In the second segment of his two-part Breeders’ Cup analysis, Graham Dench assesses the European challenge – headed by City Of Troy
BREEDERS’ CUP FRIDAY: READ GRAHAM DENCH’S ANALYSIS
European challengers Frost At Dawn and Pandora’s Gift both look out of their depth.
Star turn
BRADSELL, a Royal Ascot winner at two and three,was a late scratching at Santa Anita 12 months ago but has returned from injury better than ever at four, adding further G1 wins in the Nunthorpe at York and the Flying Five at the Curragh. He can be excused his Prix de l’Abbaye defeat, where underfoot conditions were against him. He has to overcome the outside draw, but he is currently Europe’s best sprinter and a proper 5f specialist.
Support team
Believing chased home Bradsell both at York (Starlust third, Big Mojo a disappointing eighth) and the Curragh; with her inside draw and Ryan Moore’s assistance, plenty will fancy her to reverse the placings. Big Mojo crowned a fantastic 2yo campaign with success at Santa Anita in the Juvenile Turf Sprint last year and his G2 defeat of Australian Royal Ascot winner Asfoora at Goodwood would give him every chance. Star Of Mystery needs more but did well at Meydan at the start of the year and has the advantage of having raced three times against US turf sprinters since, finishing well when second in a G2 at Keeneland last time.
Star turn
REBEL’S ROMANCE was an easy winner of the Turf at Keeneland in 2022 and, following a quieter 2023, he has returned better than ever, taking his tally at the highest level to six with further success in Dubai (over an international field in the G1 Sheema Classic), Hong Kong and Germany, and his career record to an impressive 14 from 21. Post 11 presents a challenge, but he is one of the most extensively travelled Thoroughbreds in the sport and nothing seems to faze him.
Support team
John Gosden threw a curveball when he switched Emily Upjohn here from the Filly & Mare Turf, reasoning that the Del Mar configuration over a mile and a half would suit her better. She’s yet to win this year, but her placings behind subsequent Arc winner Bluestocking in the Pretty Polly and the Prix Vermeille look very much better now. Her reunion with old ally Frankie Dettori is tough on Kieran Shoemark but hardly a negative. Luxembourg was winning his fourth G1 when successful in the Coronation Cup at Epsom in June (Emily Upjohn disappointing fourth) but his form has levelled off. On the other hand stablemate Wingspan, though yet to win at better than Listed level, is still improving and was a G1 second at Ascot last time. Jayarebe merits every respect as he bids to give Brian Meehan a third win in this race following Red Rocks (2006) and Dangerous Midge (2010). A G3 winner at Royal Ascot and a G2 winner at Longchamp, he wouldn’t need to improve much for the extra two furlongs here.
Star turn
Star turn of the whole meeting, perhaps. Certainly the headline attraction, whatever happens. CITY OF TROY has had this on his agenda pretty much all year provided all went well in the British Classics, and although the 2000 Guineas was a disaster his subsequent wins in the Derby, the Coral-Eclipse and most of all the Juddmonte International confirm him a middle-distance colt of the highest class. A racecourse gallop with far-inferior stablemates on Tapeta (synthetic) at Southwell told us little yet delighted all concerned, and hopes are high. However racing on dirt against US and Japanese specialists on the surface represents a very different challenge, and Aidan O’Brien has been here many times before without winning. Giant’s Causeway was beaten just a neck by Tiznow in 2000 and Declaration of War was a desperately close third in 2013, but stable greats including Galileo, Hawk Wing, So You Think, Gleneagles and Churchill all finished no closer than sixth. He's favourite, and he has the talent to succeed if the cards fall right for him and he can handle the kickback, but shock winner Arcangues and Raven’s Pass (on synthetics) aside the Classic has always proved out of reach for even the very best Europeans. As exciting as City Of Troy’s presence here undoubtedly is, at such short odds he can't be recommended as a win bet.
Star turn
CINDERELLA’S DREAM was a little disappointing in the 1,000 Guineas, but that’s her only defeat in seven starts. She’s a hold-up filly, so will need luck in running, but she has an impressive change of gear and was a stylish winner twice in Dubai previously and on firm ground in the US twice since, in both the G1 Belmont Oaks and the G2 Saratoga Oaks. She has been kept fresh for this since August and provided she stays the longer distance she could have too much speed for the rest.
Support team
A sound surface seems crucial to the Aidan O’Brien-trained Content, who has disappointed on soft ground on her last two starts but would be in the mix on her Irish Oaks second and Yorkshire Oaks win. Following the vet’s scratch of stablemate Ylang Ylang, Ryan Moore is likely to switch. Soprano was a G1 second at Keeneland last time, but she was beaten six lengths and would need to improve significantly, as would Beautiful Love, a G3 winner and a stablemate of Cinderella’s Dream.
Star turn
William Buick and Charlie Appleby bid for a remarkable fourth successive win here following Space Blues, Modern Games and Master Of The Seas, and they have another strong candidate in NOTABLE SPEECH, who showed a devastating turn of foot in the 2,000 Guineas and then impressed again in the Sussex Stakes. Admittedly, he comes with risks attached, as he didn’t look the same horse at Royal Ascot or Longchamp, but soft ground was a legitimate excuse on the latter track and a reproduction of his best efforts would make him hard to beat.
Support team
Europe has a particularly strong support team headed by Donnacha O’Brien’s four-time G1 winner Porta Fortuna, most recently successful in Leopardstown’s Matron Stakes, and Ramatuelle, who was in front too soon when finishing just behind her in the 1,000 Guineas. Ramatuelle showed what she was capable of when quickening right away from a smart field in the seven-furlong Prix de la Foret and she represents Christopher Head, whose father Freddy enjoyed two wins in the Mile as a rider on the great Miesque and three more as a trainer with Goldikova. Aidan O’Brien saddled the first three in 2020 but his overall record in the Mile is unimpressive. He is represented by Diego Velazquez, who has looked much improved since dropping back to around 1m and was a good G2 winner at Leopardstown last month.
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The big Breeders’ Cup question: can City Of Troy win the Classic on the dirt?
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