With top-level racing on three continents, last weekend’s action produced a major shake-up in the upper reaches of Thoroughbred Racing Commentary’s Global Rankings for horses.
Nowhere was this more evident than Dubai, where Meydan’s richly endowed World Cup card produced some astonishing performances – not least in the $12 million feature, where Laurel River stepped up dramatically both in distance and all-known previous form for a startling victory under the floodlights.
Despite being drawn widest of all in the 12-runner field, the Juddmonte homebred son of Into Mischief was always prominent before slipping the field at the home turn and went further and further away from his rivals in a scarcely credible 8½-length drubbing.
As a result, Laurel River gatecrashes the world Top Five, coming from virtually nowhere to take the #5 spot (from #196) with a massive 516pt boost to his portfolio.
Left toiling in his wake in a private battle for minor honours were Saudi Cup principals Ushba Tesoro – the 2022 Dubai winner – and Senor Buscador; this time the Japanese contender came off best of the late-running pair, who both produced creditable efforts.
Laurel River is a lightly-raced six-year-old who has now won six of only ten career starts – none of which had ever come at more than a mile. His connections had toyed with running him in the Godolphin Mile earlier on the World Cup card before going for broke in the feature.
“I’m still coming to terms with what’s happened,” said his trainer Bhupat Seemar. “I think it’ll probably sink in in another day or two. It’s absolutely amazing. Tadhg said this morning ‘we’re drawn 12, I’m not going to be two-minded about it, I’m going to go forward.’
“He’s got so much natural pace. He comes out of the gate and this is why we ran him over six furlongs. I expected to see all the closers flying at him but he kept going.”
Laurel River was introduced into betting for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and it will be interesting to see if he can ever back up such an amazing effort – or, indeed, if he will be asked to race outside his new hometown.
On the plus side, he is no stranger to this year’s Breeders’ Cup venue Del Mar, where he has won three races, including the G2 Pat O’Brien over seven furlongs for former trainer Bob Baffert in August 2022. Intriguingly, among those beaten that day in a 3¾-length win was none other than Saudi Cup winner Senor Buscador, who finished third.
All in all, this was quite a night for Laurel River’s trainer, Bhupat Seemar (#60 from #157, +91pt), and jockey, the popular 11-time UAE champion Tadhg O’Shea (#89 from #200, +84pt). They had teamed up earlier on the card for another bravura display via ex-Russian-trained Tuz (#35 from #210, +283pt) posted a 6½-length triumph in the Dubai Golden Shaheen,
Admittedly, this did not look a vintage edition of the G1 contest but Tuz’s success was nevertheless a surprise after his down-the-field effort in Saudi Arabia on his previous outing. That said, Tuz won a G3 event by 8½ lengths over course and distance at Meydan in January. He appears to have improved by about a stone as a seven-year-old.
The Dubai Sheema Classic, the scene of Equinox’s world-leading performance 12 months ago, was billed as a match between dual Derby winner Auguste Rodin and Japan’s star filly Liberty Island.
Rebel’s Romance, however, had not read the script and the Godolphin six-year-old claimed the $6m contest, in which he benefited from a canny ride by Britain’s champion jockey William Buick, who sat close to a tepid pace and got first run on his rivals.
After losing his way in 2023, Rebel’s Romance is right back to his best, having won in Qatar on his previous start. He moves up to world #7 (from #44, +254pt), while French-trained Facteur Cheval re-enters the rankings at #25 after a hard-fought verdict from Namur in the Dubai Turf.
California Spangle (#10 from #27, +131pt) climbs into the Top Ten after becoming the first Hong Kong-trained winner in Dubai for a decade in the Al Quoz Sprint.
World #1 trainer Aidan O’Brien suffered a major reverse when Auguste Rodin (stays at #6) produced one of those unfathomable performances which are becoming something of a trademark in the Sheema Classic. When he’s good, he’s very, very good – but when he’s bad, he’s horrid.
On the other hand, Tower Of London (#82 from #309, +213pt) looked every inch a potential staying champion when adding to his Saudi laurels in the Dubai Gold Cup. Post-race comments suggested he will cut back in trip for the G2 Hardwicke Stakes over a mile and a half at Royal Ascot rather than step up in Gold Cup territory.
Kentucky Debry: Fierceness clear leader after Florida romp
Last year’s champion US juvenile Fierceness (#14 from #331, +469pt) catapulted himself into pole position for the Kentucky Derby with a record-breaking 13½-length romp in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on Saturday [March 30].
“It seems like the more times you watch it the more impressive it looks,” said trainer Todd Pletcher, speaking to the Gulfstream media team.
“We felt good about his training going into it and how his breezes were going,” added the trainer. “We were anxious to hopefully get off to a good start and get a clean run into the first turn.
“We felt really good the way he got away from the gate and the position he was able to get when he kind of took the lead turning up the backside. It looked like he got into a comfortable rhythm. I thought to myself, ‘Wow! This has gone as good as we’d hoped for.’ Being allowed to get into a rhythm and do what he’s good at was the key to his success.”
After drawing away under no semblance of pressure from John Velazquez, Fierceness reclaimed Kentucky Derby favoritism with European bookmakers, who make him a best-priced 4-1 for the for the first Saturday in May.
“From a talent perspective, he has it all,” said Pletcher. “Like everyone else in the Derby, you’ve got to hope you draw a good post, you get a good trip, and you like Churchill Downs – all those things.”
The overriding worry for Fierceness supporters is that consistency in hardly his watchword, given that he is prone to the odd clunker amid rather more impressive displays.
On the plus side, this surely won’t be the most exalted Kentucky Derby in history with Bob Baffert’s horses banned. As if to emphasis the point, Breeders’ Cup runner-up Muth (#21 from #84, +245pt) ran out a comfortable two-length winner in the Arkansas Derby.
One potential fly in the ointment for Fierceness is Japanese-trained Forever Young (#46 from #118, +135pt), who took his unbeaten record to five in the UAE Derby. While this was probably not a stellar collection of dirt three-year-olds – and the UAE Derby is no guide for Churchill Downs – his jockey was ultra-confident, giving the outside lane to no-one before Forever Young stamped his authority in the stretch for a convincing victory against some overmatched opponents.
Cascadian upstages Aussie stars
There were further significant rankings movements elsewhere, notably in Australia, where Cascadian (#26 from #74, +174pt) entered the Top 30 after upstaging higher-profile rivals in a highly competitive Australian Cup at Flemington.
Fresh from victory against her male counterparts in the New Zealand Derby, star Kiwi filly Orchestral (#37 from #168, +227pt) continued on her winning ways across the Tasman Sea in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes at Rosehill. Expect more notable movers from Australia in the next couple of weeks at Sydney’s two-day Championships meeting at Randwick on April 6 and 13.
In Japan, Bellagio Opera (#29 from #78, +171pt) claimed his first G1 success in the Osaka Hai at Hanshin.
• Unlike traditional methods of racehorse rankings, TRC Global Rankings are a measure of an individual’s level of achievement over a rolling three-year period, providing a principled hierarchy of the leading horses, jockeys, trainers, owners and sires using statistical learning techniques. Racehorse rankings can be compared to similar exercises in other sports, like the golf’s world rankings or the ATP rankings in tennis.
They are formulated from the last three years of races we consider Group or Graded class all over the world and update automatically each week according to the quality of a horse’s performances and their recency, taking into account how races work out.
• View the latest TRC Global Rankings for horses / jockeys / trainers / sires
World rankings shake-up as Hong Kong superstar Golden Sixty reaches summit for the third time
World rankings update: ‘Frankie is incredible’ – Baffert and Dettori dominant at Santa Anita