In the first segment of his two-part Breeders’ Cup analysis, Graham Dench casts his expert eye over the European challenge for ‘Future Stars Friday’
BREEDERS’ CUP SATURDAY: READ GRAHAM DENCH’S ANALYSIS
The climate and track configuration at Santa Anita might not suit the Europeans as well as last year Keeneland, where Charlie Appleby and Aidan O’Brien each enjoyed three wins.
On the other hand, this will be the 11th time the Breeders’ Cup has been held here and so they ought to know what to expect.
Mind you, familiarity with the venue has brought limited comfort in the past. The last time the Breeders’ Cup was held at Santa Anita in 2019 it was a rather bleak event for the visitors, brightened only by the success of Joseph O’Brien’s Iridessa in the Filly & Mare Turf.
In 2016 Queen’s Trust (Filly & Mare again) and Highland Reel (Turf) were the only winners, and Karakontie (Turf Mile) was the sole success of 2014.
Then again, the last time the event was held on the west coast at Del Mar in 2021, Europe came away with three winners courtesy of Appleby – and they weren’t the only visitors to shine, as Japan recorded a historic double.
O’Brien (16 previous wins), Appleby (nine) and one-time California-based John Gosden (five) will all be well represented over the two days, while Saeed Bin Suroor (three) is making a welcome return with Mawj, who bids to emulate her half-brother Modern Games by winning the Mile.
European-based trainers with more than one BC win
BREEDERS’ CUP JUVENILE TURF SPRINT
European record: 1 win 5 races (20%)
Star turn
The name Appleby has become synonymous with Breeders’ Cup success, and 12 months ago at Keeneland, Charlie Appleby’s Mischief Magic gave Europe an overdue first win in a Juvenile Turf Sprint in which four of the first five were visitors.
He is without a runner this time, but another Appleby has a first chance to add his name to the Breeders’ Cup winners’ list, and it’s a big chance too. Mick Appleby (no relation) saddles the speedy Big Evs, who won over 5f at Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood and impressed in a G2 over the trip at Doncaster last month. Big Evs is unproven around a bend, but he likes to get out and get on with it and so gate 4 is a positive.
Support team
Cherry Blossom, who was fourth in the G1 Cheveley Park Stakes over 6f and had earlier been second at up to 7f, does not look an obvious 5f performer, while Irish-trained compatriot Givemethebeatboys is another who has been showing solid G1 form over further.
Valiant Force has bags of speed and ran his best race when winning the G2 Norfolk Stakes over 5f at Royal Ascot, but gate 10 is not helpful. Tiger Belle was a G3 winner over this trip at Longchamp, albeit on soft ground, and she is much better berthed in 3. Starlust has had a good season but has done all his racing over 6f and he is drawn widest of all in 14.
The home defence looks strong, and British racegoers will be all too familiar with George Weaver’s Crimson Advocate, who inflicted the only defeat of the year on the speedy Relief Rally when a narrow winner of the G2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot. She and her stable-mate No Nay Mets, who also travelled over, are drawn closest to the rail.
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
European record: 3 wins 15 races (20%)
Star turn
Royal Ascot’s Albany winner PORTA FORTUNA looks the pick of the European challenge, having gained a deserved first G1 win after two strong placings at up to 7f when winning the Cheveley Park Stakes over 6f at Newmarket. Drawn 6, she is a strong first Breeders’ Cup runner for Aidan O’Brien’s younger son Donnacha, whose brother Joseph has done so well here.
Support team
O’Brien snr’s Meditate overcame a wide draw in impressive fashion last year, giving Europe a first win since 2013, and this year he saddles Content, who was a G3 winner at 1m.
Former Godolphin racing manager Simon Crisford bids for a first Breeders’ Cup win with Carla’s Way. Gate 9 is not helpful and she finished in midfield behind Porta Fortuna at Royal Ascot, but she showed much better form when a good G2 winner over 7f at Newmarket last time.
French challenger Les Pavots needs to improve again on her third behind the impressive Opera SInger in the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac over this trip at Longchamp, and is drawn widest of all in 14.
JUVENILE
European record: 4 wins 39 races (10.25%)
European-trained two-year-olds have won on the dirt in America’s senior juvenile contest – most notably via Arazi (1991) and Johannesburg (2002). However, Cuban Thunder is neither an Arazi nor a Johannesburg – nor anywhere near, frankly.
He looked good for another stable in a 6f maiden at York in May but has struggled in better company since, including in two races for his current trainer. His latest third in a Listed race at Dundalk, his first run on an artificial surface, was a bit better, but he’s hardly a star turn. That’s why you can get 50-1 and more about his chances in the UK.
JUVENILE TURF
European record: 10 wins from 16 races (62.5%)
Star turn
Traditionally one of Europe’s strongest events, and Aidan O’Brien is three-handed as he looks for his sixth win in a race he won last year win with Victoria Road.
Slight preference is for UNQUESTIONABLE, even though Ryan Moore has looked elsewhere. Frankie Dettori’s booking is hardly a negative, and Al Shaqab’s Wootton Bassett colt ran Bucanero Fuerte to a short head in the G2 Railway Stakes over 6f at The Curragh before chasing home the smart Rosallion over 7f at Longchamp in the G1 Lagardere, which is widely recognised as France’s strongest juvenile race for colts. He banged his head in the gate when disappointing in between.
Support team
O’Brien also saddles Dundalk Listed winner Mountain Bear and River Tiber, who is Moore’s preference, berthed in gate 2. Another son of Wootton Bassett, River Tiber won Royal Ascot’s G2 Coventry Stakes over 6f and has been placed twice since behind Vandeek in G1s over the same distance. He’ll have every chance if staying the extra 2f, and European bookies are struggling to separate him and stablemate Unquestionable.
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