‘Yours truly sees him as a live Kentucky Derby contender’ – Geir Stabell with ten US horses to follow for 2025

Kentucky candidate: Bullard (Umberto Rispoli) wins the G3 Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar last month. Photo: Benoit

From some obvious top-class performers to potential dark horses, international ratings expert Geir Stabell names ten US-based horses he expects to leave their mark in 2025

ACCURACY Michael McCarthy (trainer)

3f Arrogate - Bickersons

This three-year-old filly produced a couple of stunning performances in the fall, winning a maiden by 15 lengths at Santa Anita and an allowance heat by 7¼ lengths at Del Mar, despite looking a bit immature. It’s hard to say what she beat in these mile races but it’s not difficult to imagine her making short work of much better rivals in the future. Her dam won the G2 Forward Gal and was also second in the G1 Spinaway.

BOOK’EM Bret Calhoun

2f Tiz The Law - Flummoxed 

Has already produced stakes quality form when completing a hat-trick at Churchill Downs with an 11-length victory in an allowance heat over a mile in November. Making all, she quickened away coming into the straight and drew off to humiliate rivals who were coming off easy maiden wins at the same venue. She clocked a sharp time and, with plenty of speed, the question is how far she wants to go. Out of an unraced half-sister to Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Discreet Lover, so trying her over further must be tempting.

BRILLIANT BERTI Cherie DeVaux

3c Noble Mission - Believe In Berti

With five wins from seven starts, most notably in the American Derby – a Listed race at Churchill Downs in June – and a G3 at Keeneland, Brilliant Berti is a young turf talent ready for the test against older horses next year. With barnmate More Than Looks retired, it’s logical to expect to see Brilliant Berti in top-level mile events, but his impressive up-and-coming trainer may have other options too as this colt runs like a horse well capable of stretching out. Races like the Turf Classic at Churchill Downs, the Manhattan at Belmont and the Arlington Million at Colonial should suit.

BULLARD Michael McCarthy

2c Gun Runner - Reve D’Amour

Citizen Bull on the lead, Bullard charging powerfully from off the pace (like he did when winning impressively on his second start last month in the G3 Bob Hope at Del Mar) … such a scenario could turn some of the Californian preps for the Kentucky Derby into exciting affairs. Bullard, who was incredibly strong also on the gallop-out at Del Mar (where he beat an odds-on Baffert colt on debut), will love added distance, and trainer McCarthy sees him as a two-turn horse. Yours truly sees him as a live Kentucky Derby contender.

DEEP MANHATTAN Cherie DeVaux

2c Justify - Take The Ribbon

One run, one win – and an impressive debut at that, over 8½ furlongs on turf at Fair Grounds in November. Coming from just off the pace, Deep Manhattan won the 11-runner race by five lengths from another interesting newcomer, Tom’s Magic, who took second by three. Cherie DeVaux’s team has been looking stronger by the week this year, and she could be in for an even better 2025, when Deep Manhattan will play his part. Out of Churchill Distaff Turf Mile winner Take The Ribbon, he is a half-brother to G1 runner-up Bookrunner.

HOWARD WOLOWITZ Jose D’Angelo

3c Munnings - Forget Me Not

With Cogburn retired, here's a young, talented runner who could make a big bang at four in the sprint division on the lawn – and over the synthetics for that matter. Having run a lot better than the bare result might suggest when an unlucky ninth at the Breeders' Cup, Howard Wolowitz produced a career-best performance to beat the in-form Run Carson readily in the Holiday Cheer Stakes, a black type race on Tapeta at Turfway Park at the weekend to register his third win from six starts. He is just the type to improve at four.

FULL SERRANO John Sadler

5h Full Mast - Serra Do Mar

Experienced clockers were keen on Full Serrano ahead of the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, and they were right when he improved markedly on previous form to run out a solid winner from Met Mile runner-up Post Time. This was much better form than Full Serrano’s second in the 10-furlong Pacific Classic. It’s likely that he will try that distance again in 2025, but first comes the Pegasus World Cup as a reported target. After that, the older division on the west coast looks weak, and here’s a late-developing sort ready to do some damage as a six-year-old.

MONTALCINO Cherie DeVaux

3c Take Charge Indy - Upstager

Montalcino lost narrowly as an odds-on favourite (after a seven-month layoff) when stepping up to stakes company in the recent Thanksgiving Classic at Fair Grounds, but he was edgy that day, and he remains an exciting young sprinter. He beat a rival who won his next two races when making his debut at Saratoga, and was even more impressive winning by six lengths in a seven-furlong Keeneland allowance race in April, setting fractions similar to those of Federal Judge’s in the G2 Phoenix later on the card. Montalcino is out of an unraced daughter of Stage Luck, a Listed winner over 8½  furlongs who was third in the Ruffian. There’s every chance that he will stay a mile.

SHE FEELS PRETTY Cherie DeVaux

3f Karakontie - Summer Sweet

OK, I rate Cherie DeVaux quite highly – if she doesn’t have a good season, then this list is going to look rather silly! Anyway, the trainer has stated that She Feels Pretty – so impressive with a six-length win over British-trained Soprano in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland – will be aimed at a Breeders’ Cup race in 2025. The BC Mile could turn out to be the best option. Program books offer plenty of opportunities against her own sex, but this daughter of BC Mile winner Karakontie won’t be out of place against the boys leading up to the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar. In the shorter term, She Feels Pretty could run in the G1 American Oaks on Santa Anita’s opening day card on Dec 26.

SIERRA LEONE Chad Brown

3c Gun Runner - Heavenly Love

Sierra Leone improved to the the extent that he was able to beat Fierceness in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, run over a track that really didn’t suit him. The pace was brutal, setting things up for this closer, but note that he won by coming from way back at a meet where only one other dirt race was won from well off the pace. He is being aimed at the Saudi Cup, a stamina test that will be right up his street; after that he he has only Fierceness (undergone what is described as ‘elective’ ankle surgery since the Breeders’ Cup and misses early targets) to worry about in the older division back home.

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