In the second part of his in-depth Breeders’ Cup analysis, Graham Dench runs the rule over the European challenge for Day Two
BREEDERS’ CUP FRIDAY: READ GRAHAM DENCH’S ANALYSIS
European-based jockeys with more than one BC win
MAKER’S MARK BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY & MARE TURF
European record: 11 wins from 24 races (45.8%)
Star turn
INSPIRAL was re-routed here after underfoot conditions at Ascot on British Champions Day became too testing for her. A G1 winner over 1m at two, three and four – most recently when scoring very easily in Newmarket’s Sun Chariot Stakes – she will have her stamina to prove over an extra couple of furlongs but the two turns will help and she stands out on form so it’s worth taking the chance. She has two of her main market rivals to her inside, but she’s normally held up and gate 6 shouldn’t be a disadvantage.
Support team
Except for a blip in the Irish Oaks, Aidan O’Brien-trained Warm Heart (drawn 2) has improved with every race, and this year’s five wins include a G2 at Royal Ascot (from Lumiere Rock) and recent G1 wins in the Yorkshire Oaks and Prix Vermeille. It remains to be seen if she has the speed to cope with Inspiral over this shorter distance, but she’s top-class and very genuine.
Lumiere Rock looks better at this shorter trip and is a solid candidate for O’Brien’s son Joseph, who won this with Iridessa. Despite gate 11 she is much preferred to Listed winner State Occasion (drawn on the wide outside) and With The Moonlight, although the latter, is well berthed and should be all the better for her recent Woodbine second to Fev Rover, who she reopposes.
FANDUEL BREEDERS’ CUP MILE
European record: 17 wins from 39 races (43.6%)
Star turn
Godolphin have won the last two runnings with Space Blues and Modern Games and they have a strong team again. There’s not much between their two runners on best form, and both are G1 winners in the US this year, but the post-position draw was much kinder to Modern Games’s half-sister MAWJ with gate 6 than it was to Master Of The Seas in 14.
Mawj is unbeaten in four starts this year, including in the 1000 Guineas and the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland. She is taking on males for the first time, as well as top-class Japanese mare Songline, but she is sure to make a bold bid from the front once again. If successful she would be a popular first Breeders’ Cup winner since 2009 for Saeed Bin Suroor, who won the Juvenile that year at Santa Anita with Vale Of York.
Support team
Former 2000 Guineas runner-up Master Of The Seas bids to give Charlie Appleby and William Buick a hat-trick of wins here. He was back on song in a G2 at Ascot in the summer and followed up with an impressive win in the G1 Woodbine Mile in September, but he was then beaten by Up To The Mark, who runs instead in the Turf, at Keeneland.
French challenger Kelina enjoys quick ground and beat last year’s Mile third Kinross in the Prix de la Foret over 7f at Longchamp last time. She carries the same colours as triple Mile winner Goldikova and must also come into calculations.
LONGINES BREEDERS’ CUP TURF
European record: 24 wins from 39 races (61.5%)
Star turn
The visitors are favoured by regular competition on turf over this distance and at Keeneland last year they took five of the first six places, led by Rebels Romance. It would be too much to expect such domination at Santa Anita, but there’s no question it’s a strong team again, boosted by the addition of MOSTAHDAF, who switched here from the Qipco Champion Stakes on account of unsuitable soft ground at Ascot.
Mostahdaf found 1m4f against a superstar just beyond him when fourth behind Equinox in the Dubai Sheema Classic, but his record at 1m2f this year is faultless and comprises a runaway seven-length win in the Neom Cup on the Saudi Cup card, an impressive last-to-first four-length win in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot, and an all-the-way defeat of Nashwa and Paddington in the Juddmonte International.
He won over 1m4f on an artificial surface last year and he loves fast ground. He’s also tactically versatile, so gate 9 ought not to be a problem.
Support team
With six winners, Aidan O’Brien has a formidable record in this race. Auguste Rodin has been aimed here since beating a top-class field in the Irish Champion Stakes for a third G1 win of the year, following success in the Epsom Derby (from the Champion Stakes winner King Of Steel) and the Irish Derby. However, his other two runs, in the 2000 Guineas and the King George, were dismal failures, so he’s a far from solid proposition after a long flight to an unfamiliar climate.
The dual Derby winner is joined by Aidan O’Brien-trained stablemates Bolshoi Ballet and Broome, both also G1 winners and the former as recently as August at Saratoga, for John Velazquez.
It’s a quick turnaround for King Of Steel, on likely very different ground, but he thoroughly deserved his Ascot win, where he was partnered for the first time by Frankie Dettori, and gate 11 is not the biggest worry as he’s likely to be coming from behind anyway. Connections hold him in such high regard they were even toying with the Classic on dirt for him. Watch out for him – he’s a giant.
Firm ground might be a concern for Onesto, but he gave Luxembourg a fright over 1m2f at Leopardstown last year and was back to his best when third to Ace Impact over this trip in the Arc.
TURF SPRINT
European record: 1 win from 15 races (6.7%)
Star turn
Glass Slippers won at Keeneland three years ago and three Europeans filled the frame behind this year’s defending champion Caravel 12 months ago, but the visitors usually struggle to match the home team for pure speed.
However, nothing could quite match the sheer pace of LIVE IN THE DREAM when he beat last year’s BC Turf Sprint fourth Highfield Princess in the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes at York, and Adam West’s surprise package showed he could mix it with US sprinters in a G2 over 5½f at Keeneland for his Breeders’ Cup prep race, when he broke fast and showed terrific speed until fading into fourth late on.
This return to a bare 5f is a big plus, and he’s a fast starter, so gate 5 ought to be okay. Connections are new to this level, but they are making the most of it and if goodwill counter for anything, he’d have already won.
Support team
In the unfortunate absence of Royal Ascot winner Bradsell, scratched on Wednesday, the only other European runner is Aesop’s Fables. Although he is hard to weigh up, he looked a different proposition in first-time blinkers last time out in the Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp, rattling home in third from a poor draw. At double-figure odds, there could be worse each-way options.
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