Who will be big in Japan this Sunday? A total of 18 candidates are due to line up for the 2021 Japan Cup at Tokyo, the joint richest race in Japan (alongside next month’s Arima Kinen) and as such one of the richest contests in the world.
Can Contrail sign off his career in the same spectacular style as the mare Gran Alegria last week? Can Broome boost the Breeders’ Cup Turf form? Can Grand Glory prove she is underrated on the international stage? Or will the Aidan O’Brien-trained Japan prove presciently named?
A performance of 120 or 121 is the par for the Japan Cup winner, according to TRC Computer Race Ratings. Here are the ten winners during the TRC Global Rankins era, arranged in descending order of performance in the mile-and-a-half race, showing the two figures closest to the median of 120.5:
Keeping this standard in mind, here are the candidates for 2021, ranked by decreasing TRC Global Ranking, who have run in Group or Graded races before; only the outsider Windjammer is not qualified for this domain:
So, five horses in the field already have a performance to their name in line with that required to win the Japan Cup in an average year: #25 Contrail, #40 Broome, #241 Aristoteles, #457 Samrei Pocket and #856 Kiseki. That these horses are not our Top 5 ranked contenders demonstrates there is more to our system of classifications than a single, elite performance.
#25 CONTRAIL stands out a mile on our numbers, though his best performances are from his outstanding Triple Crown season in 2020, most notably his victory in the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) by three lengths from Salios (TRC 127). He was also runner-up to the great Almond Eye in this race at the end of that campaign. He came back at 4 with a slightly disappointing run when third in the G1 Osaka Hai at Hanshin, but rebounded to near his best (TRC 125) when second to this year’s impressive G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) winner Efforia in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) at the end of last month.
#40 Broome showed a surprising amount of tactical speed when a close second to Yibir in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf. He was run down late there, but this doesn’t seem to offer him a better chance to shake clear. He is the second-ranked horse here and maybe the best chance for the race to go to a European challenger since Alkaased in 2005.
At this point we have to mention #165 Grand Glory. She just doesn’t come out that well on our numbers (TRC 116, ranked fifth in the race) compiled by the TRC computer, but the human handicapper charged with assessing form for the Racing Post Ratings framework has her top rated! That is on the basis of beating Audarya a short head in a G1 race for fillies at Deauville, whereas we have the best Japanese form a long way ahead.
This presents an interesting situation. Ratings the way we do them are a principled estimate of ability. It is always possible that a horse, or a group of horses, can improve sharply all together which will fox any algorithm – including the TRC one.
The top-rated horse by TRC Global Rankings (Contrail) is as short as 4/5 favourite in many places, while the top-rated horse by Racing Post Ratings (sourced on 25/11/2021 at 1930 BST) (Grand Glory) is 66/1 with bet365 bookmakers. But this does not mean one system is right and the other wrong. And, at 66/1, it is clear where the percentage call is, given that Racing Post Ratings are a highly respected measure of ability.
The other interesting horse is second favourite Shahryar, as short as 2/1 in most ante-post books. The 2021 crop of 3-year-olds in Japan did not look outstanding until Efforia’s form started to trend upwards, and now it is possible his G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) conqueror could again underline that the classic crop out East is underrated. Shhahryar disappointed last time out in the G2 Shimbun Hai, but the ground was soft on that occasion, and the son of Deep Impact is thought to be a lot better on a sound surface.
It's worth mentioning the close finish of the G2 Kyoto Daishoten, in which #180 Makahiki beat #241 Aristoteles and #856 Kiseki. We have all three horses as being not quite the force of old, but this could be wrong and one or more could just be circling back to form. They can all be backed at big prices.
At shorter odds, #104 Authority is the opposite case. He won his second G2 Copa Republica Argentina last up and races in the Almond Eye colours of Silk Racing. With Christophe Lemaire in the plate, he could make a bold bid.