The four competitive events of the Hong Kong International Races make up the last great racing festival of the year. The prize money is stellar, totalling HK$100 million ($12.8m), and the quality of the fields is very good.
The meeting is serving as a showcase for the force of Japanese runners on the world stage. Horses trained in Japan have won four of the last six Hong Kong Cups, the penultimate Hong Kong Mile, the latest running of the Sprint and two of the last five Hong Kong Vases – all from a select entry.
Let’s see how the locals stack up against the raiders using current TRC Global Rankings, or the last ranking a horse owned before it dropped out of the classifications owing to our rule that a horse must have run within 100 days.
G1 HONG KONG VASE (1m 4f)
As the TRC column, which shows each horse’s best performances implies, Glory Vase is clearly the most credentialed runner in this field, but his very best efforts are receding into the past somewhat as he rises 7 years old. Commensurately, the TRC algorithm has dropped him down the rankings, but this could be premature and a repeat of his 2019 victory in this could be on the cards.
Last year’s impressive winner, Mogul, still hasn’t reproduced that form, but perhaps these conditions suit him. He has always been a horse held in high regard.
The two horses who head our race ranking are improvers who need to run the race of their lives to prevail. Ebaiyra looked really progressive winning a G3 at Longchamp and a G2 at Saint-Cloud before running an excellent race when a length second to Broome in the G1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud. It is easy to forgive her latest effort in the G1 Prix Jean Romanet because front-running tactics did not seem to work. She could run a big one here.
PYLEDRIVER heads our rankings. This colt is seriously talented, even though we can’t rate him as such without making arbitrary adjustments for his style of victory. He has relentlessly improved and earned a career-best rating when winning the G1 Coronation Cup in June.
The worry is that fast ground won’t suit him ideally (he has raced awkwardly on a firm surface in the past) but there is potentially a big figure to come from this horse.
G1 HONG KONG SPRINT (6f)
This race has gone to the local horses historically, with Hong Kong having a strong sprint programme and an influx of talented young horses with speedy pedigrees. That could be changing, however. TRC Global Rankings contain no fixed international bias, so it is interesting that the three Japanese-trained horses rank 1-2-3, clear of the home contingent. We will see if it works out this way.
Last year, Japanese raider Danon Smash defied a wide draw to win comfortably and he has since won a second G1 back home. Pixie Knight is another strong contender from Japan, judged by his G1 Sprinters Stakes win at Nakayama in October, which was a career-best effort on our figures.
The filly RESISTENCIA was only second in the Nakayama affair, beaten two lengths, but she had earlier beaten Pixie Knight by a neck in the G2 Centaur at Chukyo. It’s the balance of her earlier form that we think gives her the edge: She was a brilliant 2-year-old who could be circling back towards those efforts, and the computer still believes she is no back number.
Hot King Prawn and Wellington are G1 winners among the home defence, but we like the improver Lucky Patch most among them, on the basis of his win in the trial for this, the G2 Jockey Club Sprint.
G1 HONG KONG MILE
One of the world’s great horses, GOLDEN SIXTY bids to join the likes of Able Friend and Beauty Generation as a dual winner of this race. He won the G2 Jockey Club Mile on his comeback with a familiar late swoop to beat Waikuku, but he will only be seen as the true titan he is when a championship pace prevails. With a horse of his run-style, trouble can always intervene, but it will be great to see him again and he will hopefully show the kind of form that made him a longstanding world #2.
Danon Kingly is seriously good. He hasn’t been the easiest to train for Kiyoshi Hagiwara this year, but his form lines stand up to the very closest inspection. He defeated Gran Alegria in the G1 Yasuda Kinen in June, before running second to subsequent Mile Championship runner-up Schnell Meister in a G2 last up, when he was reported to be lacking top sharpness.
Mother Earth is a rare 1000 Guineas winner to show her face in Hong Kong. She has been kept busy since that Newmarket win – taking her tally of career Group-race appearances to a stunning 16 already – and she picked up another G1 at Deauville. Overall, we see her as just behind the top two on merit.
Waikuku is not to be underestimated. He was second to Beauty Generation in this two years ago, and has since won two G1s locally. He fits at this level, for sure.
The remaining Japanese challenge is seriously strong. Salios sprung to fame as 3-year-old when chasing the great Contrail round during his Triple Crown season. Three starts this year have not seen him recapture his best yet, but there were better signs when he finished sixth to Gran Alegria in the G1 Mile Championship last up, which came after a lengthy break. Six-year-old Indy Champ also needs to find his best stride again, but his form is very good.
G1 HONG KONG CUP (1m 2f)
This is the deepest of the four races with six horses ranked in the world’s Top 200. We think DUBAI HONOUR deserves ranking above Loves Only You on the basis of his last three runs, yielding two G2 wins and a second to Sealiway in the G1 Champion Stakes at Ascot. The question is whether he can translate that to a faster racing surface.
We know that Loves Only You is very much at home on fast terrain. She takes a while to hit top stride, but her finishing burst is simply world class and was too much for her G1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf foes at Del Mar recently. She has a Sha Tin G1 already on her CV in the QEII Cup in April, when Glory Vase, Daring Tact and Kiseki were behind her.
In total, there are five G1 winners in the field. Panfield won four of them back home in Chile and it has been pleasing for our system to see he has run to the same level in Hong Kong, albeit with less success because the competition has been stronger. He stacks up well with some much better-known horses here, so we hope he will give a good account.
The G1 Belmont Derby Invitational winner Bolshoi Ballet is so hard to call right, but so good on his day, while fellow Irish raider Mac Swiney won the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas and looked to be coming around when a place behind Dubai Honour at Ascot last up.
Japanese raider Lei Papale has Christophe Soumillon up and has a massive reputation back home. It would be no surprise if she chose this stage to step forward.