British racing’s midsummer showpiece, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes, produced a surprise winner – and one of the most dramatic moves in the history of Thoroughbred Racing Commentary’s Global Rankings.
French-trained Goliath was sent off a 25-1 shot before improving on all-known form to power home for an emphatic 2¼-length score over a star-studded field at Ascot on Saturday [July 28].
As a result, the German-bred gelding earned a guaranteed start in the Breeders’ Cup Turf as part of the annual ‘Win and You’re In’ Challenge – and he rocketed into the Top 3 on the rankings, where he now stands at #3 (from #462) after a mammoth 595pt boost.
Carrying the silks of Baron Philip von Ullmann, Goliath is a four-year-old son of Adlerflug (#15 from #20 among turf sires, +55pt), who won the German Derby in 2007.
He had won only one of his previous five starts, and that only a G3 event at ParisLongchamp in May before a decent second-placed effort in the G2 Hardwicke at Royal Ascot.
However, Ballydoyle’s team tactics ensured a fierce pace ensued, thereby playing to Goliath’s strengths – and in the end, did little to aid their own chief contender, the mercurial Auguste Rodin.
But as the Aidan O’Brien battalion spiked their own guns up front, Goliath was sitting chilly towards the rear before making smooth headway in the straight, travelling effortlessly to the front over a furlong out before drawing away to win decisively from leading filly Bluestocking (#16 from #23, +53pt).
Indeed, Goliath won so easily that jockey Christophe Soumillon (#40 from #43, +25pt) was able to celebrate before the line.
"When I saw the 25-1, I was like 'Oh my God, nobody believes in him,’” admitted trainer Francis Graffard (#58 from #92, +46pt).
“He travelled so nicely though and when he was like that, I knew he'd be able to quicken strongly.
“I knew my horse, with a good pace, could quicken like this. We came to Ascot to find a strong pace and still at Royal Ascot he was too keen, so I was really hoping for some pace here.”
Godolphin globetrotter Rebel’s Romance (stays at #4, -7pt) did best of those who raced closer to the hot pace in third, but Auguste Rodin dropped out to fifth, leaving his trainer mithering that the ground was not as fast as the official description of ‘good to firm’ suggested.
Either way, the dual Derby winner’s record remains a mixed bag. Six G1 wins including two Derbys, a Breeders’ Cup and Irish Champion Stakes – and top-level successes at two, three and four – attest to an enormous talent. But these clunkers just keep on coming, and Auguste Rodin plummets down the charts (#10 from #2, -125pt).
On the other side of the Atlantic, the profile of Fierceness (#18 from #64, +124pt) isn’t a million miles away from his being labelled a dirt version of Auguste Rodin.
Last year’s champion juvenile was on his best behaviour in the G2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga, where he raced prominently throughout before a one-length victory over Kentucky Derby runner-up Sierra Leone.
Godophin’s Silver Knott (#71 from #125, +80pt) continues to make hay in Stateside marathons and duly completed a G2 hat-trick with a comfortable success in the Bowling Green.
Del Mar played host to a blockbuster performance from hugely popular sprinter The Chosen Vron, who slammed a decent field to complete back-to-back successes in the G1 Bing Crosby.
The six-year-old, whose ultimate target is the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, has won 19 of 24 career starts, including all five in 2024 and 14 of his last 15. The Chosen Vron re-enters the rankings at #26.
The Andre Fabre-trained mare Mqse De Sevigne (#59 from #124, +105pt) also defended a G1 title, repeating her 2023 victory in the Prix Rothschild at Deauville. She is also unbeaten in three this year, and hasn’t finished worse than second in nine starts since her three-year-old days.
As a four-time G1 winner, an argument could be constructed that she is a little undervalued by the TRC algorithm and deserves higher rank, although her G1s are seldom the most competitive for the grade.
• Unlike traditional methods of racehorse rankings, TRC Global Rankings are a measure of an individual’s level of achievement over a rolling three-year period, providing a principled hierarchy of the leading horses, jockeys, trainers, owners and sires using statistical learning techniques. Racehorse rankings can be compared to similar exercises in other sports, like the golf’s world rankings or the ATP rankings in tennis.
They are formulated from the last three years of races we consider Group or Graded class all over the world and update automatically each week according to the quality of a horse’s performances and their recency, taking into account how races work out.
View the latest TRC Global Rankings for horses / jockeys / trainers / sires
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