The buzz seems to be missing from the Triple Crown series so far this year, which is understandable. Let’s face it, the Kentucky Derby was not a high-class renewal, and the Preakness field isn’t all that inspiring either.
Recent developments suggest that the Belmont Stakes may actually turn out to be by far the best of three U.S. Classics of 2021.
The 12-furlong contest in June is more often than not the least competitive race of the three. If current lists of possible runners are anything to go by, that will not be the case this time. Should Derby winner Medina Spirit take the Preakness on Saturday, and assuming he ships to New York next month, he is likely to face a significantly stronger group of rivals than on his previous outings.
Kentucky Oaks heroine Malathaat, Derby third Hot Rod Charlie, last year's juvenile champion Essential Quality, Santa Anita Derby winner Rock Your World, Florida Derby hero Known Agenda, and the clear cut UAE Derby winner Rebel’s Romance are all possible runners, as is recent G3 Peter Pan scorer Promise Keeper.
Like Malathaat and Known Agenda, the latter is trained by Todd Pletcher, who has even mentioned a fourth possible representative from his big team, the Wood Memorial winner Bourbonic.
Known Agenda was never a factor from his inside post at Churchill Downs. He performed much better when taking the Florida Derby, going away at the finish, and must be considered better than both Bourbonic and Promise Keeper.
Promise Keeper may be the one hitting an upward curve at the right time, though. He had more up his sleeve passing the winning post, and he came back full of energy, when beating Nova Rags easily by 2¼ lengths in the Peter Pan, his second win over 9 furlongs. Pletcher, who has also won the Belmont with Palace Malice (2013) and Tapwrit (2017), will be playing a strong hand.
Essential Quality and Rebel’s Romance give Godolphin two live contenders. Both colts appear to possess stamina and both would fit well into the Belmont.
International raiders always add spice to these races, and Dubai’s Rebel’s Romance is sure to get a lot of attention. Shipping him in for the Belmont makes a lot of sense. He was a dominant winner of the UAE Derby over 1900 metres (9½ furlongs), a demanding distance at Meydan. Coming from well off the pace, he powered home by 5½ lengths from the previously undefeated Panadol.
Long-term plan
A crack at the Kentucky Derby was ruled out shortly afterwards, when trainer Charlie Appleby tweeted, “Having spoken to His Highness Sheikh Mohammed, we feel Rebel’s Romance needs more time and he will now be aimed at the last leg of the U.S. Triple Crown, the G1 Belmont Stakes.”
In other words, when Rebel’s Romance enters the gate at Belmont on June 5, it will be as a result of a long-term, well-laid plan. How he would stack up against the U.S.-based horses is hard to say, but he outclassed 13 rivals in Dubai, he will be coming into the big race as a fresh horse and he must be respected.
Another Belmont possible is Japan’s France Go De Ina, who finished sixth to Rebel’s Romance at Meydan having produced smart form at home. He goes for the Preakness, with Joel Rosario booked for the ride at Pimlico.
That booking could be a one-off. According to trainer John Sadler, Rock Your World might go for the Belmont. Rosario partnered that colt both in the Santa Anita Derby and the Kentucky Derby, where the Candy Ride son’s chances were wiped out at the start.
It’s hard to imagine Rosario deserting Rock Your World if he comes to New York. His comfortable 4½-length win over Medina Spirit at Santa Anita marks Rock Your World down as one of the two best 3-year-old colts in North America in my book - alongside the sidelined Life Is Good, who trounced Medina Spirit by 8 lengths in the G2 San Felipe. Rock Your World has shown excellent tactical speed, but there is stamina in his pedigree.
Stamina isn’t always a crucial factor in the Belmont, though a field with strength in depth should contribute to a decent pace. One contender that would not mind a true test of stamina is the filly Malathaat. She outstayed Search Results in the Kentucky Oaks, once more giving the impression that she felt the job was done as she got the upper hand. She is the type of horse that will never win by far.
‘She would be very, very competitive’
How good is she? Her rider, John Velazquez, made some interesting comments at the post-race press conference. Asked how he thought the filly would compare to the colts, he replied, “She has the talent that any colt running this year has got and, to tell you the truth, this year would be, without taking anything away from any colts or anything like that, a good horse like her, with the year of 3-year-olds that we have right now, she would be very, very competitive.”
Notable words, coming from the man who guided Medina Spirit to victory in the Run for the Roses the following day.
Fillies get a healthy 5lb allowance in the Belmont. Wonder girl Rags To Riches, representing the Pletcher/Velazquez combination, pulled off the Kentucky Oaks/Belmont double in 2007, when she beat Malathaat’s sire, Curlin, by a head after a tremendous tussle.
Rags To Riches became only the third filly to capture the Belmont, alongside Ruthless in 1867 and Tanya in 1905. No more than 23 fillies have taken part in the race during its long history. Win, lose or draw, if Malathaat competes in the 153rd running of the Belmont, she will be part of a fascinating piece of sport, and quite likely the toughest of the three legs in the 2021 Triple Crown series.