A team of experts on US racing, headed by legendary former jockey Jerry Bailey, have their say on whether the European superstar can succeed in the Coolmore team’s ambitious challenge for America’s richest race
One of the most contentious questions – probably the most contentious – in the run-up to the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar is the one about whether Irish superstar colt City Of Troy can overcome the culture shock of a switch to dirt and a deep cast of rivals to win the showpiece $7m Classic.
We asked a team of experts for their views on the subject. Here’s what they had to say in a debate that is sure to continue until post-time on November 2.
‘I’ve got him top of my list’
Jerry Bailey NBC Sports
His sire Justify certainly brings that dirt angle, and from what I’ve seen City Of Troy has the high cruising speed that is required. It’s not an accident, an afterthought, that he’s here – Aidan O’Brien and his owners have clearly had this on their mind for a good while.
But it remains a fact that European horses don’t have the same speed from the gate as the locals. Here, I’ll defer to Aidan, because he has prepared the horse as carefully as possible, trialling him out of a US-style starting gate on an artificial surface.
On the day, post position could be a factor. You don’t want to get trapped on the rail, and a particular element to Del Mar is the shortness of the home stretch, which can make it difficult for deep closers to be effective.
There are no standout older horses, but the three-year-olds are strong, including Japanese runner Forever Young – who should probably have won the Kentucky Derby – and Travers winner Fierceness. The thing about Fierceness is that he’s had two perfect trips for his last two wins, and if he doesn’t get things the way he likes them he could find himself up against it.
It will be a huge advantage if City Of Troy gets away clean, so he can run his race. I think he has the best chance of any European horse that’s ever come over for the Classic – I’ve got him top of my list.
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‘Any slight hesitation and he is facing a wall of kickback’
Rachel Candelora Racing TV
In a word? No.
City Of Troy’s best runstyle is arguably from the front, where he appears to travel more sweetly. However, there is a noted difference between European gate speed and American gate speed, particularly on dirt.
In his Southwell exercise gallop it looked like he was struggling early on to lay up with his much inferior stablemates. Any slight hesitation on his part and he is facing a wall of real dirt kickback.
In both the previous Classics run at Del Mar – typically a speed-favouring racetrack, especially when the tide is low – the winners Knicks Go (2021) and Gun Runner (2017) made all the running. I just can’t see City Of Troy in front as they hit the first turn.
If he does have to take back early there are only 306⅓ yards from the top of the stretch to the wire, less than a furlong and a half in which he gets the chance to make a run, and in his races this year where he has come from a bit further back it has taken him some time to hit top gear At Del Mar, he doesn’t get that time.
I have seen several of the Classic contenders up close and I was surprised by how physically small City Of Troy is. He is well-made and all compact muscle, but some of his rivals, the likes of Ushba Tesoro and Saudi Cup winner Senor Buscador, are much bigger than him and that turn in and stretch run can get rough.
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‘He must be considered a sound favorite’
Brad Free Daily Racing Form
I am reluctant to endorse a Breeders’ Cup candidate this far ahead, but at the time of writing City Of Troy must be considered a sound favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The reasons are apparent.
City Of Troy is world class; he scored back-to-back G1 wins against older rivals on turf. He is bred for any surface; Justify progeny can handle both dirt and turf. He also looked good in his all-weather ‘trial’ earlier this month.
In addition to his attributes, one must consider his likely competition in the Classic. This year, the US handicap division is not particularly strong. The older horses take turns beating each other; the top three-year-olds – Fierceness, Sierra Leone – have yet to race outside their division.
Of course, the challenges are daunting. City Of Troy must travel from Europe, race on dirt for the first time, and cope with a dirt pace likely to be quicker than any he has faced on turf.
I cannot state that he will win the Classic, but he certainly looks the proper favorite.
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‘He has the raw ability’
Nick Luck NBC, Racing TV
Yes, I think so. Of course you have to take his ability to handle the surface on trust – he’s not physically built like a dirt horse but his style of running gives hope. He has that relentlessness, that heart you need to do well on dirt.
As long as he can get a reasonable position early, he has an awful lot in his favour. To begin with, he is the most able in the race. Horses who might have been his main rivals aren’t running for one reason or another – Thorpedo Anna, Dornoch – and unless Fierceness can produce his best effort yet, City Of Troy’s rivals are closely matched and probably no more than average for the division.
On one hand it’s a good year to try, there’s no standout; on the other hand that means there’ll probably be a big field and he’ll need luck. But he’s brave, he can sustain a very high cruising speed, he races the right way tactically and has the raw ability. Yes, City Of Troy can win.
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‘The gates are open for City Of Troy’
Tom Pedulla America’s Best Racing
I like City Of Troy’s chances to win the Classic because I do not think the American contingent is particularly strong.
I would argue that the best horse in the US, Thorpedo Anna, is running in the Distaff. Fierceness, who barely withstood her rally in the Travers, had not registered consecutive victories before that.
Whitney winner Arthur’s Ride succumbed in a speed duel with Highland Falls in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and Highland Falls was not a G1 winner before that, while Kentucky Derby runner-up Sierra Leone never seems to get there. It seems to me that the gates are open for the City Of Troy.
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‘It’s highly unlikely he will be a fair price’
Andy Serling New York Racing Association
Will he win? Probably not. Even if you agree that 5-2 is a fair price, you are saying he’s roughly 30 per cent to win, which makes him more likely than not to lose.
To me, the question is whether you think he is a good bet. I think it’s highly unlikely he will be a fair price. He’s obviously extremely talented, maybe more talented than this year’s flawed group in the US, but we have no idea if his talents will extend to dirt.
While it’s all upside for Coolmore, with little downside if he isn’t successful, it’s a different story entirely for bettors.
I suppose some might say, perhaps fairly, if he handles the dirt he’s very likely better than this year’s best US horses, although I doubt it’s as simple as that. Betting the horses is rarely that easy.
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‘I just can’t see him defeating the best dirt horses’
Steve Sherack Thoroughbred Daily News
With a pedigree that screams grass despite being by Triple Crown winner Justify, I just can’t see City Of Troy defeating the best dirt horses from America, or even Japan.
However, I really do love that Aidan O’Brien and the Coolmore team are giving the Classic another shot, especially in a year where there isn’t exactly a Flightline in opposition.
After coming so painfully close with Giant’s Causeway and Declaration Of War, there’s no doubt that they’ll pull this off at some point, but I think they’re going to have to wait at least another year.
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