In his latest column, Charles Hayward reflects on Keeneland’s two-day championships – which he watched avidly from his couch at home in Saratoga Springs
Like everybody else in the racing world, I was transfixed by Flightline’s astonishing display in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, which came as a triumphant climax to two wonderful days in front of the TV live and direct to my seat on the couch in Saratoga Springs.
“Brilliant is his normal,” said his usually more measured trainer John Sadler, speaking to assembled reporters after the race at Keeneland. “He didn’t disappoint. He never has. He’s a remarkable, remarkable horse. In the words of Bud Delp, he’s one of the best horses to ever look through a bridle. He’s just that good. He’s a culmination of your life’s work. Most trainers don’t get a horse like this. I’m feeling very blessed.”
Sadler has done a brilliant job in keeping this horse together and, despite the excellent speed that Flightline possesses, he taught the horse to rate even at a very fast pace.
By the time Flightline got to Life is Good at the quarter pole on Saturday, the race was over. Flightline won by 8¼ lengths and it looked like he could have won by considerably more. The way he finished suggests to me that there was a lot left in the tank.
Prudent thing to do
We will never get the chance to find out, of course, because Flightline has been retired to Lane’s End – to the consternation of many racing fans across the globe.
However, I believe it was the prudent thing to do. There were suggestions that prior to the Breeders’ Cup Classic that Flightline's value was somewhere between $40-$60 million and some talk of a valuation as high as $80 million.
Taken at face value, the subsequent sale of a 2.5% share for $4.6m in the sales pavilion at Keeneland would value Flightline at $184m. Admittedly, this is probably an inflated sum due to the scarcity of the 40th share – but it is still a heck of a sum, not easily (or cheaply) insured.
Needless to say, there are some astute breeders involved in the Flightline ownership, and I do not believe that the horse has anything further to prove on the track. His career as a racehorse lasted only six races, but he did win all of them – and four of the six races were G1 stakes that he won comfortably and emphatically.
A look at the Beyer speed figures from Saturday’s card is instructive. Flightline’s assigned figure of 121 at Keeneland was, unsurprisingly, five points below his astounding career-high in the Pacific Classic.
That said, it is hardly shabby – and it is worth noting that both the second- and third-placed horses, Olympiad (111) and Taiba (110), achieved higher Beyers than any other horses elsewhere on the card.
BREEDERS’ CUP 2022: BEST BEYERS*
1. Flightline 121 Classic
2. Olympiad 111 Classic (2nd)
3. Taiba 110 Classic (3rd)
4. Caravel 107 Turf Sprint
Rebel’s Romance 107 Turf
6. Cody’s Wish 106 Dirt Mile
Rich Strike 106 Classic (4th)
8. Cyberknife 105 Dirt Mile (2nd)
Emaraaty Ana 105 Turf Sprint (2nd)
Life Is Good 105 Classic (5th)
Tuesday 105 F&M Turf
• as per Daily Racing Form
What is noticeable here is how five of those listed achieved their ratings in the Classic, giving substance to the merit of Flightline’s performance on the clock. He was fully 14 Beyer points better than the next-best winners on Saturday’s card.
Secretariat comparisons
A comparison to other Thoroughbred champions is an interesting exercise. Secretariat was a brilliant racehorse who was named Horse of the Year in each of his two campaigns – a rarity as a two-year-old in 1972.
I would argue that he put his three best races together to win the Triple Crown. He ran in the Wood Memorial before the Kentucky Derby and finished a well-beaten third in a six-horse field, though excuses were offered.
Secretariat won four of his six races after the Triple Crown – but he also finished a notorious second (to Onion) at odds of 1-10 in the Whitney Handicap, and second (to Prove Out) in a sloppy Woodward at 3-10.
That said, Secretariat ran a whole lot – 21 races in a 16-month period – and even finished up winning on turf, whereas Flightline has run six times in his life.
How about Cigar?
However, I would suggest that people look at the lifetime record of Cigar for a stronger comparison. Cigar broke his maiden in his second start on the dirt and then he ran 11 races on turf and won only one of them.
Moved to Bill Mott and switched back to dirt, he won his Aqueduct allowance by eight lengths and went on a famous 16-race winning spree featuring both the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the inaugural Dubai World Cup.
Flightline’s jockey Flavien Prat kept the ride on the superstar – despite moving his tack to the east coast this year in search of greater glory on the New York tracks and Eclipse Award recognition.
Of course, Prat was no secret in California, where the former French champion apprentice has won a multitude of major races. He has finished in the top five nationally in prize-money in two of the last five seasons; he stands second this time around behind only the indefatigable Irad Ortiz.
Mind you, there is an irony at play here, since a huge chunk of Prat’s earnings have come via Flightline and his west coast associations. Then again, a lucrative association with Chad Brown has also provided G1 success in 2022 and I’ve been very impressed with him since his move.
Wider stage for Prat
Others, doubtless, were already well aware of his talents but now he is known on an even wider stage. His record at New York’s premier meet, Saratoga, spoke for itself: despite having to develop new relationships with trainers and owners, Prat was tied for #2 with Luis Saez in wins and higher in total purse earnings.
Obviously Saratoga is my hometown venue and the place on which I tend to place more emphasis – and I fully expect Prat to compete for the Saratoga jockey title in 2023.
Prat and his US-based colleagues were outdone for the annual Bill Shoemaker Award for the jockey riding most winners at the Breeders’ Cup when the trophy went to Ballydoyle’s retained rider Ryan Moore. Although Moore was tied with Irad Ortiz on three winners, the Englishman prevailed as he rode more seconds. Congratulations to Ryan Moore and his team!
And what about my betting from the Saratoga couch? On Friday I was mildly interested in Wonder Wheel in the Juvenile Fillies, although she was hardly an unknown after her victory in the G1 Alcibiades a month ago over course and distance.
She was trained by Hall of Famer Mark Casse, owned by a good outfit in DJ Stable and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. The on-screen TV talent mentioned that Gaffalione had ridden over 30 Breeders’ Cup horses since 2016 with no winners, which I must admit surprised me.
Remarkable ride
So in the end I did not bet the race. It resulted in a truly remarkable ride from Gaffalione as Wonder Wheel prevailed. I guess you can’t win them all!
The TV coverage was incredible. Randy Moss and Jerry Bailey were standing up and had convinced some tech person to show Wonder Wheel moving between horses in an unbelievable manner to win the race. I had never seen Bailey, Moss or anyone set up such an amazing overhead replay. So Gaffalione gets his first BC winner after six years and 30+ tries.
Just to finish up the story, it was interesting to see that Gaffalione had 10 mounts out of the 14 races. Here are the approximate final odds for each of his 10 mounts. 25-1, 6.5-1, 48-1, 14-1, 43-1, 3.7-1, 31-1, 39-1, 52-1, and 26-1.
So not exactly leading fancies overall – but nevertheless the hitherto winless Gaffalione struck again with the Brad Cox-trained Caravel, who wired the field in the Turf Sprint, the only US horse to hold off the Europeans – at odds of 42.89-1.
I went to Equibase to look at the jockey standings. Through November 7 – ie. after the Breeders’ Cup – Irad Ortiz remains #1 in the US for jockey purse earnings $34.6m from 1,180 rides.
Gaffalione, has an amazing 1,316 starts – more than anybody else among the top 100 jockeys listed – for total purse earnings of $25.0m, which puts him at #4 nationwide.
Hammering home an old truth
It would be nothing short of teaching grandma to suck eggs to remind everyone about how European breeding is focussed much more on turf pedigrees than North America – after all, there is no significant dirt racing across the Atlantic, where even the minuscule amount of non-turf stakes contests are usually run on synthetic surfaces (or all-weather, as they call them in England).
But for European trainers to take away six of the seven available grass races at the Breeders’ Cup, three each for Coolmore and Godolphin, can serve only to hammer home an age-old truism.
One thought that occurs to me is that in recent years we have seen incremental increases in the number of turf races being carded in the US – yet there is nowhere near the commitment to turf breeding and pedigree that certainly exists in Ireland, the UK and France.
Perhaps it might serve US breeders, the racetracks and their owners well to study what point of view the individual constituents have regarding their investments in the breeding shed and what the racetracks plan to do with their racing services.
The Breeders’ Cup must have access to a tremendous amount of data generated by the tracks and owners outside the US that run in programs like the ‘Win and You’re In’ Challenge to see if there are trends or information that can inform our racing and breeding decisions.
Finally, let me repeat my congratulations to the Breeders’ Cup for their great success in expanding their reach around the globe which can also help the domestic racing and breeding industry understand what we should be planning strategically.
• View all Charles Hayward’s previous articles in his influential View from the Rail series
• Visit the Breeders' Cup website
View the latest TRC Global Rankings for horses / jockeys / trainers / sires