James Willoughby with his first look at how the perceived leading contenders have fared to date on our new TRC Computer Race Ratings.
The road to the Kentucky Derby 2021 is an ideal environment to trace the development of TRC Computer Race Ratings for a group of horses with strongly connected form.
Our rating system, which powers TRC Global Rankings by assigning a weighting to each race based on its quality, seeks to find the set of ratings for horses and races – as well as the effect of course, distance and going – that is most consistent with the results. The computer takes the margins between finishers at the end of each race and stretches or shrinks them according to conditions. After that, the result is reshaped so that it is better behaved mathematically.
This way, our ratings can differ from those found elsewhere because we seek to build a hierarchy based on inferred class, rather than follow some rigid system where x lengths always equal y rating points. We are also less swayed by the name of the race or its historical prestige, though in the absence of other data we will use past renewals or even similar races to provide us with a prior.
Here, we take a look at some of the races on the Derby trail so far that are of particular significance from a ratings perspective. You will be able to trace how the hierarchy builds, and we present the Top Ten ratings (correct at time of publication) at the end.
Unlike some other systems, TRC Computer Race Ratings are dynamic and reactive to additional results being added to the database, which we do every Tuesday.
WINNING PERFORMANCES FROM SELECTED RACES IN DATE ORDER
RACE ANALYSIS
G1 Hopeful Stakes (Saratoga, September 7, 7f, Fast)
Dominating from the start, Jackie’s Warrior (120) posted a high-class performance to win by 2¼ lengths, eased by at least a length to beat short-priced favourite Reinvestment Risk (114), who could not lay a glove on him, having been in touch from the start while off the rail. The pair drew ten lengths clear.
G1 Del Mar Futurity (Del Mar, September 8, 7f, Fast)
The following day on the opposite coast, Dr Schivel (113) overcame the outside post in a six-horse field. He was a little free while racing three-wide without cover exiting the back straight but worked his way round to lead in the stretch and was ridden out to score by 1¾ lengths. Why don’t we rate this strong form for the level? Because runner-up Spielberg (108), who made the running on the rail, had his limitations exposed in four starts afterwards, hardly needing to improve on this to nose out a 34/1 shot in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity – easily his best subsequent effort.
G1 American Pharoah Stakes (Santa Anita, September 26, 8½f, Fast)
The Del Mar Futurity form was immediately let down when Spielberg (104) could finish only third to Get Her Number (115) and Rombauer (112) later in the month. Spielberg never looked like justifying strong support, being asked for run behind the leaders down the back as the winner attended the pace going better. The runner-up moved into contention heading for home but ultimately had no further kick; he wasn’t disgraced when fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland.
G1 Breeders’ Futurity (Keeneland, October 3, 8½f, Fast)
This race took on additional significance as a dress rehearsal for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over the same course and distance. And Essential Quality (118) turned out not to miss his queue in the big one. He looked a very good colt throughout here, jumping out of his rider’s hands turning out of the back straight, immediately putting his stamp on the verdict entering the stretch and responding well despite looking green. He had 3¼ lengths to spare over subsequent G2 Kentucky Jockey Club winner Keepmeinmind (111) at the line, the runner-up showing a long stride as he kept on likeably. Third-placed Super Stock (108) pulled clear of the rest in a strong contest.
G1 Champagne Stakes (Belmont Park, October 10, 8f, Fast)
A replay of the Hopeful at Saratoga with the same result, Jackie’s Warrior (120) extending his margin over Reinvestment Risk (110) to five lengths and making a strong claim to be the best juvenile colt in the U.S. The one-turn mile played to his strengths and he soon shrugged off the merest threat of the runner-up, leaving the remainder strung out behind. It was clearly a high-class effort.
The runner-up was well beaten in the Juvenile afterwards but will have his day, while third-placed Midnight Bourbon (102) went on to show this form in a very good light at Fair Grounds as a 3-year-old yet had no shot here and was beaten 14 ½ lengths. His other three starts in Graded stakes yielded a win and defeats by only 2½ and 1¾ lengths and we have him rated 113 now.
G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Keeneland, November 6, 8½f, Fast)
It took the patiently ridden Essential Quality (118) long enough to master Hot Rod Charlie (115) in the straight, but he always looked likely to get there, despite covering extra ground. The winner needs to improve again to make a Classic winner, but he has loads of ability and only needs to keep learning.
Keepmeinmind (113) ran a fine race in third, keeping on well again. The big disappointment was Jackie’s Warrior (111). After two furlongs, a bunch of five horses, including him, were racing clear. They wound up 6-13-8-4-14, so the Hopeful and Champagne winner did best of them. The question is whether he can improve again over longer distances as a 3-year-old.
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (Churchill Downs, November 28, 8½f, Fast)
As long as he could regroup in just three weeks since a podium finish at Keeneland, this looked a good opportunity for likeable closer Keepmeinmind (111). Turning for home, he was going strongly in last and looked sure to play a big part. He had the field covered a furlong out but had to find plenty to subdue a game Smiley Sobotka (108), who battled on in the lead, having looked sure to be swamped turning for home. Arabian Prince (106) briefly looked a threat when a seam opened in the stretch, but he did not have the ability to take it. The placed horses finished well beaten on their next Graded stakes foray.
G2 Remsen Stakes (Aqueduct, December 5, 9f, Sloppy)
One for the local-breds as Brooklyn Strong (111) lived up to his name to dourly snatch the prize from the gallant Ten For Ten (110) as the pair drew clear. The runner-up had slipped clear entering the straight and still looked to have something left as the winner bore down on him. But Brooklyn Strong maintained his effort and Ten For Ten was forced to settle for the same runner-up berth as in the earlier G3 Nashua at the same track. It was a stirring finish, but one that seems unlikely to be significant at the Classic level.
G2 Los Alamitos Futurity (Los Alamitos, December 19, 8½f, Fast)
It’s true that Spielberg (109) had a wide trip here, but the Del Mar Futurity-second made heavy weather of this and collared longshot The Great One (108) only in the shadow of the post. The runner-up, son of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, seemed to improve for the switch from turf. Credit the winner with guts aplenty, but he does not seem to own anything like top-end closing speed.
G3 Sham Stakes (Santa Anita, January 3, 8f, Fast)
A fluent, enthusiastic and classy display from odds-on Life Is Good (112) which could have been even more convincing had his rider, Mike Smith, ridden him out. Instead, the winner was allowed to coast with a clear lead in the straight and started to idle, allowing Medina Spirit (109) to make a run at him close home. The winner was never in trouble but had to be shaken up again close home.
The first two were a long way clear and look good prospects.
G3 Lecomte Stakes (Fair Grounds, January 16, 8½f, Fast)
Three talented horses seemed to establish their local dominance when Midnight Bourbon (113), Proxy (109) and Mandaloun (108) cleared away. They raced 1-2-3 virtually throughout, in order outwards from the rail. Having controlled things, the winner slipped away early in the straight and hung on well.
Both placed horses were closing at the line and it was no surprise that the order was shuffled in the subsequent G2 Risen Star Stakes. The winner paid tribute to Champagne Stakes winner Jackie’s Warrior, who had hammered him at Belmont Park.
G3 Holy Bull Stakes (Gulfstream Park, January 30, 8½f, Fast)
You won’t see many stronger closes than Greatest Honour (113) produced to clear 5¾ lengths clear of Tarantino (99) with disappointing favourite Prime Factor (94) labouring home in third.
Having raced in mid-division, he started to run on leaving the back straight, at which point he looked a big threat on the wide outside. But the way he lengthened again to open a decisive advantage was eye-catching. The early pace was not strong enough to classify this race as a meltdown up front, but the early leaders underperformed as a group.
G3 Robert B Lewis Stakes (Santa Anita, January 30, 8½f, Fast)
What a race! Not only was this one of the most stirring contests of the year so far, but it is one of which the TRC system is clearly fond from a ratings standpoint. Medina Spirit (114) had finished with apparent vigour when Life Is Good had toyed with him in the Sham, but longer trips were always going to suit him. He was so game here, leading a talented field from the inside stall, looking as if he was starting to feel it turning for home, but battling on very bravely.
Roman Centurion (112) ran a blinder, circling the field and running on strongly to earn a narrow margin for second over Hot Rod Charlie (112). Not that the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up was at all disgraced in third.
G3 Sam F Davis Stakes (Tampa Bay Downs, February 6, 8½f, Fast)
In recent years, the Tampa Bay Derby trials have got stronger and Candy Man Rocket (112) did his bit to continue that trend. This was a professional display in which the winner sat second, going well, found a length or two to lead and ran on well. There wasn’t a lot left in the end, however, as Nova Rags (108) and, in particular, Hidden Stash (107) cut into the margin.
G2 San Vicente Stakes (Santa Anita, February 6, 7f, Fast)
While Concert Tour (111) looked the best horse throughout, judged by the way he was moving, he took a long time to assert in the straight, giving the impression he was thinking about it. Certainly, Freedom Fighter (108) would not go away, having set a strong pace. The winner has the ability to earn much bigger figures, if he has the mind.
G3 Withers Stakes (Aqueduct, February 6, 9f, Fast)
A strong stayer, Risk Taking (113) hit the line hard here for an impressive win. He was two lengths down on third-placed Capo Kane (100) turning for home, but it was clear he was rolling and he found a lot to take command in plenty of time. Overtook (102) stayed on from the back to claim a distant second but was never a serious threat.
G2 Risen Star Stakes (Fair Grounds, February 14, 9f, Fast)
The Lecomte 1-2-3 finished 3-2-1 with another sizeable margin to the rest. Mandaloun (116) was sharpened by blinkers and suited by the longer trip and posted an improved figure. He isn’t the quickest learner and could progress again.
Proxy (112) kept on well again and is going the right way. Midnight Bourbon (113) has a bit more speed than the first two but couldn’t find enough on this occasion.
THE LEADING HORSES
(Ratings correct as of February 25)
