Top-class dirt horses meet top-class turf runners on a level playing field. The Saudi Cup is an actual race – not a computer simulation.
This might be the best race the sport has ever staged on a level playing field for both turf and dirt horses. The dirt track at King Abdulaziz racecourse in Riyadh combines organic material and naturally occurring sand which requires the dry, local climate for its stability, so the Riyadh track's surface isn’t going to prove a global panacea, unfortunately.
But one day it could develop into the closest thing the sport has to a world championship race. Last year, Mishriff powered to victory like the relentless accumulator he is, surging ahead close home with great power and determination to beat the Bob Baffert-trained Charlatan, a G1 winner on dirt, with subsequent world champion Knicks Go back in fourth. Prince Faisal’s warhorse is back for another crack.
The 2022 renewal is the first to be run under the official international G1 banner. The field includes eight horses who have already won a race of this category, summarised in Table 1.
Could Mishriff do it again? Of course, but stall 14 won’t make life easy. The likely fast pace will really suit him though, and his TRC Computer Race Rating of 126 earned here last year will place him in the first two, at least.
We shouldn’t be too worried that the last time we saw Mishriff he underperformed on a soft surface in the G1 Champion Stakes at Ascot; he did the same thing before his victory last year.
What should be a big concern is the horse that won that race, the French runner Sealiway who is thriving and now switches to potential superstar trainer Francis Henri-Graffard, the current world #31 but a racing certainty to reach the Top 10 in time.
We haven’t seen the best of Sealiway yet. TRC Global Rankingsdon’t include potential, and he has an absolute ton of it. On our figures, beating Dubai Honour at Ascot by under a length doesn’t merit a world-class rating, but it could suggest Sealiway is moving towards one. And Graffard will have him ready, no bother.
The surface won’t be a problem for the athletic Sealiway like it wasn’t for Mishriff. If you watch the two horses side-by-side at Ascot, it is the former who moves like a brilliant horse. But does he have the stomach for a fight owned by the latter, if this becomes a slog? Few horses can ever match Mishriff in that department.
The Saudi Cup also tests last year’s US Classic form. We have raved about the three-year-old class of 2021 over there. That was muted somewhat when Knicks Go beat them all in the Classic, but that was just one performance and in loads of other races, the likes of Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon have performed at least as well as expected.
The pair warmed up for this at historic Fair Grounds in the G3 Louisiana Stakes in January. Mandaloun stalked his rival smoothly and found enough to hold back his sustained effort. Can both horses find the extra gear necessary to combat top turf horses?
No global showdown is complete without the Japanese. Here, a most intriguing runner takes the stage in T O Keynes. He destroyed the field late to win the G1 Champions Cup (former Japan Cup Dirt) at Chukyo and is completely unexposed. He seems to have a lot more talent than Breeders’ Cup Distaff winner Marche Lorraine, who benefitted from a pace meltdown at Del Mar. The latter should be suited by another strongly-run race, however.
Real World and Magny Cours represent world #1 owners Godolphin. The former is thriving and has reached world #31 without winning a G1 race. The son of Dark Angel has loads of tactical pace, and it shouldn’t be held against him that he did not fire on a conventional dirt surface at Meydan last year. Magny Cours managed third in a poor renewal of the Dubai World Cup by its own standards and should not be up to this.
That leaves the older American dirt horses, Art Collector and Country Grammer. The former has continued to show himself a very smart performer for Bill Mott and could easily reach a place, but the latter just doesn’t have the form for this, though his trainer Bob Baffert doesn’t tend to ship no-hopers. Perhaps Country Grammer is a lot better than we have seen.
James Willoughby's rankings advice
The highest-ranked horse #13 Mishriff is the race’s most likely winner. He has done it before and will make a bold bid, even from a wide gate. However, he has less upside than a number of runners ranked relatively close behind him, like#22 Mandaloun and #32 Real World.
The horse with the most potential is SEALIWAY especially as he has joined a very talented young trainer. He is world #51 because his earlier efforts anchor his ranking. But another big performance to add to his G1 Champion Stakes win and he will deserve a place in the world’s elite. He rates the value selection at double-digit odds.
• Visit the Saudi Cup website
Part 1 of our exclusive interview with Prince Bandar
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Probable fields released for world’s richest racecard in Riyadh
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