Graham Dench runs the rule over the three-year-olds currently taking high rank in calculations for the Betfred-sponsored Derby, Europe’s most prestigious Classic at Epsom on Saturday June 1
GB: Six of the last seven winners of the Epsom Derby have been trained by either Aidan O’Brien or Charlie Appleby, so it is no surprise that the ante-post markets for the Betfred-sponsored Classic on June 1 are dominated by colts from those two powerhouse stables.
O’Brien currently has the first two in the betting, including a very strong favourite in the unbeaten Justify colt City Of Troy, while Appleby has the next two. However, it’s worth repeating that their Derby winners have not always been colts who even those closest to them were considering at this stage.
For it’s one of the sport’s endless fascinations that horses develop at different rates – particularly immature three-year-olds who are taking big steps up in distance. After all, how many of us can claim to have had Wings Of Eagles (2017), Serpentine (2020) or Adayar (2021) in our sights at this stage.
1. CITY OF TROY trained by Aidan O’Brien (Ire)
b c Justify - Together Forever (Galileo)
Odds generally available: 2-1f
If it was difficult to fault the Epsom Derby claims of Auguste Rodin 12 months ago, then it’s even harder to pick holes in the credentials of his much-lauded stablemate City Of Troy, who was an even better two-year-old.
Auguste Rodin had signed off at two with a stylish win in the G1 Futurity at Doncaster. At three he ran two inexplicably bad races, but he made no mistake when running down the subsequent Champion Stakes winner King Of Steel at Epsom, and his Breeders’ Cup Turf win was his fifth G1 success.
City Of Troy, by 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify out of G1 Fillies’ Mile winner Together Forever, looks even better. Unbeaten in three starts, he looked all over a future Classic winner, his impressive wins at Newmarket in the G2 Superlative Stakes and the G1 Dewhurst seeing him widely recognised as being head and shoulders above his contemporaries.
Like Auguste Rodin and so many of Aidan O’Brien’s Derby prospects, he will be targeted first at the 2,000 Guineas, for which he is already odds-on. However, there is little doubt he will be every bit as effective over a mile and a half, and at this stage he looks by far the likeliest winner of the Derby, which his trainer has already won a record nine times. Talk of him as Britain’s first Triple Crown winner since Nijinsky in 1970 is not that fanciful.
2. HENRY LONGFELLOW Aidan O’Brien (Ire)
b c Dubawi - Minding (Galileo)
Odds 8-1
Another impeccably bred and unbeaten Ballydoyle colt, albeit one yet to be tested anywhere but the Curragh. What is more, he is by no means as sure to appreciate the Derby distance as City Of Troy.
Henry Longfellow won his three races in style, the last of them the G1 National Stakes in which City Of Troy was a late non-runner. As a five-length winner Henry Longfellow proved a more than adequate substitute, but it was a muddling four-runner race in which main market rival Bucanero Fuente wasn’t seen to advantage, so the value of the form is a little suspect.
Then there is the pedigree to consider. Henry Longfellow’s dam Minding was a seven-time G1 winner and one of Ballydoyle’s finest fillies, but she was more about speed than stamina and after she won a weak Oaks she wasn’t persevered with over 1m4f.
The sire Dubawi didn’t get the trip in the Derby, and even the best of his 1m4f winners, such as Ghaiyyath and New Bay, did better dropped back in distance.
3. ANCIENT WISDOM Charlie Appleby (GB)
b c Dubawi - Golden Valentine (Dalakhani)
Odds 8-1
Godolphin’s most obvious Epsom hope, but he’s another Dubawi, which on paper triggers some concerns regarding stamina. That said though, the dam’s side of the pedigree is strong in that respect, Golden Valentine having shown the influence of Dalakhani when a very strong stayer over 1m4f.
Ancient Wisdom, a €2m yearling, has been campaigned more with the Derby in mind than the 2,000 Guineas and put up two strong performances at a mile, first of all on soft ground in Newmarket’s G3 Autumn Stakes – a race Godolphin have farmed – and then on heavy in the Futurity at Doncaster.
It might not have been a vintage renewal of the Futurity, a race in which Auguste Rodin had been the sixth subsequent Derby winner to prevail 12 months earlier, but he got the job done and was well on top at the finish.
4. ARABIAN CROWN Charlie Appleby (GB)
b c Dubawi - Dubai Rose (Dubai Destination)
Odds 12-1
Yet another son of Dubawi, this one has already confirmed himself among his sire’s strongest stayers, his third and last win of 2023 having come in the G3 Zetland Stakes at Newmarket over 1m2f – an extreme distance for a two-year-old and one over which there are only a handful of opportunities.
Arabian Crown travelled much the best that day and he extended right away in the last two furlongs to win eased down by more than five lengths from the O’Brien-trained second favourite Gasper De Lemos, who was up in class after a good maiden win.
The form is nothing to write home about, but Arabian Crown looks the sort to improve again at three and will be well worth his chance in one of the trials.
5. DIEGO VELAZQUEZ Aidan O’Brien (Ire)
b c Frankel - Sweepstake (Acclamation)
Odds 16-1
Diego Velazquez lost his unbeaten record with a heavy defeat behind Ancient Wisdom in the Futurity, but he can be forgiven. His long-priced stablemate Battle Cry, who was presumably an intended pacemaker, went down in the stalls, so the pace was relatively steady, and jockey James Doyle was adamant that the heavy ground hadn’t suited, pointing out that he has “a beautiful light-action”. On that basis perhaps we should draw a line through the run, in which case he’s overpriced.
A 2.4m guineas yearling by Frankel, sire of the 2021 Derby winner Adayar, he is closely related to the Dubai Gold Cup winner Broome and remains a colt of considerable potential.
6. GHOSTWRITER Clive Cox (GB)
b c Invincible Spirit - Moorside (Champs Elysees)
Odds 20-1
Trainer Clive Cox has never been one to talk up his horses unduly, so we should take notice when he says that Ghostwriter is the first horse he’s had in more than 30 years with a licence worth aiming at the Derby.
Those words came after a Newmarket win in the G2 Royal Lodge Stakes over a mile at Newmarket, a race won by subsequent Derby winners Shirley Heights and Benny The Dip when it was run at Ascot. It was Ghostwriter's third win from three starts, and each time he has taken a substantial step forward. He was strong at the finish every time, and he ought to get 1m4f.
We’ll know a lot more when we’ve seen him again in a Derby trial, but he looks a good prospect.
7. LOS ANGELES Aidan O’Brien (Ire)
b c Camelot - Frequential (Dansili)
Odds 20-1
Aidan O’Brien has sexier Derby prospects than Los Angeles, but all the same there’s a lot to like about this unbeaten colt, who is by Derby winner Camelot and is already a G1 winner over 1m2f, so pretty much guaranteed to appreciate 1m4f-plus at three.
Stepped straight up to G1 company in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud and partnered by Christophe Soumillon following a debut win in a Tipperary maiden, he looked the stable’s second string behind Ryan Moore’s mount Illinois. The Joseph O’Brien-trained Islandsinthestream was also fancied, but in what looked a truly-run race there was none stronger at the finish than Los Angeles, who bagged the stands’ side rail in the straight and got up to win by a neck and three-quarters of a length.
A big, imposing individual who ought to make an even better three-year-old, one could see him having his Derby credentials tested next in something like the Chester Vase.
8. ILLINOIS Aidan O’Brien (Ire)
b c Galileo - Danedrop (Danehill)
Odds 33-1
It’s no wonder that Illinois got rave reviews from jockey Seamus Heffernan after his winning debut over nine furlongs at the Curragh, for he is a good-looking Galileo half-brother to the Arc winner Danedream and he won impressively, despite getting to the front plenty soon enough and then looking about.
Although he finished only third behind stablemate Los Angeles next time when tackling G1 company over 1m2f in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud, he was beaten only a length and it was probably significant that Ryan Moore had preferred him to the winner. He retains Derby potential.
9. KALIDASA Charlie Appleby (GB)
b c Frankel - So Mi Dar (Dubawi)
Odds 40-1
Kalidasa was making headlines long before he set foot on the racecourse, as he fetched no less than 2.8m guineas at Tattersalls’ Book 1 yearling sale. He could hardly be better bred on either side of his pedigree, for he is by Frankel out of So Mi Dar, who would have nearly started favourite for the Oaks but for having to miss the race.
So Mi Dar didn’t win a G1 event, but it’s a family which has done exceptionally well and she’s a sister to champion two-year-old and Sussex Stakes winner Too Darn Hot and a daughter of Dubai Sheema Classic winner Da Re Mi.
Charlie Appleby has more obvious Derby candidates for sure, but Kalidasa’s belated start in a maiden on Wolverhampton’s all-weather track in January couldn’t have gone much better and there’s no telling what heights he might reach this summer.
10. FEIGNING MADNESS Ralph Beckett (GB)
ch c Ulysses - Dance The Dream (Sir Percy)
Odds 50-1
Feigning Madness needs a ton of improvement to deserve serious consideration for Epsom, but he’s got plenty going for him and his trainer Ralph Beckett implied that he’d already done enough to earn his place in one of the recognised Derby trials this spring when he carried a penalty successfully in a Newmarket novice.
He got home by just a nose there, leading right on the post, but he’d been too inexperienced to do himself full justice, just as he had been on his debut at Newbury, where he also got up late in the piece. He’s crying out for further, and open to any amount of improvement when he learns to race properly and steps up to 1m4f.
11. GOD’S WINDOW John & Thady Gosden (GB)
b c Dubawi - Perfect Clarity (Nathaniel)
Odds 33-1
Yet another Dubawi, but one with plenty of stamina on the dam’s side – Perfect Clarity won an Oaks Trial at just short of 1m4f and produced a filly by Zoffany who appeared to get the trip with her only previous foal.
God’s Window looked the part when winning a one-mile maiden at Doncaster on his debut, and he did well considering his inexperience and a slow start when a running-on third behind Ancient Wisdom and Devil’s Point in the Futurity over the same course and distance on his only other start.
While Thady Gosden wasn’t talking him up as a Derby hope afterwards, the Futurity is a race the stable traditionally likes for some of its best juveniles and God’s Window looks sure to be given his chance in a trial.
12. SUNWAY David Menuisier (GB)
b c Galiway - Kensea (Kendargent)
Odds 33-1
As Sunway was bred in France and isn’t guaranteed to stay the Derby trip of 1m4f, it would be no surprise if David Menuisier prefers the shorter Prix du Jockey Club. On the other hand, Sunway is already aG1 winner and definitely wouldn’t be out of place at Epsom.
It was evidently love at first sight when regular rider Oisin Murphy got on him for the first time at Coombelands, so the debut win at Sandown was expected by those closest to him.
Sunway failed to fire at Ascot next time, but he took a big step back in the right direction with a tongue tie when a G2 second at Doncaster and then justified the high opinion held of him when beating the odds-on Andre Fabre-trained colt Alcantor in the one-mile Criterium International at Saint-Cloud, which was run on very soft ground.
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