There may have been a mighty deluge before, during and after racing at Royal Ascot yesterday – the going has shot across the spectrum from the official ‘good to firm’ at the start of the meeting to be now considered ‘heavy’ – but the great festival has not disappointed.
It has been festooned with top-notch performances, notably Subjectivist in the G1 Gold Cup, the 3-year-old Poetic Flare in the G1 St James’s Palace Stakes and TRC World #1 Palace Pier in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes.
As we enter the meeting’s final day, the state of the ground has sullied the purity of the remaining races as a test of pure merit: Now, the ability to handle a soft surface has entered the equation.
Here we use the powerful computer performance ratings that power TRC Global Rankings to examine the two biggest the Group races for 3-year-olds and up on the final day.
For each race subject to this preview, the horse’s best three ratings are listed, together with its current Official Rating (OR) provided by the British Horseracing Authority. Their figures and ours are on the same scale, with the exceptions of female horses in open-sex events to which 3lb has been added (TRC Computer Race Ratings make no assumption about the effect of weight).
3.05 Hardwicke Stakes (G2) 1m4f
#34 Broome (OR 115) 118-116-116
#46** Wonderful Tonight (OR 120) 119-119-113
#98 Japan (OR 117) 120-118-118
#127 Mogul (OR 117) 116-116-114
#172 Sir Ron Priestley (OR 116) 115-113-108
#249 Tiger Moth (OR 115) 119-118-116
#681 Bangkok (OR 111) 108-108-107
#761 Thunderous (OR 109) 110-109-104
#792 Logician (OR 116) 115-113-107
#880 Hukum (OR 114) 110-105-97
#1091 Pablo Escobarr (OR 108) 107-107-101
#1917 Highest Ground (OR 109) 107-91-85
#UR+ Albaflora (OR 116) NB-103-97
#UR+ Ilaraab (OR 111) NB
Analysis: Current TRC Global Rankings favour the Aidan O’Brien-trained Broome over his stable companions Japan and Mogul. (The ranking for each horse this week is shown after the hashtag except for Wonderful Tonight, who has been off the track for more than 180 days, after which a horse drops out of the classifications. In this case, the last ranking she possessed last is indicated with **.)
Broome has less naturally ability than his two stablemates, who are brothers, but he mines the ore of his talent better. He has run in no fewer than ten Group races, recording his best TRC Computer Race Rating of 118 when beating Helvic Dream by 2 lengths in the G2 Mooresbridge Stakes at the Curragh last month. On his latest start, he was beaten narrowly at odds-on (TRC 114) by the same horse in the G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup at the same venue.
While Broome runs like a horse who should be suited by further than a mile and a half, he has yet to prove it. His best effort at the trip came when fourth to stablemate Anthony Van Dyck in the 2019 Epsom Derby (Japan narrowly in front of him), but his form figures at a mile and a half-plus read ‘4640’ and, just for this reason, he is passed over for these purposes.
This is a difficult race for ranking purposes because Hukum, Ilaraab and, especially, Albaflora all have form in non-Group races that we reckon make them dangerous in this company.
WONDERFUL TONIGHT can win her third straight race on soft ground and looks a very big price at double digits here. Ranked #46 after winning the G1 British Champions’ Filly & Mare Turf at Ascot last October, she has bigger targets than this ahead, but her trainer, David Menuisier, is extremely talented and the Frenchman would not send a horse to Royal Ascot half-cooked.
If we had included Albaflora’s listed win here in May when the ground was soft, the daughter of Muhaarar would figure in calculations. She was very impressive scoring by seven lengths, and it is easy to forgive her subsequent defeat in Pyledriver’s G1 Coronation Cup at Epsom, where she went well for a long way but could not go again with classier horses.
Ilaraab is trained by William Haggas, who places his horses as well as any trainer. The son of Wootton Bassett bolted up in a handicap at York, proving much superior to a BHA handicap mark of 102. BHA ratings are on the same scale as TRC Computer Race Ratings so what we learned there was that Ilaraab’s true rating is likely to lay a long way north of 102. But how high?
Talking of handicaps, Hukum won the King George V at this meeting last year from a mark of 90. That race worked out very well (the Gold Cup winner Subjectivist was second) and he won his first Group race afterwards in the G3 Geoffrey Freer at Newbury. Once again, we would have him rated and ranked higher if we had included a listed race at Goodwood last time.
Logician looked a world beater as a 3-year-old but must have had problems since, while other horses like Sir Ron Priestley and Highest Ground have winning form this season.
This would be a difficult race to reckon even without the vagaries of Japan and Mogul. Either could decide they fancy the occasion, but they have proved hard to predict – to say the least.
4.20 Diamond Jubilee Stakes (G1) 6f
#95 Dream Of Dreams (OR 120) 118-118-117
#173 Glen Shiel (OR 117) 118-114-110
#245 Starman (OR 116) 113-98
#266 Sonaiyla (OR 111) 112-112-112
#335 Happy Power (OR 113) 116-114-110
#475 Namos (OR 109) 109-109-109
#545 Summerghand (OR 110) 110-105-99
#581 Ventura Rebel (OR 108) 113-111-107
#653 Art Power (OR 114) 114-113-106
#713 Final Song (OR 110) 110-110-109
#1062 Nahaarr (OR 115) 111
#1453 Emaraaty Ana (OR 107) 109-106-105
#1970 Royal Commando (OR 109) 106-102-98
Analysis: In general, TRC Global Rankings has lower view of European sprinting than does the World’s Best Racehorse Rankings – the sport’s official ratings – and the British Horseracing Authority’s performance ratings, which are a constituent of the latter and are shown here as OR (Official Rating).
Nevertheless, we might be a bit too low in the G2 Duke of York Stakes won by Starman from Nahaarrr on account of the two being thoroughly progressive. We can’t be sure that these two really fit the remainder here yet, as we have only two Group-race performances from the former and only one from the latter.
But, had this race been run next week, it would have got an upgrade on our figures in any case, thanks to third-placed Oxted winning the G1 King’s Stand Stakes at this meeting on Tuesday. So, best to think of the ratings and rankings of Starman and Nahaarr as having a big ‘+’
Still, the percentage call here is DREAM OF DREAMS to break his agonising Ascot duck. He has run six times at the royal racecourse without success, but been beaten a head or a neck three times, including in the last two renewals of this race (by Blue Point in 2019 and Hello Youmzain in 2020). Significantly, the TRC algorithm has those two efforts equal on TRC 118, and better than anything else he has done.
Easy ground should hold no fears for Dream Of Dreams though it was probably too soft when he finished behind Glen Shiel in the G1 British Champions’ Sprint, also at Ascot, last October.
Conditions have come right for Art Power, who lost his way somewhat after an impressive handicap win at this meeting last year off OR 97. He won a G3 at Naas on his next start, but his form figures in Group races afterwards were 644. And he returned with another sixth, behind Starman.
The truth is that there isn’t much strength-in-depth here for a G1, and, with conditions likely to sort out the field even more, there is a chance of a surprise winner.
Could that horse be Happy Power (value pick)? He won three times on the bounce last year, including in the G3 Supreme Stakes and G2 Challenge Stakes, the latter on soft ground. And, when ninth to Glen Shiel at Ascot, he broke from stall 1 on the far side, which seemed the slower ground. Connections have twice run him at a mile this year and he is unexposed as a sprinter, so 25/1 seems a shade too big.