In the first segment of his two-part Breeders’ Cup analysis, Graham Dench casts his expert eye over the European challenge for Friday’s juvenile races
The Breeders’ Cup returns for a third time in eight years to Del Mar, famously known as the place ‘where the turf meets the surf’. The two-day extravaganza will be back there next year too.
While questions over travel and climate are perhaps not as pertinent as they once were, the configuration of the Southern California venue raises a potential concern for any European travellers, given that the turf circuit in particular is tight, even by the standards of major US tracks, with a short straight.
As John Gosden explaiend recently: “The draw is very important at Del Mar – if you start getting high draws, and double numbers, things start getting quite complicated.”
Nevertheless, when the Breeders’ Cup was first staged at Del Mar in 2017, Aidan O’Brien won the Juvenile Turf with Mendelssohn and the Juvenile Turf Sprint (then only Listed) with Declarationofpeace. Charlie Appleby took the Filly & Mare Turf with Wuheida, and Andre Fabre sprang a surprise with Talismanic in the Turf, in which the O’Brien hotpot Highland Reel was only third.
Four years later there was frustration for the Europeans on the Friday when Go Bears Go and Malavath both finished a close second, but Saturday went rather better, with Appleby and William Buick enjoying a memorable treble with Modern Games, Space Blues and Yibir,
That 2021 meet, of course, was the one at which Japanese runners made history with their historic double courtesy of Loves Only You and Marche Lorraine. That nation’s confidence is signalled this time with their biggest-ever team, not far short of Europe in terms of firepower.
However, this analysis is concerned with the European team, led as usual by Aidan O’Brien’s Ballydoyle battalion with 10 runner; it was 11 until Ylang Ylang was scratched by the vets.
Though they are headed by much-vaunted Derby winner City Of Troy’s attempt to give Ballydoyle a breakthrough first win in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic, O’Brien’s most obvious chance has to be Lake Victoria, sure to be one of the meeting’s hottest favourites when she defends her unbeaten record in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.
Charlie Appleby, who has a remarkable 50% strike rate at the Breeders’ Cup, has a typically strong team too, and his eight runners include Notable Speech, bidding to give the stable a remarkable fourth successive win in the Mile. Cinderella’s Dream and Rebel’s Romance could also start favourite in their respective races.
The French challenge will be minimal this time, but Christopher Head will be hoping for an emotional win with Ramatuelle in the Mile, a race his father Freddy won twice as a jockey on Miesque and three times as a trainer with Goldikova.
Star turn
BIG MOJO represents the same trainer, owner and rider as last year’s winner Big Evs, and although he has not had such a busy programme he has taken in two of the same main races, beating Aesterius by just under a length in the G2 Molecomb Stakes over 5f at Goodwood and more recently going down by a neck to the same colt in the G2 Flying Childers (over 5f at Doncaster), where Magnum Force was third. There’s clearly little between the two principals, and they are drawn side-by-side on the inside, but slight preference is for Big Mojo, who has had the lighter campaign and arguably has room for a little more improvement.
Support team
Aidan O’Brien saddles two solid candidates. Whistlejacket is already a winner at G1 level over 6f in Deauville’s Prix Morny, where Royal Ascot winner Shareholder failed to run his race and lost his unbeaten record. He was no match at all for Godolphin’s Shadow Of Light when odds on in a G1 event over 6f at Newmarket last time, but it looks significant that he is nevertheless the choice of Ryan Moore. Frankie Dettori is booked for stablemate Ides Of March, who needs to take another step forward but has improved significantly with every race and was a comfortable G3 winner over 6f at the Curragh last time. Arizona Blaze has had a busy time but ran well in defeat when dropped back to 5f on Polytrack last time. It’s asking a lot at this level, though.
Star turn
The unbeaten LAKE VICTORIA is a standout. Aidan O’Brien took this for the first time two years ago when Meditate overcame a wide draw and won easily at Keeneland, and Lake Victoria arrives with even stronger credentials. Whereas Meditate was second in her previous G1s, over 7f at the Curragh and then 6f Newmarket, Lake Victoria won them both decisively. She showed an enviable change of gear when a three-length winner at Newmarket, yet with Frankel as her sire there should be no concerns about her staying 1m.
Support team
O’Brien also saddles last month’s Curragh winner Heavens Gate, who once again encounters neck runner-up Fiery Lucy. The latter had to wait for a run that day but was then always being held. Anshoda is a G3 winner over 7f but was disappointing last time. None of them looks in the same class as the favourite.
A five-length winner of a Leopardstown maiden, Hill Road made no show in the G1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (Ireland’s top 2yo race) over 7f next time and beat only one home. The Juvenile Turf would have been his preferred target but he didn’t get in. The dirt, therefore, is also a question mark but he is US-bred by Quality Road (out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare), so at least there are grounds for optimism on that score.
Star turn
NEW CENTURY earned his place here by winning the G1 Summer Stakes over 1m at Woodbine, which is part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge. While there’s not that much between all of the Europeans here, he has improved with every race and comes here at the top of his form. A first Breeders’ Cup winner is very much an ambition for both trainer Andrew Balding and the colt’s owner-breeder Sheikh Fahad of Qatar Racing, and the Kameko colt looks the part if he can overcome the wide draw. Crucially, he looks very much at home on fast ground.
Support team
Al Qudra beat New Century twice earlier in the season, but he appeared to be beaten fair and square at Woodbine and his form now seems to have levelled off. Charlie Appleby, a three-time winner of the Juvenile Turf, also saddles Goodwood G2 winner Aomori City, who is the choice of William Buick and looks ready for this extra furlong after finishing behind both Henri Matisse and Seagulls Eleven in the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes over 7f at the Curragh. Henri Matisse is a dual G2 winner and represents six-time Juvenile Turf winner Aidan O’Brien. The blinkers he was tried in last time at Longchamp, where the ground was probably against him, are retained here. Seagulls Eleven is joined by a stablemate The Waco Kid, whose G3 win over 7f came on soft ground at Newmarket last month.
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