The G1 Irish Champion Stakes is perennially one of the best races in the world. In 2021, it is nothing less than a showdown.
As the graphic shows, some great horses have come to Leopardstown and prevailed in the ten-furlong test, which has a median winning TRC Computer Race Rating of 122.5:
This is how this year’s small-but-select field compares with that expectation:
Three of the four runners have achieved ratings in excess of that required to win in an average year. But this is no average year. Subject to confirmation of the TRC algorithm, which determines the rankings each week with no human intervention, the world #1 title is on the line!
Currently, ST MARK’S BASILICA sits just 103pts behind Palace Pier at the top of our global classifications. If he wins this race, we learn more evidence that he is likely superior to Tarnawa, who was #2 herself shortly after her Breeders’ Cup Turf win last year. The latter only sits at #7 now because it is some time since her victory at Keeneland, which we rate 3pts (roughly a length) better than anything else she has done; and that the peak of world racing is 2021 is higher than it was at the end of 2020 – only natural because of the ravages of the Covid-19 pandemic on racing schedules.
St Mark’s Basilica has been nothing short of brilliant on his last four starts. Having capped his juvenile season with victory in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes at Newmarket, he completed the French Classic double in the G1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) and G1 Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby), both times under world #58 Ioritz Mendizibal.
St Mark’s Basilica, who flicked his tail and looked slightly quirky in the Jockey Club, ran more smoothly when winning the G1 Eclipse and posted a world-class effort to beat the globetrotting stars Addeyyb and Mishriff at Sandown. Excuses have been made for both, and it is certainly fair to say that the latter looked a different horse when winning the G1 International Stakes at York, but, from a rankings perspective, our computer did not see reason in the latter win to believe that Mishriff was now St Mark’s Basilica’s superior.
We expect St Mark’s Basilica to prevail. It cannot be taken for granted that he is the superior of either Tarnawa or Poetic Flare, and one reason to worry about him is that he has missed some time since his last win, but O’Brien is not known for leaving his best horses short in G1s. The strong point of his game is his finishing kick, which could well be the best in the world.
Tarnawa also owns a very strong kick. She used it to great effect on firm going in the U.S., but she had previously accelerated like a champion on a much softer surface when winning a pair of G1s at ParisLongchamp for fillies and mares. She has now won seven of her last eight Group races and victory here would likely elevate her to world #1.
Her comeback in the G3 Ballyroan Stakes at Leopardstown was highly impressive. She is a more than worthy foe for St Mark’s Basilica.
In many ways, Poetic Flare is the wild card. We don’t rate his form as highly as the two above him in the rankings, but he is unexposed at a mile and a quarter. We make his close second to world #1 Palace Pier in the G1 Jacques le Marois an improved effort because of the quality of the competition, and he provides a vital link to some of the best horses around. This suggests he will not be easy to beat for any horse.
With the Joseph O’Brien-trained Patrick Sarsfield making up the quartet, the scene is set. Let’s hope the race isn’t too tactical and all four horses have the platform they need to succeed. Let’s the best horse win. We could be looking at a TRC world champion.