The Qatar Goodwood Festival marks roughly the halfway point of the British flat season. The five days on the undulating Sussex track include plenty of Group action, featuring three G1s we will look at here from a TRC Global Rankings perspective.
G1 GOODWOOD CUP
2m, 3yo+, Tuesday
Elevated to G1 status in 2017, the Goodwood Cup was firmly established long before that as a fantastic spectacle. This year, a rematch between Ascot Gold Cup hero Subjectivist and the deposed 3-time winner Stradivarius was keenly anticipated, until it was announced that the former had sustained an injury which puts the remainder of his career in serious jeopardy.
Only 13 horses stand their ground for the 2021 renewal at time of writing, and not all these have form we can rank. They are listed in order of current TRC Global Ranking, with their best three race ratings:
RANKINGS
#30 Stradivarius 127-127-124
#79 Sir Ron Priestley 115-115-113
#126 Spanish Mission 117-117-112
#187 Santiago 120-118-113
#239 Trueshan 119-113
#274 Amhran Na Bhfiann 113-101-83
#653 Nayef Road 116-114-111
#823 Serpentine 115-103-101
#966 Passion 114-110-109
#1654 Mekong 111-110-107
#1748 Emperor Of The Sun 109-97
ANALYSIS
STRADIVARIUS could finish only fourth at the Royal meeting after being set too much to do by Frankie Dettori, but this is a fine chance for the champion to bounce back. Some thought that effort as being evidence that his great run was coming to an end, and, while that view may have some merit, it is too soon to reach that conclusion.
The uncertainty over the present wellbeing of Stradivarius is built into his ranking, so he rates as the top pick notwithstanding his moderate Ascot showing. An amazing fifth Goodwood Cup could be in the offing.
The biggest threat to the defending champion could come from Subjectivist’s half-brother, Sir Ron Priestley, who is also trained by Mark Johnston. Although he has run no race worth in excess of 115 according to our figures, he is coming off a neck defeat of world #50 Al Aasy, which was no fluke, and thus he must be ranked as close behind that horse as is logical (which is #79).
Spanish Mission represents the superb Team Valor operation and should pick up a nice cheque again. He has two ratings of 117, which are bang on the par for this, so, if his rivals slip, he could take advantage.
G1 SUSSEX STAKES
1m, 3yo+, Wednesday
This highly important contest is traditionally one of the first chances to see the best 3-year-old milers compete against their elders. It has been won by some top-class horses, most notably Frankel (2011, 2012) and Kingman (2014) in recent years. This is how TRC Computer Race Ratings rated the winners in the last decade:
A box has been placed around the two winners that represent the median race standard of 122.5. This is towards the top end of all global mile races on turf.
Only 12 horses stand their ground for the 2021 renewal at time of writing, but these include some interesting names, listed here in order of current TRC Global Ranking with their best three race ratings (3-year-olds are indicated for reference):
RANKINGS
#16 Poetic Flare (3yo) 122-122-117
#68 Alcohol Free (3yo) 117-116-113
#122 Order Of Australia 116-114-109
#132 Snow Lantern (3yo) 116-113
#136 Tilsit 117-114-112
#289 Chindit (3yo) 115-109-108
#323 Lope Y Fernandez 120-120-115
#342 Duhail 112-108-108
#343 Century Dream 114-114-112
#841 Battleground (3yo) 111-108-105
#1128 Space Traveller 111-109-105
#1258 Wembley (3yo) 114-110-96
ANALYSIS
The 3-year-old POETIC FLARE stands out in a field that looks to be of less than average strength in depth. The Jim Bolger-trained colt is one of the toughest horses in training and has thrived on a campaign that would likely have set lesser horses back.
After winning a listed race in April in workmanlike style, the son of the stable’s 2013 Sussex Stakes runner-up Dawn Approach emulated his sire by winning the G1 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. He was beaten subsequently in the French and Irish versions, both run on heavy going, which did not suit him. That said, he was not far from his best at the time when a close second to stablemate Mac Swiney at The Curragh.
A 24-day break after his exertions in Ireland proved to be the pause that refreshes for Poetic Flare, and, when given the chance to run on fast ground at Royal Ascot, he returned to his best to beat Lucky Vega by 4¼ lengths in the G1 St James’s Palace Stakes. This course and distance – with the likelihood of another sound surface – should hold no fears for him, and the current world #16 can move up the rankings with another win.
Order Of Australia was a big mover (#469 to #122) earlier this month after winning the G2 Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh. That win strengthens the belief that he can reproduce the form of his shock Breeders’ Cup Mile win last year.
Alcohol Free made the running when third to Snow Lantern in the G1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket. We rate her win in the G1 Coronation Stakes 4pts – or about two lengths better – and she should achieve higher when given a lead again.
G1 NASSAU STAKES
1m 1f 97y, 3yo+ F, Thursday
Good-quality fillies and mares are given plenty of options by the European Pattern, and this race can vary in quality, as the table of winners during the last decade suggests:
The median winning performance of 116.5 is no more than average for a G1 restricted to fillies. The 2016 scorer Minding was a brilliant winner, but several others have performed to a much lesser level, even if they had better form on other days.
There are ten fillies and mares remaining among the entries. Here are the current TRC Global Rankings in order, with each horse’s best three race ratings (3-year-olds are indicated for reference) included:
RANKINGS
#124 Audarya 118-118-112
#132 Snow Lantern (3yo) 116-113
#153 Joan Of Arc (3yo) 114-114-110
#164 Lady Bowthorpe 119-114-113
#392 Cayenne Pepper 115-114-112
#395 Shale 114-110-108
#424 Empress Josephine (3yo) 111-103-97
#685 Zeyaadah (3yo) 107-105-103
#1410 Technique (3yo) 106-105
ANALYSIS
This is the most tightly ranked of the three Goodwood G1 events, with four horses separated by only 40 slots globally. We calculate that AUDARYA is the most likely winner, coming off an excellent second to Love in the G1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot. That race was at a slow pace and did not allow the runners to separate out as much as they might have done, so we cannot rate her effort on a par with last season’s victories in the G1 Prix Jean Romanet and G1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Nonetheless, she is likely to return to her best here and should take the beating.
Snow Lantern ranks as the best of the 3-year-olds after her victory in the G1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket. That was over a mile, so there remains some doubt as to her capacity to see out an extended 9 furlongs, but she is a daughter of Frankel and is regarded as a likely stayer by her connections.
Joan Of Arc could be another Aidan O’Brien-trained filly who continues to improve. She is coming off a win in the G1 Prix de Diane at Chantilly, which we were not able to rate as highly as some other renewals, but who knows the limit of her ability at this stage.
There would be no more popular winner than the William Jarvis-trained Lady Bowthorpe, who has not had the rub of the green on her last two starts. She was only fourth to Snow Lantern in the Falmouth, but was blocked and checked. The way she finished that race, and her pedigree, suggests she is now suited to returning to longer distances; she won over 9 furlongs at Newmarket in the G2 Dahlia Stakes in May.