It will come as no surprise that Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Essential Quality heads the TRC Computer Race Ratings for the 2021 running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday. But there could be one to beat him who may have greater upside and stronger stamina for the mile and a quarter.
The computer has four horses rated at 118 or above and they are the first four in the market in the Coral sportsbook prices also shown in the caption.
Our unique performance ratings power the TRC Global Ranking system by determining the influence each performance has on the classification of Horse, Jockeys, Owners, Trainers and Sires, which are updated each week on the site. We recently published our numbers for the other important Classic taking part on Saturday, May 1, the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket. This article has full details of how TRC Computer Race Ratings are calculated.
In a nutshell, the ratings establish a hierarchy of talent that best fits the results in our database covering all Group and Graded races run worldwide, plus a select number of others that we feel deserve the same status.
You can access the TRC Computer Race Ratings for all horses ranked in the world’s top 2000 (we recetly expanded this from 500 as requested by readers who want access to more ratings) by clicking on their name in our Horse ranking. Here is what you will find if you do this for Essential Quality:
Essential Quality, who will break from stall 14, remains unbeaten after four starts. In the latest of these, the G2 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, he was hard pressed to hold off Highly Motivated, who showed much improved form under a sound tactical ride and could run a big race here. The computer has a high opinion of the quality of that race, rating the winner TRC 120 and the runner-up TRC 118.
This performance elevated Essential Quality to world #14, which is a lofty perch for a 3-year-old at this time of year. But is it good enough to win the Derby if this turns out to be a typical year?
These are the TRC Computer Race Ratings which all Kentucky Derby winners performed to in the race since the TRC era began:
The past winners are arranged in descending order of performance rating. To show the median standard required, a box is drawn around the fifth- and sixth-best ratings of the last decade. So, it is reasonable to infer that a horse need to run to TRC 122 to meet the requirements of the race in a typical year.
This means Essential Quality needs to improve again. Yes, that’s right, as with the 2000 Guineas, the horse with the best form on the board still needs to get better to counter the threat of late developers and improvers. And it isn’t difficult to name the most obvious of those in the case of the Kentucky Derby.
G1 Santa Anita Derby winner ROCK YOUR WORLD is a huge threat to all here. He is by Candy Ride out of an Empire Maker mare – both influences for stamina. A graduate from turf racing, he has run in only one Graded stakes and scored with something in hand, showing a long stride and coming off as likely to improve again over a mile and a quarter.
At huge odds, an intriguing possibility is King Fury. He is a son of Curlin who may be blossoming at the right time. In the mud at Keeneland last time, he made a massive move from off the pace to take command of the G3 Lexington Stakes.
Of course, he has a fair bit to find, but this was perhaps the most eye-catching piece of running of any Derby candidate and he owns a victory over the G1 Arkansas Derby winner Super Stock over this strip.
There are plenty of other longshot alternatives, including a stablemate of the favourite in Mandaloun, who is a quirky horse who was not on a going day last time when only sixth to Hot Rod Charlie in the G2 Louisiana Derby. He might just fancy it more here.