Nicholas Godfrey assesses the G1 action at Meydan – using TRC Global Rankings as his guide
There are pretenders to the crown, but the Dubai World Cup remains the most cosmopolitan meeting on the horse racing planet.
Moreover, with five Group 1 events deserving of the status among the eight Thoroughbred races, the Meydan card features a formidable array of top-class equine talent. If we include the Purebred Arabian race as well, a total of 32 G1 winners featured among initial fields, with $30.5m up for grabs.
Six G1 winners line up in the 26th running of the $12m main event, the Dubai World Cup, which features hoses trained in six separate nations on three continents. They include the to top two still-active dirt specialists on TRC Global Rankings, led by the brilliant Life Is Good, who moved to the #1 spot when defeating now-retired Knicks Go (#4) in the Pegasus World Cup.
This is how TRC Computer Race Ratings (TRC) rates the Dubai World Cup field; their current rankings are denoted with a ‘#’ before the horse’s name:
As a rule of thumb, anything above 115 can be regarded as a worthy G1 effort; numbers in excess of 120 mark out top-graded performers while anything above 125 is a superstar performance.
Which is where we come back to Life Is Good. The world #1 produced a career-best 130 in his spectacular Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile victory, while a 127 for the Pegasus was almost as impressive over an extra furlong.
With relatively few miles on the clock suggesting there might even be more to come, the four-year-old also has a favourable draw on the inner. And while TRC rankings make no allowance for verbosity, it doesn’t hurt that his trainer Todd Pletcher described his final piece of work as “dynamite…kind of a wow breeze”.
Yes, his ability to cope with the additional furlong must be taken on trust but with so much seemingly in his favour, there must be every chance he will light up the world under the Meydan floodlights and confirm his world-leading status.
#9 Hot Rod Charlie must rate the most likely danger. There was plenty to like about the this admirable colt’s prep run and he can be expected to improve a little, as it was a few points short of his optimum 127. If he runs to that sort of mark at Meydan, then Life Is Good can’t afford to drop below his best.
Another new feature in our tables designed to aid analysis is the addition of each participant’s three most recent rateable outings in Group races. At a glance, then it can be seen whether a horse is performing to its career-best, or whether a high number is a function of old form, their ranking subsequently degraded by the algorithm as it recedes down the gunsight of history.
This feature is potentially interesting with regard to the World Cup field, not least when it comes to the other two Americans, #101 Country Grammer and #207 Midnight Bourbon, need to find even more, though their relatively lowly position in the rankings stems from the algorithm not especially liking the form of the Saudi Cup. Shock winner Emblem Road got a TRC118, which would not be nearly enough to win this unless half the field throw in duds.
Of the others, #41 Real World has looked a G1 winner in the making virtually every time he steps on the turf. This, though, is dirt – and the son of Dark Angel has yet to show any aptitude (hence TRC88 in Saudi).
#529 Chuwa Wizard and #231 Magny Cours ran solid enough races when second and thid 12 months ago but that race was nowhere near as strong. On paper, UAE-based #78 Hypothetical would look vaguely interesting inasmuch as his career-best TRC116 came over course and distance three weeks ago in the designated trial, the Al Maktoum Challenge R3.
Even his best figure won’t be good enough, and his trainer Salem Bin Ghadayer has won four of the last six runnings, also scoring with Long River, Capezzano and Matterhorn. They were all ridden by Mickael Barzalona (like Hypothetical), and they all made the running for an emphatic victory (like Hypothetical). Come the big night, Long River was 11th and Capezzano, while the ill-fated Matterhorn didn’t run.
If Hypothetical gets out smartly from his wide draw, he could feasibly annoy Life Is Good up front – though probably at the cost to his own chances.
Nicholas Godfrey’s rankings-based verdict
Everything is in place for LIFE IS GOOD to demonstrate why he is world #1, with compatriot Hot Rod Charlie by some measure the most serious threat. Indeed, this could easily be a 1-2-3 for the Americans. And maybe 4 as well.
Dubai Sheema Classic
Potentially exciting, with six horses in the TRC Global Rankings Top 60. There really isn’t much between them – top-rated is #29 YIBIR, who achieved his peak rating on his final start of last year in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. This looks an even deeper race with several top-class Japanese visitors, but the longer straight should see this big-galloping type to even better effect.
That said, he has precious little in hand. Japan Cup runner-up #34 Authority is the highest-ranked of the Japanese after his Saudi win, while #48 Glory Vase is possibly underrated, despite his Hong Kong exploits. His career-best TRC122 matches Yibir and he is a fair price for each-way bettors.
The rankings algorithm doesn’t like excuses, but #166 Shahryar is the only horse to have beaten Efforia (world #2, due to return in next weekend’s Osaka Hai) in last year’s Japanese Derby. He got stuck in heavy ground next time and then had trouble in running before finishing well in the Japan Cup, which accounts for his rankings plummet.
Dubai Turf
Japan has a remarkable recent record on the international stage, and this race in particular has long been one of their favourites – they’ve won five altogether, including four of the last seven, and it s worth noting that #761 Vin De Garde, three-length runner-up 12 months ago, is clear outsider of the Japanese trio this time around.
#42 SCHNELL MEISTER could be the pick of the largest Dubai squad ever assembled from Japan. Already a G1 winner at home, his TRCs have been trending in the right direction and he was beaten only by that top-class racemare Gran Alegria when last seen. Compatriot #77 Panthalassa also merits a look – he posted a near G1 level performance to win last month’s Nakayama Kinen.
Four of his five wins at home have come from the front for that Panama-hatted pioneer Yoshito Yahagi. #218 Lord North beat an inferior field here 12 months ago and, while he needed the run badly on his Lingfield return, even if he can return to the level of a lifetime best TRC118, it probably isn’t enough for a repeat.
Dubai Golden Shaheen
Domestic Dubai dirt sprint form hasn’t looked any great shakes this year, and in any event, this habitually falls to a top-class US speedball – albeit with more than one scarcely believable performance over the years.
TRC Global Rankings suggest US visitors #80 Dr. Schivel and DRAIN THE CLOCK should have a bit in hand. The latter has no current ranking position because he hasn’t run in the last 150 days but previous efforts against the likes of Jackie’s Warrior and Life Is Good are quite imposing in this context. Sure, Dr. Schivel was only touched off in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and is hugely respected, but his rival is twice the price.
Al Quoz Sprint
Given his explosive performance on Super Saturday, it is easy to see why #123 Man Of Promise is such a warm order. That was a career-best TRC117 and William Buick stays loyal after beating several of his Al Quoz rivals out of sight; Charlie Appleby (world #1 trainer) has saddled Jungle Cat (2018) and Blue Point (2019) to complete a similar double in the Al Quoz.
However, it is not as if Man Of Promise is missed in the market, and devil’s advocate points to a favourable draw that day and, moreover, his past record suggesting he is best caught fresh. Will the three-week turnaround be up his alley?
For betting purposes, we have to look elsewhere – but not very far, because the favourite’s stablemate CREATIVE FORCE has ranked higher than Man Of Promise in the past and is already a G1 winner, albeit on softer ground. Suesa, too, has the TRCs to figure but the ground might not be ideal.
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