In the first segment of his two-part Breeders’ Cup analysis, Graham Dench casts his expert eye over the European challenge for Future Stars Friday
Turf courses in the US tend to be sharper with shorter straights than the Europeans are used to – but Keeneland has the advantage of providing more suitable climate and underfoot conditions than are generally found on the west coast at Santa Anita and Del Mar.
Mind you, the visitors disappointingly drew a blank on day one when the Breeders’ Cup was last run at Keeneland two years ago, but that was all forgotten when they cleaned up in the four turf races on the Saturday card, two going to British runners and two to Irish. On the only previous occasion the event was held at Keeneland, in 2015, there were wins for Found and Hit It A Bomb, plus several near-misses.
BREEDERS’ CUP SATURDAY – READ GRAHAM DENCH’S ANALYSIS
This year’s challenge looks particularly strong and Charlie Appleby has assembled a formidable team. Appleby, who won three Saturday turf races at Del Mar last year and is a hugely impressive six-from-11 (54.5%) at the Breeders’ Cup, has leading chances with Silver Knott (Juvenile Turf), Modern Games (Mile) and both Nations Pride and Rebel’s Romance (Turf), plus half-chances in the Turf Sprint with Creative Force and Naval Crown, and in the Juvenile Turf Sprint with Mischief Magic.
Aidan O’Brien has enjoyed 13 Breeders’ Cup wins, but he has saddled no fewer than 162 runners, so his strike rate is just 8%. This year’s team lacks some of the quality we are used to, but remember Order Of Australia was a 73-1 chance when leading home a Ballydoyle 1-2-3 in the Mile at Keeneland in 2020, so long-odds runners can’t necessarily be dismissed.
Away from the two biggest teams watch out for John Quinn’s rags-to-riches mare Highfield Princess (Turf Sprint) and also powerful lightweight rider Hollie Doyle, who is enjoying unprecedented female success in Europe, on The Platinum Queen (Juvenile Turf Sprint) and Nashwa (Filly & Mare Turf).
European-based trainers with more than one BC win
BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF SPRINT
European record: 0 win 4 races (0%)
Star turn
Although Europe has yet to win this, Go Bears Go went close a year ago. Richard Fahey’s THE PLATINUM QUEEN is very much the star turn among the visitors. That said, the outside gate asks a big question of her, even though she is usually a fast starter by European standards and has bags of natural speed. A G1 winner from older sprinters in testing conditions in Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp, she had earlier chased home leading Turf Sprint fancy Highfield Princess on fast ground in the Nunthorpe at York. Hollie Doyle was on board both times and rides again.
Support team
Newmarket’s G1 Middle Park form is well represented through Persian Force (third) and Mischief Magic (fourth), but while both are solid sprinting juveniles, they have their limitations. A more likely winner could be the lightly raced and fresher Dramatised, who looked so exciting over 5f in the first half of the season. When she won the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot she had the Wesley Ward-trained Love Reigns in fourth and The Platinum Queen further back. She has pleased at home since failing to stay 6f in G2 Lowther Stakes. Lady Hollywood has solid form for up-and-coming trainer Alice Haynes.
BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
European record: 2 wins from 14 races (14.3%)
Star turn
The last European winner here was back in 2013, but Aidan O’Brien was second here with the relatively unfancied Mother Earth two years ago and he sends a strong candidate in the No Nay Never filly MEDITATE, whose four wins (including two G3s and G2) on her first four starts have been followed by more recent G1 seconds at 7f and 6f. While her stamina is not guaranteed, she was keeping on well both times when beaten and is expected to stay. Gate 10 is not helpful, however.
Support team
While this doesn’t look the most stellar renewal, there isn’t much more G1 form to go on from the visitors. Midnight Mile is another No Nay Never filly and a stable companion of Juvenile Turf Sprint fancy The Platinum Queen. She left it late when making it two from two in a G2 over 7f at Newmarket and shapes as if the longer trip will suit but is another drawn very wide. So is Basil Martini, who appeared to have little in hand when getting off the mark narrowly in a G3 event over 7f . Spirit Gal represents a small Irish stable unaccustomed to competing at this level, but she made all to beat one-time Juvenile Turf fancy Cairo (now a non-runner) on Dundalk’s all-weather surface and had solid turf form previously. Manhattan Jungle has run well in Group races since winning three times in France.
BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF
European record: 9 wins from 15 races (60.0%)
Star turn
Traditionally one of Europe’s strongest events, and one in which Charlie Appleby excels, with three winners and a second from only four runners. Appleby won this with Mile favourite Modern Games in 2021 at Del Mar, and SILVER KNOTT looks another strong contender, having recently won the Autumn Stakes over a mile at Newmarket, a G3 contest with an outstanding recent history. That form is already working out. The likely absence of any rain can only boost confidence – soft going was blamed for his defeat at Doncaster on his previous start.
Support team
Aidan O’Brien had options here but relies upon Victoria Road, who has drawn stall 1 and comes here at the top of his game, having won the last three of his seven races. He has had a busy campaign but is a proven stayer, having come from well off the pace to win a 1m1f G3 at Chantilly last time, and he ought to put up a bold show, without possibly having quite the class of Silver Knott.
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