Life Is Good’s brilliant all-the-way victory in the Pegasus World Cup has catapulted him to the top of the TRC Global Rankings. James Willoughby explains why.
Life Is Good, we already knew.
Life is Great? Perhaps.
Life Is Best in the World, right now.
The Pegasus World Cup for 2022 has resulted in a change at the top of TRC Global Rankings. Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Knicks Go has been deposed and will head into retirement at #3.
In his stead, the brilliant winner Life Is Good takes over at the top. Now, according to our rankings algorithm, beating the best is no guarantee of becoming the best – unless a horse has supporting evidence. And last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile provides that.
Our rankings are driven by TRC Computer Race Ratings, an entirely automated system seeking to find the set of race ratings that minimise inconsistencies in past results without so-called ‘overfitting’ – statistical language for getting too cute. We want a set of numbers that predicts the outcomes of head-to-head clashes between horses in future, and we let the machine go about doing that by using the past as a guide.
See the complete TRC Global Rankings
The TRC computer gave Life Is Good 127 for his effort on the World’s Best Racehorse Ratings scale. It also made the following changes to its race ratings: the Breeders’ Cup Classic (won by Knicks Go) came down 2pts to 129, the Dirt Mile (won by Life Is Good) went up 1pt to 130.
However, there was also a more subtle, cascading effect of the Pegasus. Third-placed Stilleto Boy ran better than the computer had estimated at Gulfstream Park. So, in these instances, a horse’s form is automatically reviewed. Did the upstart simply improve? Or should previous form be upgraded? In this case, the TRC computer saw the better option as the latter. And this happens to be important in this instance.
Stilleto Boy’s previous run was third in the G1 Malibu Stakes at Santa Anita late last year. He was beaten more than 12 lengths by the potentially brilliant Flightline – but he and lightly raced Baby Yoda (who, incidentally, owns a 114 Beyer in a non-Graded effort) were well clear of the remainder.
Following the maths, theTRC Computer had chosen a conservative assessment of this race with the first three being so lightly raced overall. Now, however, that race goes up 2pts – which fits the data better now the result of the Pegasus is known.
As a result of the Malibu being Flightline’s only Graded stakes run, he gets one of the most significant changes to a ranking in our history, for a horse just standing in his stall: the son of Tapit rises from #60 to #39. His next performance is pivotal, in a rankings context.
It seems like when a horse is as accomplished as Life Is Good, it can hand out this kind of compliment. After six starts in Graded stakes, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt reaches the top with five wins plus a defeat at the hands of #19 Jackie’s Warrior, no less, over an inadequate seven furlongs and off a layoff (jockey Mike Smith did not knock him about).
Where might pretenders to his top spot come from in 2022? Look no further than the aforementioned Flightline. What a boost for US racing it could be for the two to meet. Out east, the Japanese Horse of the Year Efforia sits at #5 and has such talent that he could render the argument of the top dog in America somewhat moot.
In Britain, dual G1 winner Baaeed is the great hope after victories in the QEII and Prix du Moulin. He stands unbeaten after four Group races at #8, and Flightline has some catching up to do on him.
There are all sorts of possibilities further down the rankings. They are speculative at this stage, but the great thing about the sport of racing is that champions can emerge from all corners of the world.
TRC Global Rankings reflects that international, cosmopolitan, multi-coloured reality. And it is true in our rankings of jockeys, trainers, owners and sires too.
The racing world is a smaller place. And Life Is Good.
See the complete TRC Global Rankings
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