James Willoughby uses TRC Computer Ratings to assess Saturday’s G2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds.
TRC COMPUTER RACE RATINGS FOR LOUISIANA DERBY
Hot Rod Charlie 116 110
#211 Mandaloun 115 107
Midnight Bourbon 111 110 103
Proxy 111 108
O Besos 101
Rightandjust 101
Starrinydreams 91
In the parlance of the ongoing NCAA Basketball tournament, the G2 Louisiana Derby over 9½ furlongs at Fair Grounds on Saturday is the first of the ‘regional finals’ for the Kentucky Derby on May 1.
The two ‘play-in games’ which have brought us to this point locally down at Fair Grounds are the G3 Lecomte Stakes on January 16 over 8½ furlongs and the G2 Risen Star on February 14 over 9 furlongs. Rather than recapping these in words, let’s access the TRC Computer Race Ratings database and examine the figures (Louisiana Derby runners in red) achieved.
G3 LECOMTE STAKES (Fair Grounds, 8½f, fast, January 16)
G2 RISEN STAR STAKES (Fair Grounds, 9f, fast, February 14)
By referencing the DTW (Distance To Winner) column in the charts, it should be clear just how dominant Mandaloun, Midnight Bourbon and Proxy have been in the two Fair Grounds trials run to date; in the Lecomte, there was a 8¾-length gap to the remainder, while in the Risen Star the margin was 5¾ lengths. So in which order will they finish this time?
The betting will assume that MANDALOUN will prevail. TRC Computer Race Ratings pegs his performance in the Risen Star about two lengths better than Midnight Bourbon’s in the shorter Lecomte; the latter is computed as having run roughly the same race on both occasions.
As the inputs to our computer are merely distances between runners at the finish, TRC Computer Race Ratings are just class-based figures, but it is interesting that Beyer Speed Figures – compiled at the Fair Grounds by the highly astute Randy Moss – concur. Given the higher grading, it’s not surprising that this should be the case, but a look at the history of the two races through the lens of our system shows the Risen Star tends to produce far more significant winners (tables ordered by rating achieved in race):
G3 LECOMTE STAKES HISTORY IN TRC ERA
G2 RISEN STAR STAKES HISTORY IN TRC ERA
Mandaloun is up there with some seriously good horses, most notably the imperious Gun Runner, who is one of three Risen Star winners in the table above to have followed up in the Louisiana Derby. The career of the six-time G1 winner could serve as an interesting analogue for that of Mandaloun for he was also a horse who always looked likely to get better with age.
The addition of blinkers could be the catalyst for a similar trajectory. When Mandaloun ran third to the well-ridden all-the-way winner Midnight Bourbon in the Lecomte, he raced wide while the winner rode the rails, but it had to be said he looked like he was not concentrating. With the headgear on in the Risen Star, he was a sharper customer altogether.
We give Mandaloun 4pt edge over his two rivals here and there seems no reason to project a reversal in fortunes, but, as the table at the start of this article shows, he isn’t the top-rated horse according to TRC Computer Race Ratings.
That colt is the seriously talented Hot Rod Charlie. His best TRC of 116 came when second to Essential Quality in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland. He closed from tenth there, leading in the straight until the classy winner swept by. That was his Graded-stakes debut and he went off at 94/1.
In this context, it was disappointing to see Hot Rod Charlie only third at much shorter odds in the G3 Robert B Lewis at Santa Anita. But our computer likes this race because the winner, Medina Spirit, and runner-up Roman Centurion are linked to the 117-rated Life Is Good. But he stumbled at the start and found the 8½ furlongs a little on the short side as the winner dominated under fast conditions. He has an extra furlong to work with here and we rate him as a serious threat to Mandaloun.
Finally, to see the importance of this race, let us access the leading performances by 3-year-olds in the USA on dirt, according to our system. Again, Louisiana Derby runners are in shaded rows:
