TRC Computer Race Ratings has 20/1 shot Lucky Vega as the top-rated horse heading into the Qipco 2000 Guineas at Newmarket a week on Saturday (May 1).
The trials for the first British Classic of 2021 are now in the books and it is a good time to summarise their implications on the figures.
Before we look at the details, it’s important to expose once again the ethos and computational underpinnings of our new TRC Computer Race Ratings. (A full explainer of the maths is available here and a guide to how they power the rankings is here.)
The algorithm works by finding the set of ratings that fits the results of races in the database, taking into account various constraints. To the extent that it is possible, all ratings globally are linked to all other ratings through a giant network of connections established by form.
Using only the results of Group and Graded races (plus selected others that deserve to be classified as such) the numbers produced – which power TRC Global Rankings – then guarantee to maximise the likelihood of past results conservatively. By this last term, we mean that they are geared to prediction, so that the computer does overreact to what has happened in the past, but in reacting to it is guided by past experience of how ratings tend to work out.
TRC Computer Race Ratings update continuously and need nothing like the resources required to produce other numbers. The use of computers is long overdue in the production of racehorse ratings by governing bodies. Humans are removed from tasks we find difficult (repetitive, large-scale computation) and are liberated to perform tasks at which we can beat machines (intuition, algorithm design and incorporation of valuable subjective information).
Using the ante-post odds of the William Hill sportsbook on April 21 as a guide to the likely 2000 Guineas runners, here is an executive summary of the TRC Computer Race Ratings of the leading contenders:
Incidentally, you won’t find Lucky Vega or many others in our current Global Horse Rankings because horses must have run in the last 180 days to receive a ranking. Trainer Jessica Harrington is sending Lucky Vega straight for the Guineas without a prep race, but he will re-enter the rankings based on where he left off, subject to his performance at Newmarket.
Lucky Vega is currently a 20/1 shot for the Guineas not because his form has been misinterpreted. Instead, he has to prove his stamina over a mile, having posted his two best performances at six furlongs. We make his best run (TRC 118) a dominating 3½-length win in the G1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh, in which his victims included The Lir Jet (promoted to third), Laws Of Indices (fourth), St Mark’s Basilica (fifth) and Steel Bull (seventh). Those four were winners of the G2 Norfolk Stakes, G2 Railway Stakes, G1 Dewhurst Stakes and G3 Molecomb Stakes respectively.
After getting no run when fifth behind Thunder Moon, Wembley, St Mark’s Basilica and Master Of The Seas in the National Stakes over seven furlongs at the Curragh, Lucky Vega ran a good race (TRC 115) to finish second to Supremacy in the G1 Middle Park Stakes. The winner got away from him after setting his own pace and Lucky Vega did not own the speed to get by. Though doubts over his stamina are reasonable, he is bred to stay a mile and did best with a good test at six furlongs as a juvenile.
More likely to improve
St Mark’s Basilica was having only his second run when Lucky Vega beat him in the Phoenix Stakes (TRC 103). He hadn’t even won a race at that point, but he graduated next time out and reversed the form with his unfortunate foe when third to Thunder Moon in the National Stakes (TRC 111). He did a lot of running in that contest, having been held up early, and wandered as he struggled to maintain his effort.
Given the pattern exhibited by many an Aidan O’Brien-trained runner, it wasn’t a great surprise to see the son of Siyouni improve again in the Dewhurst – his first race away from the Curragh. Back on a similar soft surface to that on which he had broken his maiden, he cut through the pack decisively and held on well (TRC 117) when stablemate Wembley came at him.
St Mark’s Basilica is a half-brother to 2019 2000 Guineas winner Magna Grecia (by Invincible Spirit) and the pair are out of a G3-winning Galileo mare. In short, he is much more likely to improve for racing over a mile than Lucky Vega.
It’s an important point in using these ratings as a tool for projection to consider that all these colts likely need to get better to reach the required standard of an average 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, as our table of past winners shows:
It’s easy to see that the improving pattern of St Mark’s Basilica’s form, together with his pedigree, make him a strong contender, and the same is true of National Stakes winner Thunder Moon. He’s by Zoffany out of a mare by Sadler’s Wells, no less, and he had a host of his rivals behind him when winning well at the Curragh.
Thunder Moon, trained by Aidan’s son Joseph O’Brien, suffered his first defeat in the Dewhurst when he could not reproduce the same turn of foot on soft going. Moreover, he raced towards the far side of the Rowley Mile on a day where there appeared a powerful bias towards the stands side of the racing strip.
Even further away from the best ground on the same day was Wembley. As a son of Galileo, he is very likely to be better at a mile than shorter and he could close the gap with St Mark’s Basilica and Thunder Moon from his second places behind them in the Dewhurst and National Stakes respectively.
The trials this year have failed to produce a performance to move a horse up beyond the best of the 2-year-old form. Master Of The Seas, fourth in the National Stakes after racing too freely, performed to TRC 114 when winning the G3 Craven Stakes by ¾ length from stablemate La Barrossa earlier this month. He was value for more than the winning margin, having accelerated sharply and he could step up to the required standard here, if he continues to settle as well as he did there in a first-time hood. The son of Dubawi ran to TRC 116 when winning the G2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket’s July course last year.
Incidentally, the dominance of the two Godolphin colts in the Craven led some to advance the claims of their absent stablemate One Ruler, who is considered their superior at home. We cannot rate the latter as the equal of the leading contenders on the basis of his G3 Autumn Stakes win (TRC 112) at Newmarket last October, especially as he was subsequently turned over by Mac Swiney (TRC 113) in the G1 Vertem Futurity at Doncaster. In building the hierarchy of talent, the TRC Computer seeks to keep One Ruler’s best effort below that of Mac Swiney since this is the most reliable guide to their respective merits.
For his part, Mac Swiney had finished only eighth in the National prior to his Doncaster run, so he and One Ruler slot in behind the likes of Thunder Moon, St Mark’s Basilica and Lucky Vega so that the resulting set of TRC Computer Race Ratings explains the results in the most cogent way possible.
The Aidan O’Brien-trained Battleground remains something of a stranger to the Dewhurst/National Stakes group, having missed the big domestic juvenile races. We did not see him after his powerful win in the G2 Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last July until he ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf over a mile at Keeneland, in which he is judged to have run to only TRC 105 after a wide trip. Certainly, winner Fire At Will has done nothing to advertise that form in two starts this year, but Battleground is reported to have thrived physically and could leave that form miles behind.
Another of Battleground’s stablemates, Van Gogh, demands respect. The son of American Pharoah ran in five Group races last year, putting up easily his best TRC Computer Race Rating of 115 on the last of them, when he won the G1 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud in late October on heavy going by four lengths. We have him no better than TRC 107 in the others because he wasn’t far enough in front of other horses who appear ordinary by Group-race standards.
Why did Van Gogh step forward so much in France? Perhaps the greater test of stamina or his ability to handle the mud. If the effort proves legitimate – as his pedigree and connections suggest – then he is a candidate for further top-flight success.