Four horses in the world’s Top 11; seven in the Top 30; nine in the Top 50. The 2021 G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is a nonpareil in Paris. Never has there been so little between so many on so important a stage.
This is the way the TRC Global Rankings computer sees it: Four horses – Hurricane Lane, Tarnawa, Adayar and Chrono Genesis – have already earned a place in the world’s elite. Four more – Snowfall, Love, Broome and Deep Bond – are on the edge of it. Then there are fringe contenders who could easily step up, particularly the unexposed pair Alenquer and Raabihah and the strong-staying German runner Torquator Tasso.
It is the G1 Grand Prix de Paris winner HURRICANE LANE on top, but this is a race that will be decided by who peaks on the day and who has a good trip. There are many potential winners.
In this article, we will focus less on who makes the most appeal as a betting prospect and more on why the computer has ranked the horses in the order it has. First, here is a complete summary of our data and TRC Computer Race Ratings (TRC) of each horse, arranged by ascending rank this week:
Though the computer sees very little to separate #5 Hurricane Lane from #6 Tarnawa and #7 Adayar, it seems reasonable to question the order. After all, Tarnawa just ran a close second to the world #1 St Mark’s Basilica in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes (TRC 126). If the winner hadn’t just been retired to stud after finishing sore, Tarnawa would have been fancied by many to get her revenge at some point down the road. The Dermot Weld-trained filly finished well at Leopardstown and was apparently hampered by the winner edging into her path.
Surely, she will move forward returning to a mile and a half?
For his part, Adayar even has a verdict over Hurricane Lane, which came when the Charlie Appleby-trained pair ran first and third in the Derby at Epsom. And it certainly doesn’t hurt Adayar’s claims to be ranked higher than his stablemate that he went on to win the G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot from world #3 Mishriff. That run was worth TRC 130; that is the highest figure of any horse in the race.
So, if you fancy Tarnawa, or you think Adayar is a worthy favourite, the TRC computer is with you. But, what it likes in particular about Hurricane Lane is how quickly he has compiled a body of work that makes it very unlikely he is anything other than a top-class horse.
The Derby run referred to above is Hurricane Lane’s only defeat – and he ripped off both front shoes; in his other races, he has won four times while posting top performance after top performance, the best of which was a stunning 6-length defeat of Wordsworth (TRC 126) in the G1 Grand Prix de Paris. There, he had the G2 Prix Niel 1-2 Bubble Gift and Baby Rider in sixth and fifth respectively, both beaten around 9 lengths.
So what? You might ask. After all, it seems as if this year’s Niel was one of the weakest for a while. The winner is now ranked #172 and the second #405. True, six lengths is an impressive margin, but what else has Hurricane Lane to offer?
Well, in his latest start in the G1 St Leger at Doncaster, he beat the Derby runner-up Mojo Star by 2¾L (TRC 123). Again, however, Adayar beat the Richard Hannon-trained colt by more than that, 4½L, at Epsom (TRC 127).
But the computer is not arguing that Hurricane Lane’s best performances are better than Adayar’s. TRC Performance Ratings (shown in the column second to right in the table) underline that.
The depth of his CV
What the computer likes is the depth of Hurricane Lane’s CV in that his worst performances are much better than Adayar’s. And there is just that little more to go from his four wins than there is from Adayar’s two. When the machine searches its database, it finds it is just a shade more likely that a horse with Hurricane Lane’s array of figures will beat a horse with Adayar’s.
This is what makes TRC Global Rankings different from other systems of classifying horses; when it comes to assessing a horse’s career ratings, depth counts as well as height.
Perhaps it should not in this spot. This is your call. The TRC computer does not care that Hurricane Lane is coming out of a historically bad Arc prep in the G1 St Leger at Doncaster; neither does it know that Hurricane Lane has been a shade laboured in his races and may not have the turn of foot to cope with the requirements of the Arc. This big, long-striding horse won’t get things as easy up front here as he did when winning the Grand Prix de Paris.
As for Adayar, given that he has the highest performance rating but isn’t ranked the highest, it must be the case that uncertainty exists over his true rating. If he wins this, we are no doubt looking at the new world #1 because a third win – and a great win – would add so much to his profile that he could go clear at the top by a long way, in all probability. But, the fact that he has two great wins and two less than stellar performances also suggests that he is a little more likely to misfire than some.
We can find an example of that in the record of Snowfall. The computer has her on TRC 120 after her Oaks treble, but those efforts were all a massive step forward on four Group-race efforts as a 2-year-old. Yes, of course horses can leave older form well behind, but the body of history suggests that ugly tape in the past can come back to haunt a horse, as we perhaps saw when she was shocked by Teona in the G1 Prix Vermeille.
Now, it could be that Snowfall will bounce back from that immediately and pick up the threads of her improvement, in which case she has decent claims.
Japanese challengers Chrono Genesis and Deep Bond are both interesting. The former has been near the top of our classifications for some time now, and rose again when beaten a neck by Mishriff in the G1 Sheema Classic at Meydan (TRC 121, compared with a best of TRC 125).
She did nothing to damage her reputation when resuming the winning thread in G1 back home at Han Shin after (TRC 123), but that was back in June and we have not seen her since. During her absence, she has lost ranking points steadily because uncertainty grows that she still has her best stuff.
By contrast, Deep Bond has exhibited his credentials more recently. He is a very strong stayer and was ridden to take advantage of his best asset when beating the super tough Broome by 1½ lengths in the G2 Prix Foy (TRC 120). The feeling is that Deep Bond will try to make this race an extreme test, which could catch out some of the other one-pace types like Hurricane Lane.
Finally, as mentioned at the top, there are a few we cannot rank up there, but whose trajectory is upwards.
It would be a surprise if Alenquer won, but he was running on behind Adayar in the Grand Prix de Paris and will be suited by a stronger all-round tempo here.
The filly Raabihah is even more interesting and rates as the best longshot. She has several times looked as if she could join the world’s Top 20 on talent and ran fifth here last year after a troubled trip. Like Torquator Tasso, she figures to be running on strongly at the end.
Breeders’ Cup Challenge
The Arc, of course, is also part of the Breeders’ Cup ‘Win and You’re In’ series – one of five on Sunday’s ParisLongchamp card. The winner will be entitled to a fees-paid berth in the Longines BC Turf at Del Mar on November 6. A minimum travel allowance of $40,000 is provided for all starters based outside North America.
The only horse so far to follow up Arc success by winning at the Breeders’ Cup was Enable in 2018, although Found won the Turf in 2015, the year before her Arc victory. High Chaparral was third in the 2002 Arc after starting favourite before winning the Turf a month later.