In the second of his weekly updates, Ron Wood with all the latest news and analysis en route to the first Saturday in May
There was just one race offering Kentucky Derby qualifying points last weekend and while it hasn’t been a great trial over the years, it looked an interesting contest this time around – not least considering the winning stable.
The race in question was the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs – now a Listed contest, downgraded from a G3 since last season, yet still worth 20 Derby qualification points to the winner.
The successful trainer was Brad Cox, whose lightly raced John Hancock had a half-length to spare over Owen Almighty.
First, let’s deal with the race, then more on the trainer. It was run in a stakes record of 1:42.27 for the 8½-furlong distance. However, the track was playing particularly fast and, judged on speed figures rather than just the raw time, this was not a quick effort considering the prevailing conditions. Far from it.
John Hancock got an 85 on the Beyer scale. That’s a lower number than the winners of the previous weekend’s three designated preps when champion juvenile Citizen Bull posted a 98 in the Robert B. Lewis.
Consider also that the Tampa winner dominated, taking a keen hold under Flavien Prat over the speed-favouring surface, and the runner-up raced in second throughout. A few reasons, then, for thinking this isn’t form to buy into.
However, even if John Hancock had things in his favour and didn’t impress the figures makers, he most likely still has his best days ahead of him seeing as Saturday’s event was only his second start and it followed a maiden victory over just six furlongs at the same venue.
The winner’s attitude is another reason to be positive as he was joined in the stretch by Owen Almighty, yet rather than being intimidated by his more experienced rival, he battled on gamely against the inside rail.
What is more, John Hancock certainly has the pedigree to make it at graded level, being a half-brother to G1-winning filly Speech, who was third in the 2020 Kentucky Oaks.
It sounds like connections think the G2 Tampa Bay Derby – the typical next step for winners of the Sam F. Davis – on March 8 could come too soon for him, but he has a host of other options elsewhere.
One of the more noteworthy winners of the Sam F. Davis was Bluegrass Cat, later runner-up to Barbaro in the 2006 Kentucky Derby, while Tapwrit finished second in the Tampa race and won the Belmont Stakes in 2017. John Hancock’s next run, wherever he shows up, will reveal more as to whether he’s progressive enough to reach that sort of level.
Poster had too much to do
A word on the third-placed runner from the Sam F. Davis, namely Eoin Harty’s Godolphin-owned Poster. Although he came into the race unbeaten in three starts, he’d been off since narrowly taking the G2 Remsen at Aqueduct in December and his off-the-pace run-style was all wrong for the way the Tampa track was playing. Put simply, he had too much to do.
Poster is a late May foal who should be better for this run and he will benefit from a longer trip and a more favourable pace set-up. He still has one more shot at gaining enough Derby points, so look for him doing better next time.
The obvious race for Poster is the Wood Memorial on April 5, seeing as that would mean a return to Aqueduct and a step up in trip to nine furlongs, although there’s also the G2 UAE Derby on the same day.
The horse’s lack of early speed might not be ideal for Meydan, a track with a lot of kickback, but at 9½ furlongs it’s over even further than the Wood and is just short of the Derby distance. Poster would surely relish the stamina test and his owners would presumably be keen to bolster their squad for the Dubai World Cup card.
The three-year-old division in Dubai looks particularly weak at the moment and the UAE Derby’s 100 points is the same as for the Wood and guarantees the winner a place in the starting gate at Churchill Downs.
Brad Cox: many other options
Now for more on Brad Cox, whose Mandaloun was promoted to first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby following the DQ of Medina Spirit. Triple Crown nominations were revealed last week and Cox has no fewer than 14 horses among the 373-long list. Only Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert have more.
Potential Triple Crown runners were made eligible with a $600 early nomination payment that was due on January 27, although others can be added – just stick another ‘0’ on those 600 bucks – on April 7, a month out from the race.
One of the Cox contenders is Tappan Street, who was covered on these pages last week, and another is Disco Time, who has won all three of his starts, the first two of them at Churchill Downs and the latest coming in the G3 Lecomte, a Derby prep at Fair Grounds in January. Mandaloun was only third in 2021 Lecomte.
Cox doesn’t have a standout among his team but he has plenty to be working with. He's a trainer to be following closely over the next few weeks as the stable pecking order becomes clearer.
River Thames set for Fountain of Youth
In other Derby news, Pletcher's unbeaten River Thames, winner of both of his starts at up to a mile at Gulfstream Park – including odds-on making all on the Holy Bull undercard – is being considered for the G2 Fountain of Youth, the main Florida Derby prep at the same venue in March. He has shown a lot of speed – Beyers of 92 and 94 so far – and his next race will begin to test his stamina.
“I’ll talk to [WinStar’s] Elliott [Walden] a little bit and see how the horse trains the next couple weeks and come up with a game plan,” said Pletcher. “We ran back in three weeks. It gives you four weeks to the Fountain of Youth from that race, eight weeks to the Florida Derby. There’s obviously other prep races as well.”
While we’re mentioning Beyers, we can rule out Colloquial, whose 106 figure is by far the highest of the year among three-year-olds, from Triple Crown considerations. Trainer George Weaver told the Daily Racing Form there are no plans to stretch out the colt, who will be staying at one turn.
Meanwhile, this coming Saturday, it’s the next Derby prep of the Fair Grounds season, the G2 Risen Star. This race was won by Mandaloun four years back, as well as subsequent Breeders’ Cup Classic hero Sierra Leone 12 months ago.
Godolphin’s G1 winner East Avenue, who stumbled badly at the break (watch him on the inner on the video above) when favourite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, heads a 13-runner field.
The Risen Star is the first Derby prep of the season worth 50 points to the winner – even the runner-up gets a healthy 25 – and the following day it’s the Sunland Derby (20 pointer), now a Listed stakes (down from G3). Mine That Bird was only fourth in the Sunland Park contest before winning the Kentucky Derby in 2009.
• Visit the Kentucky Derby website and the Tampa Bay Downs website
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