The Triple Crown has been run, the key second phase of big 3-year-old races gets under way at the weekend, and it looks as though it’s going to take something dramatic and unforeseen to stop the Eclipse Award in that category heading off to Brad Cox’s barn.
We’ll know a lot more after Saturday’s $1 million G1 Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park, of course, but at this point the U.S. Champion 3-year-old Male title of 2021 looks to rest between two Cox charges - the Belmont winner Essential Quality and Haskell-bound Mandaloun, the horse who will probably be awarded the Kentucky Derby in the likely event of Medina Spirit’s disqualification.
Essential Quality, world #6 in the TRC Global Rankings, is ranked fifth in America’s NTRA poll with 189 points, 123 ahead of the next 3-year-old, Hot Rod Charlie.
The Godolphin homebred’s 1½-length victory in the Belmont last month was impressive, especially given that he ran 44 feet more than the runner up. The son of Tapit also garnered one of the top Beyer figures for the Belmont in recent editions, a lofty 109.
This leads all horses in route races in 2021, and is also the highest figure in the race since Empire Maker’s 110 in 2003. Essential Quality has a single loss to his name - in the Derby itself, where he finished fourth, a length behind Medina Spirit, after running 68 feet more than the winner. He also won the G2 Blue Grass Stakes by a neck from Helium by showing versatility, being closer to the pace than in other wins, and the G3 Southwest Stakes over a sloppy, sealed track, which he took by over four lengths.
Cox has indicated his next start will be at Saratoga, either in the G2 Jim Dandy on July 31 or in the G1 Travers four weeks later.
Essential Quality is the clear leader of the division, so stablemate Mandaloun (named for a style of Lebanese window) still has some ground to make up. In the TRC standings, for instance, he is down at #171.
The Juddmonte sophomore has been more up than down, but still inconsistent, finishing a disappointing third in his stakes debut, the G3 Lecomte Stakes, a length behind Midnight Bourbon, before winning the G2 Risen Star by 1¼ lengths, and then finishing sixth in the G2 Louisiana Derby, over 13 lengths behind Hot Rod Charlie with Cox offering no explanation.
The son of Into Mischief redeemed himself in the Derby six weeks later, finishing a half-length behind Medina Spirit and a head in front of Hot Rod Charlie. And then last month he did no more than necessary in winning the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth Park as a tune-up for the Haskell.
The Preakness has it
One might think that more 3yo champions had won the Kentucky Derby than any other major race in the last 25 years - 13 of the 25 went on to win the award. However, more Preakness scorers have gone on to take it - 16. The Belmont winner has only been champion five times during this period.
This is not only a contest between two colts in training with world #6 trainer Brad Cox, it’s also one between two of the world’s great owning and breeding empires.
Juddmonte and Godolphin each have had one previous 3yo champion male. Juddomonte did it with Arrogate in 2016 after he won the Travers in record time and defeated eventual Horse of the Year California Chrome in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Darley did it with 2006 standout Bernardini, who swept the Preakness, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup before finishing second to Shadwell’s Invasor in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Neither stable has won Horse of the Year in North America, though Juddmonte won Outstanding Owner on four occasions and Outstanding Breeder on five. Similarly, Godolphin has won Outstanding Owner three times, including last year, while Darley captured Outstanding Breeder honors in 2012.
This year could prove auspicious for Godolphin given that not only do they have a strong 3-year old, but in the older male division they have a powerful hand with 2019 2yo champion Maxfield and Dubai World Cup winner Mystic Guide.
In the recent past, only a couple of trainers have had such an abundance of equine riches:
D Wayne Lukas (Thunder Gulch and Timber Country)
In 1995, Lukas sent out Kentucky Derby, Belmont and Travers winner Thunder Gulch and champion 2yo Colt Timber County, who took the Preakness. After being made the favorite for the Belmont, Timber Country withdrew with a fever, and was later retired after a training injury, so the competition for the 3yo male title never advanced beyond the Triple Crown races. Thunder Gulch went on to capture the championship for another great owner-breeder empire - Coolmore.
Bob Baffert (Dortmund and American Pharoah)
In 2015, Baffert entered the Triple Crown season with two strong contenders. Kaleem Shah’s Dortmund was undefeated entering the Kentucky Derby, having won four Graded stakes and two G1s, including the Santa Anita Derby, where the son of Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown ran the second highest Beyer of the class entering the Kentucky Derby, a 106. American Pharoah was the defending 2yo champion, having won 3 G1s, and four Graded stakes, all with triple-digit Beyers. He was sidelined before the Breeders’ Cup, and came back with wins in the G2 Rebel Stakes and G1 Arkansas Derby. Dortmund managed to show in the Kentucky Derby, but the torrential rain in the Preakness was his undoing, with him finishing fourth and not returning to racing until late in the year. American Pharoah would go on to win the Triple Crown and all the accolades that go with it.
Who knows how the rest of 2021 will play out? It is difficult for any horse to hold its form from one race to another, let alone from spring to fall, but as Cox works out a campaign for each of his star colts, he is dealing with a problem any trainer would love.
Todd Sidor, an attorney by trade, has helped produce equine law seminars, and has been a member of racing partnerships for a number of years. His more than two decades' passion and respect for the sport of horseracing will always make him, first and foremost, a racing enthusiast with a penchant for racing history.