contrail, #5 Almond Eye and #25 Daring Tact throw it down.
The betting lines up directly with TRC Global Rankings: some 48 hours before the race, bookmaker Paddy Power went 11/10 Contrail, 15/8 Almond Eye, 7/2 Daring Tact and 20/1 bar.
Sunday’s 12-furlong test is the final race of the brilliant career of Almond Eye, the 2018 winner of this race. Surely, the daughter of Lord Kanaloa would have to be in anyone’s top five horses on the planet.
The 2018 Japanese Horse of the Year has won ten of her 14 starts and is nine out of 12 in Graded stakes, including eight G1s. When sent to Dubai in 2019, she bolted up in the G1 Dubai Turf. And she is coming off a G1 Tenno Sho (Autumn) win which is right up there with anything she has done.
According to reports, Almond Eye is the only horse in Japanese history to have won eight G1s. And yet, for all that, she is twice the price of Contrail for a reason.
Contrail has earned top spot in our rankings just like U.S. superstar American Pharoah did after his own Triple Crown in 2015. This is because of the number and quality of horses he has beaten and the fact he is unbeaten after six Graded races, including four G1s. The TRC algorithm cares about the portfolio – not the single, outlandish event – because that is what drives winning in future.
When you look at the list of Japan-trained horses in the latest TRC Global Rankings, it is very hard to believe our system is overrating them as a group:
There are eight in the Top 100, compared with 27 with Modal Country (country where they have made most starts in Group/Graded races) of ‘Great Britain’, 25 with the ‘USA’ designation, 14 labelled ‘France’, nine ‘Australia’ and seven Ireland.
Leaving computations to one side for a moment, this has to be a very difficult spot for Contrail though. The son of 2006 Japan Cup winner Deep Impact aced the Japanese Triple Crown only five weeks ago, landing very short odds in the Japanese St Leger. But he finished that race tired, not surprising considering it was over a mile and seven furlongs, which cannot be an ideal preparation for a race that will require him to peak again physically so soon.
Moreover, he is a horse that puts a lot into his races. He travels up on the bridle, usually in midfield and has a keen, explosive type of running. Can he keep it all together for one more run?
The filly Daring Tact is also unbeaten (after five starts) and has arguably had a better lead-up. She completed the Fillies' Triple Crown in Japan just like Almond Eye two years ago. We cannot rank her as highly as the others because her portfolio doesn’t have the same breadth and depth, but she has a tremendous turn of foot and is very talented. And the clinching leg was a ten-furlong event, which did not seem to tax her anything like so much.
The value bet in the race is Glory Vase, who was available at 33/1 at the time of writing.
He ranks only #96 with us but is getting better and may be sitting on another improved effort coming into this race. Still an entire, he has won five out of 12, which included last year’s G1 Hong Kong Vase over a mile and a half at Sha Tin – part of the Japanese domination of that particular raceday. And he showed he was in great form for this by landing the G2 Kyoto Daishoten last up on October 11.
The sole foreign raider is Way To Paris, a French-trained horse also signing off before a stud career. He won the G1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud in June and was beaten only a head by the subsequent Arc winner Sottsass in the G1 Prix Ganay earlier the same month.