The Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs won by Medina Spirit is currently assessed as the world’s highest-rated race for 3-year-olds by TRC Computer Race Ratings.
The algorithm fits all Group and Graded races in the world so that the ratings assigned to each performance explain the results with the smallest error possible. The resulting figures are unbiased and do not depend on the name of the race unless the horses involved are only sparsely connected to the rest of the dataset.
In other words, we make no presumption that the Kentucky Derby or any other race will conform to a certain standard when the form of the runners says something else.
TRC Computer Race Ratings are on the same scale as the World’s Best Racehorse Ratings. We do not make assumptions about the effect of weight carried and weight-for-age allowances, so it is necessary only to subtract 3lb from TRC figures in the case of fillies and mares (to permit a direct comparison with the sport’s official ratings).
Here are the leading TRC Computer Race Ratings for races confined to 3-year-olds so far in 2021:
In the Top 20 are no fewer than 13 races run in the U.S., but this is typical for the time of year because the programme for 3-year-olds there is more advanced chronologically than in Europe. The Classic generation in Europe will catch up, so the relative strength of the crops in the U.S., Europe, Japan and Australia will take a while to unwind.
Of the remaining seven races for 3-year-olds in our Top 20, three have taken place in Australia, three in Japan and just one in Britain. Note that the bottom four rows of the table have been glued to the Top 20 to show the races ranked #47 to #50, which include the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket (#47), won by Mother Earth, which seems of unremarkable quality as things stand judged by historical precedent during the TRC Global Rankings era.
Although Medina Spirit showed sharply improved form to win the Kentucky Derby, chances are that it wasn’t a complete fluke.
Yes, he benefitted from track position and tactics to gut out a half-length win, but the three other horses who filled out the frame have solid form at a good level. Runner-up Mandaloun (TRC 119) also appears in the table at #10 as the winner of the G2 Risen Star Stakes (TRC 117), while third-placed Hot Rod Charlie (TRC 118) posted TRC 114 when he won the G2 Louisiana Derby and fourth-placed Essential Quality (TRC 117) appears at both #2 for his G2 Southwest Stakes win (TRC 119) and #5 for his victory in the G2 Blue Grass Stakes (TRC 119).
Essential Quality was arguably the best horse in the Derby, considering the ground he lost while racing wide. The result could be a sign that his top-flight 2-year-old campaign is beginning to take effect, but his juvenile form has really stood up since and he is worth another chance to reassert himself.
Malathaat, the Kentucky Oaks winner, could prove a match for the boys in due course. It’s true that we don’t rate her Churchill Downs victory as high as the colts’ Classic, but that is a function of a less expansive race as much as anything.
Moreover, the daughter of Curlin will prove well suited by the chance to race at longer distances than nine furlongs, judged by her capacious stride and stamina reserves. The excellent Geir Stabell has been proved spot on about her level of talent, even if connections decided to duck the colts in the first leg of the Triple Crown.
If the two U.S. Classics turned out as being close to the standard expected of the races historically, it is reasonable to express serious doubts over whether that can be said of their Newmarket counterparts last weekend. We have already touched on the 1000 Guineas, but the 2000 result was not much more definitive.
The winner, Poetic Flare (TRC 118) could yet turn out to be a superstar, but he surely got a better ride from veteran Kevin Manning than William Buick afforded the short-head runner-up Master Of The Seas (TRC 117), who was reigned back early then made a premature effort.
It is hardly much of a projection to believe he could have won had Buick come with a more even run, and we haven’t even mentioned the effect of the draw, which may have favoured both the first two and third-placed Lucky Vega (TRC 115), who exited stalls 4-2-3 on a weekend where racing on the far-side strip of the Rowley Mile looked an advantage.
So, Poetic Flare comes out as the lowest-rated winner of the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket in the TRC era. This does not mean he has the least talent of those horses listed in the table, but it does increase the probability the horses behind him will surpass him as the season goes on, for there is far more room at the top.
In racing history, there is a very strong correlation for all races between the distances between horses at the finish and the rank correlation between the finishing order in that race and the end-of-season ranking of the competitors. In other words, the closer they finish together, the more the order is open to flux.
TRC Computer Race Ratings reflects this reality in the way the maths works. It is possible that a three-way photo can turn out to feature three elite horses, in which case our numbers will reflect it, but to rate the 2000 Guineas as such requires a deal more evidence than has been exhibited by the Classic crop in Britain and Ireland so far.