All the race replays for 19 Group races – plus the stunning Bedtime Story – at Britain’s foremost fixture as rankings expert James Willoughby offers a bite-sized ratings-based analysis of the action
Royal Ascot was a little short on international challengers for the latest iteration of what is long established as one of the best meetings in the world. Nevertheless, a fast and consistent racing surface led to exciting racing throughout the five days.
On the whole, established Group-race stars stood up to lightly raced improvers, leading to satisfactory predictive performance from Thoroughbred Racing Commentary’s Global Rankings.
This is very much the ambition of the algorithm, despite deliberately using only a fraction of the information available to other rating systems, so as to maintain a transparent and authentic world rankings system.
In total, nine of the 19 Group races fell to the highest-ranked horse. (That figure moves to eight from 15 – or 53% – if the four two-year-old Group races are discounted as clearly there is rather to inform the algorithm in such cases.)
Here is a list of those winners with their SPs:
Asfoora 5-1 King Charles III Stakes G1
Rosallion 5-2 St James’s Palace Stakes G1
Illinois 7-4 Queen’s Vase G2
Auguste Rodin 13-8 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes G1
Kyprios 11-10 Gold Cup G1
Calandagan 11-2 King Edward VII Stakes G2
Fairy Godmother 15-8 Albany Stakes G3
Inisherin 9-4 Commonwealth Cup G1
Haatem 7-2 Jersey Stakes G3
A plethora of notable movers on the Thoroughbred Racehorse Commentary’s Global Rankings were headed by Prince of Wales’s Stakes winner Auguste Rodin (#2 from #11, +177pt), while Kyprios and Rosallion also enter the Top Ten. Hong Kong star Romantic Warrior keeps his #1 status for a ninth week.
See below for full details of TRC Computer Race Ratings and significant rankings movers from each of Royal Ascot’s Group races.
TUESDAY
Queen Anne Stakes G1 1m, 4yo+
1 Charyn 121 #43 (from #177, +219pt)
2 Docklands 113 #1019
3 Maljoom 107 #1178
4 Witch Hunter 105 #847
Analysis: A lesser renewal in which Charyn won his first G1 at the sixth attempt. Big Rock (#40 from #30) was the highest-ranked horse entering the race, but disappointed for the second time in 2024, both on fast ground. Audience (#88 from #67) and Facetur Cheval (#69 from #60), both G1 winners this year, did little to help their rankings status in fifth and sixth.
Coventry Stakes G2 6f, 2yo
1 Rashabar 111 #391
2 Electrolyte 111 #1104
3 Columnist 110 #1506
4 Cool Hoof Luke 109 #1176
Analysis: A huge field of 22 but only an ordinary renewal, judged by the tight margins – the first eight separated by a total of just a couple of lengths, albeit spread across the track. Wathnan Racing provided the second and third here; massive pre-Ascot spending was to result in four winners altogether at the meeting (three Group contests and a handicap). The Emir of Qatar’s rising force re-enter the owners’ rankings at #156.
King Charles III Stakes G1 5f, 3yo+
1 Asfoora 119 #38 (from #127, +181pt)
2 Regional 115 #256 (from #358)
3 Big Evs 113 #239 (from #283)
4 Believing 113 #848 (from #964)
Analysis: European sprinting is not strong, and Asfoora brought by far the highest TRC Global Ranking into the former King’s Stand Stakes from Australia and scored readily at 5-1. Breeders’ Cup winner Big Evs showed he has trained on in a race which is tough for three-year-olds. He wasn’t far away in third after making the running and coming home in the front of the group on his side of the track.
St James’s Palace Stakes G1 1m, 3yo
1 Rosallion 121 #10 (from #38, +162pt)
2 Henry Longfellow 120 #97 (from #168)
3 Metropolitan 110 #229 (from #268)
4 Unquestionable 107 #425 (from #412)
Analysis: Irish Guineas winner Rosallion is making into an outstanding horse. He was preferred to the winner of the English equivalent Notable Speech (#89 from #62) by TRC Global Rankings because his form was more reliable. The latter started favourite at 6-4 with the winner at 5-2; backers may never get that price or more again about Rosallion, who is a potential world #1. HenryLongfellow now has two TRC Computer Race Ratings of 120 and should win a second G1 in the near future.
WEDNESDAY
Queen Mary Stakes G2 5f, 2yo fillies
1 Leovanni 111 #388
2 Mighty Eriu 106 #1416
3 Maw Lam 106 #1733
4 Miss Lamai 105 #1987
Analysis: One of the lowest-rated Queen Mary Stakes, despite a huge field of 24. Leovanni won well, but much better fillies than those behind await her in future races.
Queen’s Vase G2 1m6f, 3yo
1 Illinois 115 (from #1542, +344pt)
2 Highbury 112 #1068
3 Birdman 110 #1508
4 Meydaan 103
Analysis: A lightly raced, late-developing field, though it remains to be seen what kind of impact these can make in future Group races. Illinois was the only runner to have previously earned a TRC Global Ranking and justified 7-4 favouritism.
Duke of Cambridge Stakes G2 1m, 4yo+ f/m
1 Running Lion 112 #308 (from #1067, +226pt)
2 Laurel 107 #1243
3 Doom 103 #1648
4 Magical Sunset 103 #1074
Analysis: Scarce top-level form available here, and last-up G2 winner Ocean Jewel was the highest-ranked horse at #263 (now #277), but she disappointed badly on her second run in 24 days after a 260-day absence; she does not stand much racing. Running Lion got a dashing ride from the front by Oisin Murphy who moved up to #34 in the jockeys’ rankings after a good week.
Prince of Wales’s Stakes G1 1m2f, 4yo+
1 Auguste Rodin 123 #2 (from #11, +177pt)
2 Zarakem 119 #198
3 Horizon Dore 115 #134
4 Alflaila 110 #505
Analysis: Two horses dominated on TRC Global Rankings but Inspiral (#21 from #16) disappointed again and the highest-ranked horse Auguste Rodin scored at 13-8 to bolster an impressive portfolio. His six G1 wins also include two Derbys, the Irish Champion Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup Turf. He is well worthy of a place as #2 in the world overall, even though strictly speaking he does not seem quite as good as last year, according to TRC Computer Race Ratings. Dual French Classic winner Blue Rose Cen continues to disappoint (#92 from #81) for her new trainer.
THURSDAY
Norfolk Stakes G2 5f, 2yo
1 Shareholder 110 #461
2 Tropical Storm 107 #1352
3 Arizona Blaze 106 #926
4 Whistlejacket 106 #1920
Analysis: Only one horse had a ranking, but G3 Marble Hill Stakes winner Arizona Blaze was unfancied at 14-1. He ran a great race in third, however, as Wathnan Racing’s Shareholder added a second Royal Ascot 2024 Group win for trainer Karl Burke (#27 from #36, +53pt), who also saddled Leovanni to win the Queen Mary.
Ribblesdale Stakes G2 1m4f, 3yo fillies
1 Port Fairy 113 #333
2 Lava Stream 113 #1006
3 Kalpana 109 #1558
4 You Got To Me 108 #1276
Analysis: Strangely, only one horse carried a TRC Global Ranking into this race, but You Got To Me (#1276 from #1180) could not sustain a torrid pace and faded to fourth. Port Fairy battled home in workmanlike fashion.
Gold Cup G1 2m4f, 4yo+
1 Kyprios 121 #9 (from #33, +171pt)
2 Trawlerman 118 #241
3 Sweet William 110 #170
4 Vauban 106 #651
Analysis: A second Gold Cup for dominant stayer Kyprios who enters the world’s Top 10 with his seventh Group win, further extending his lead in the TRC Global Rankings over any other marathon runner on turf. He emerged decisively after a skirmish with the runner-up to justify strong backing at 11-10. It was a great week for his trainer Aidan O’Brien (#2 from #3, +108pt) who gained no fewer than 108 ranking points and is poised to regain his lead in the trainer rankings from Charlie Appleby (stays at #1, -27pt), who never hit the board. Jockey Ryan Moore (#2 from #3, +58pt) gave the son of Galileo (#5 from #7, +50pt, in overall sires) a masterful ride.
Hampton Court Stakes G3 1m2f, 3yo
1 Jayarebe 111 #443
2 King’s Gambit 109 #1220
3 Bellum Justum 105 #1204
4 First Look 102 #846
Analysis: Prix du Jockey Club second First Look (#846 from #748) was the highest-ranked runner and figured to hold a good chance, but he seemed uncomfortable on the fastest ground so far encountered. Jayarebe was a clear-cut winner in Listed company at Newmarket in April and moved up to beat the unlucky King’s Gambit, who looks booked to win a Group race. Strong form.
FRIDAY
Albany Stakes G3 6f, 2yo fillies
1 Fairy Godmother 110 #368 (from #959, +179pt)
2 Simmering 108 #1281
3 Heavens Gate 108 #1605
4 Mountain Breeze 103
Analysis: Winner of a G3 at Naas, Fairy Godmother was the sole runner with a TRC Global Ranking and did well to justify favouritism at 15-8 after being set a bit to do. She looks sure to continue to be a force in this division – but as impressive as she was, her performance wasn’t as startling as her Ballydoyle stablemate Bedtime Story, who scored by 9½ lengths over 14 rivals in the Chesham Stakes, a Listed race over seven furlongs for two-year-olds on Saturday’s card. The daughter of world #1 sire Frankel is ante-post favourite for next year’s 1,000 Guineas.
Commonwealth Cup G1 6f, 3yo
1 Inisherin 121 #18 (from #212, +337pt)
2 Lake Forest 112 #563
3 Jasour 111 #235
4 Kind Of Blue 107 #1855
Analysis: One of the most impressive winners of the week, the highest-rated runner by TRC Global Rankings won readily at 9-4, storming ahead approaching the final furlong. He should start odds-on for the July Cup, based on the level of British sprinting G1s and his own imperious position within the division at #18 overall in the world.
Coronation Stakes G1 1m, 3yo fillies
1 Porta Fortuna 120 #60 (from #224, +215pt)
2 Opera Singer 117 #174
3 Ramatuelle 113 #143
4 Elmalka 110 #178
Analysis: One of the best and most strongly contested races of the week. Porta Fortuna was always going well behind the leaders and quickened smartly to take command. Opera Singer is returning to the form which saw her an impressive G1 winner as a juvenile. Ramatuelle, the top-ranked horse, ran another really good race and reversed 1,000 Guineas form from Newmarket with Elmalka, as their respective rankings suggested.
King Edward VII Stakes G2 1m4f, 3yo
1 Calandagan 118 #50 (from #234, +244pt)
2 Space Legend 106 #1415
3 Royal Supremacy 104 #1697
4 Mondo Man 103 #1728
Analysis: A strong pace provided a platform for one horse to elevate himself above the strictly average field. That was French-trained gelding Calandagan – clearly the top-ranked horse on TRC Global Rankings – who swept through from the rear and hacked up at 11-2. He joins the global top 50.
SATURDAY
Hardwicke Stakes G2 1m4f, 4yo+
1 Isle Of Jura 116 #162
2 Goliath 107 #447
3 Middle Earth 106 #452
4 Candleford 104 #1364
Analysis: The top-ranked horse, by dint of having run this season, was ex-British Missed The Cut who had won a pair of G3 at Santa Anita this spring for new trainer, John Sadler. He ran poorly. Continuous was the best horse on form but excluded from the rankings on account of making his seasonal reappearance; sure enough, he needed the run. Isle Of Jura is massively improved and took another step forward.
Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes G1 6f, 4yo+
1 Khaadem 114 #158 (from #620, +225pt)
2 Swingalong 112 #491
3 Mill Stream 107 #195
4 Believing 103 #848
Analysis: Top-ranked horse was six-time Group winner Art Power (#140 from #126) but the fast ground caught him out again and he was 12th for the second straight year. Khaadem has no such problems and followed up his 2023 success at the age of eight but this was one of the weakest G1 races run in Britain for some time.
Jersey Stakes G3 7f, 3yo
1 Haatem 114#85 (from #161, +119pt)
2 Kikkuli 114 #961
3 Chicago Critic 111 #1527
4 Mountain Bear 108 #1348
Analysis: Tough, genuine and easily the highest-ranked horse in the race, Haatem overcame the drop back in trip to win at 7-2. Strictly speaking, though, he did not match his best form over a mile. Kikkuli, Frankel’s half-brother, just lost out in the photo and is getting better with every start.
View the latest TRC Global Rankings for horses / jockeys / trainers / sires
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