Man o’War, Gallant Fox, Secretariat and American Pharoah all came unstuck at Saratoga, which has long had a reputation as a dangerous venue for short-priced favorites. But is it any different at York and Del Mar in August? Geir Stabell investigates
It's that tasty time of the year again – when the most exciting meet of the US racing calendar is in full flight, and it is also the time when we are repeatedly told, somewhat boringly, that Saratoga is the ‘Graveyard of Champions’.
But is that a fact or a bit of a myth? Could it be that hotpots getting turned over in races like the Travers and the Whitney has more to do with the time of the year?
Saratoga and its west-coast counterpart Del Mar could hardly be farther apart geographically in US racing terms – but they still have rather more in common with each other than either does with York, where the hugely prestigious Ebor meeting dominates the August programme in Britain.
But all three showpiece tracks do have one thing in common: at each of them in August, short-priced champions often seem to get turned over.
York: the Brigadier is beaten
The list of high-profile names beaten at Saratoga is notorious indeed. From Man o’War to American Pharoah, via Gallant Fox – beaten in the Travers Stakes by 100-1 shot Jim Dandy back in 1930 – and Secretariat, plus a bit of Pleasant Colony and Conquistador Cielo. They came, they saw, they were conquered in upstate New York.
Surely, however, it isn’t anything like the same story at York? In fact, a closer look at the roll of honour for the marquee events on the Knavesmire in August reveals a pretty similar pattern. Put simply, on both sides of the Atlantic, this is the time of the season when seemingly sure things in top-level races have proved vulnerable – for whatever reasons.
The Juddmonte International, the Ebor meeting showpiece, has a history of some proper upsets. This race is not one where underdogs should fear a heavy favourite – a lesson learnt by those who attended the race in 1972, when it was run as the Benson & Hedges Gold Cup.
Brigadier Gerard, one of the greatest ever to grace the British Turf, was expected to cruise home – despite the fact that Vincent O'Brien had sent his Derby winner Roberto across the Irish Sea with top US-based Brazilian Braulio Baeza (much maligned in the UK) in the saddle to test the world-famous equine officer.
Roberto's presence did not deter punters from piling in on the favourite, who was sent off at 1-2, while the Derby winner’s backers could easily avail themselves to a juicy 8-1. Think about it.
A Classic winner, trained by Dr. O'Brien, going off at 8-1. It says it all, Brigadier Gerard was considered unbeatable. He wasn't. Roberto beat him by three lengths. For good measure, he lowered the track record too. The race caller's words as the Irish raider flew home: “Brigadier Gerard's unbeaten record is smashed to smithereens.” It was the runner-up's only defeat in 18 starts.
50-1 shot beats Golden Horn
An even bigger upset, at least in terms of odds, came as the filly Arabian Queen returned 50-1 when denying Derby winner Golden Horn in the 2015 edition of the Juddmonte International. Golden Horn was 4-9 favourite, even shorter than Brigadier Gerard.
He was quick to restore his reputation though, taking the Irish Champion Stakes and Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on his next two starts. What happened to Arabian Queen? Well, she participated in six G1s afterwards, but never went closer than sixth.
Such has been the fate of more than one upset winner of the Juddmonte. Three years ago, Japan took the race from 11-10 favourite Crystal Ocean, at the time officially the world's top-rated horse around and 7lb clear of his York rivals on official ratings following his close second to Enable in the King George.
Japan subsequently contested another 11 top-level events – without winning. The future was nowhere near as bleak for the 2006 Juddmonte winner Notnowcato, an 8-1 winner who had odds-on favourite Dylan Thomas three places behind him at York. Notnowcato finished last in the Champion Stakes at Newmarket seven weeks later but he captured two G1s in 2007.
That said, Juddmonte defeat is clearly no barrier to future success. Like Golden Horn did nine years later, Dylan Thomas bounced right back from the disappointment by winning the Irish Champion Stakes. Dylan Thomas also won himself an Arc, though that were to happen the following year.
Beware the longshot sprinters
York's G1 Nunthorpe Stakes, one of Europe's most important sprints, also has its share of upset winners. Yes, it has been won by odds-on favourites like Dayjur, Oasis Dream and Battaash – but how about as many as three massive outsiders lifting the prize within the last 12 runnings?
Sole Power scored at 100-1 in 2010 (readily beating 6-4 favourite Starspangledbanner), Jwala at 40-1 in 2013 (upsetting Mike de Kock's 3-1 favourite Shea Shea) and Alpha Dephini at 40-1 in 2018 (when Battaash was only fourth at odds of 4-5).
Such results made Winter Power's win seem like no more than a mild upset when she went in at 9-1 last year. But for her strong effort, yet another 40-1 shot, Emaraaty Ana, would have gone to the winners' enclosure. The two heavily backed favourites, French raider Suesa and US speedball Golden Pal, ran fourth and seventh respectively.
Vanquished in the Voltigeur
York also stages a key prep for the St Leger in the shape of the G2 Great Voltigeur Stakes, and this is another prestigious event that has produced upsets over the years. And again, losing at York is not necessarily a hindrance to future success. This year's King George winner Pyledriver surprised at 10-1 in the 2020 Great Voltigeur, easily beating hot favourite Mogul into third.
Pyledriver could manage only third in the Leger though, while Mogul stuck to a mile and a half and won the G1 Grand Prix de Paris in France on his next outing.
Monitor Closely, a 28-1 shocker when outclassing Mastery in the 2009 Great Voltigeur, is an even better example. Last of the seven he beat was the strong favourite Harbinger. Fast forward to the St Leger 24 days later, we find out that it was Mastery who would become a Classic winner, with Monitor Closely ran third at Doncaster.
Harbinger next went for a G3 at Newbury, which he lost, but came back to win all four races as a four-year-old, peaking with an 11-length win over Cape Blanco in Ascot’s midsummer showpiece, the King George at Ascot.
Champions do bounce back – it's what makes them champions
Losing in the Juddmonte International or Great Voltigeur is by no means a reason to consider bypassing autumn events like the Irish Champion, Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe or St Leger, no more than losing the Travers or Whitney is a reason to lower your sights heading into the North American fall.
Like American Pharoah after his humiliating defeat against Keen Ice at Saratoga, and Golden Horn after missing the target at York, Secretariat came back with all guns blazing after being beaten by the speedy Onion in the 1973 Whitney Stakes. Secretariat's defeat at the Spa will forever contribute to the 'Graveyard of Champions' theory, despite the fact that it has always been known that he was suffering from a viral infection.
Secretariat gained revenge in the Marlboro Cup Handicap at Belmont five weeks later, when he set a then world record for a mile and an eighth (1m45.4s), beating Riva Ridge, Cougar II and Onion.
Back to York, just to round off with another piece of interesting Juddmonte International fact. Whereas horses suffering defeat in the track's August highlight have gone straight to wins in the Irish Champion and even the Arc, the list of Juddmonte International winners that failed to win in subsequent runs includes headline makers Arabian Queen, Australia, Declaration Of War, Ghaiyyath, Postponed, Rip Van Winkle, Twice Over and Ulysses.
It would be considered nonsense by most if someone said after witnessing a Juddmonte winner that “this horse will never win again” – but in fact, that's exactly what so often happens.
Del Mar – another graveyard?
August in America also means high-class racing at Del Mar, where their lucrative meet's top event is the $1m Pacific Classic, traditionally staged in late August (though on September 3 in 2022).
And when we are speaking of champions that succumbed in August, how can we forget the legendary Cigar? His 16-race win streak came to an end in that very race in 1996, when 39-1 longshot Dare And Go, assisted by a suicidal early pace, ran by for a 3½-length win.
Cigar was 1-10 to stretch his unbeaten record and his defeat was a massive shock even for Californian racing fans, who were well accustomed to seeing heavy favorites lose pretty badly at Del Mar.
In 1994, the clear Pacific Classic betting choice was defending champion Bertrando. Back-to-back wins seemed a near formality – but he beat just one of his eight rivals, as the race fell to his 7-1 rival Tinners Way, who came back to repeat in '95, proving that – unlike Dare And Go's – his win was no fluke.
Another upset was witnessed in 1992, when wonder mare Paseana was made odds-on to better the boys in the Pacific. This ‘chalk’ runner also beat just one other finisher, passing the post way behind Missionary Ridge, at 24-1 the longest price on the board.
What's happened before will happen again
What about more modern times? As the Mayan saying goes: “What's happened before will happen again.” Five years ago, Arrogate went off at 7-10 to win the Pacific Classic, only to get turned over by his barnmate Collected.
The 2009 edition was expected to be a showdown between Hollywood Gold Cup winner Rail Trip and Colonel John, who had captured both the Santa Anita Derby and Travers Stakes the year before.
Experts and horseplayers alike struggled to separate these two heavyweights – and they certainly would have found it hard to predict the winner, Richard's Kid. He came from the clouds under Mike Smith, who had dropped his whip, and beat all at 24-1. Santa Anita Handicap winner Einstein filled second, Rail Trip managed third and Colonel John was only fifth.
Two years earlier, Lava Man went for back-to-back wins in the race and only one horse was seen as a serious threat, namely G2 San Diego Stakes winner Sun Boat. He finished stone last but it didn't help Lava Man all that much. He was beaten seven lengths into sixth place behind upset winner Student Council (23-1).
So is Del Mar also a graveyard of champions – or are we dealing with yet another late summer event producing results that make us feel like chucking all of our formbooks in a skip?
Champions like Secretariat, American Pharoah, Cigar, Brigadier Gerard, Dylan Thomas and Golden Horn, plus many others, all experienced a surprise defeat in August, at venues as vastly different and as far apart as Saratoga, Del Mar and York.
With that in mind, rather than blaming any specific venue for being the ‘Graveyard of Champions’, perhaps we should start talking about August as the 'Graveyard Shift'.
• Visit the racetrack websites NYRA Saratoga / Del Mar / York
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