In the latest instalment of his weekly Kentucky Derby update, Ron Wood is disinclined to take the Fair Grounds form at face value
NEWS UPDATE: MAGNITUDE OFF KENTUCKY DERBY TRAIL WITH ANKLE CHIP
Surprise winner Magnitude produced a big performance to win the Risen Star at Fair Ground last weekend as the Road to the Kentucky Derby rolled into New Orleans.
However, there are reasons to be sceptical about the value of the form, even though the Steve Asmussen-trained Magnitude ran away with the G2 event, making all in a sharp time to score by nearly ten lengths.
Magnitude stopped the clock in 1:48.85, the fastest running of the race since the distance was extended to nine furlongs in 2020. The previous record was held by the same connections’ Epicenter, who later finished second in the Kentucky Derby in 2022. Epicenter and Magnitude also share the same sire, namely Not This Time.
And not only was the bare time rapid, it was quick on figures – taking into account the speed of the track – as well. On the Beyer scale, Magnitude earned a 108, the highest number in the division.
Magnitude was sent off at 43-1 for the Risen Star, having been beaten in the two earlier Derby points’ races at Fair Grounds, most recently finishing off the board in the G3 Lecomte.
As such, this performance, coming on his seventh start, represents huge improvement and evidently he was suited by the switch to front-running tactics, having met some trouble in the Lecomte.
Uncontested lead on favoured rail
So far so good. However, the longshot winner benefited from a track bias in this $500,000 contest, soon being positioned against the favoured inside rail in an uncontested lead. He showed good speed to get to the front from the outside gate, which was effectively post 12, but the track helped him.
Third-placed Built, who had Magnitude behind him when taking December’s Gun Runner at Fair Grounds (and likewise when second in the Lecomte), was the only one to get close to the winner. He moved up to challenge on the final turn but wilted in the straight, and the others were left trailing. The lightly raced Chunk Of Gold, also a 43-1 chance, picked up the pieces to nail Built on the line for second, 9¾ lengths adrift of a runaway winner.
Really, though, this was all about Magnitude, whose trainer paid tribute to Irish expat rider Ben Curtis for his efforts, saying: “He needed to make the decision to get over. He took the initiative and was very positive with what he wanted to do and the horse responded for him.
“I think the foundation, the races, being here staying in the system and what you can develop - it’s why we’re here. The horse has not missed a single day, a single oat. We always thought he was capable of more. We put him where he needed to be, played the bias of the racetrack and he took advantage of it.”
Magnitude’s connections also won the Risen Star with Pyro in 2008 and Gun Runner in 2016. The latter finished third in the Kentucky Derby and was Horse of the Year in his four-year-old season.
Other noteworthy winners of the Risen Star in recent years are Mandaloun, who was later a promoted winner of the Kentucky Derby in 2021, and Sierra Leone, subsequently a nose second in the big one at Churchill Downs and who won the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Del Mar last year.
All three of those earlier Asmussen winners then won the Louisiana Derby, the final Derby prep of the campaign at Fair Grounds, so it is fair to assume it is likely to be the same race next for Magnitude as well.
The Louisiana Derby is a G2 event worth a million bucks and it’ll be fascinating to see whether this horse can confirm his clear improvement. For now, though, it seems wary.
East Avenue: serious questions to answer
A word on East Avenue, who went off odds-on for the Risen Star before another tame effort. He was expected to bounce back after disappointment at the Breeders’ Cup, when he stumbled badly out of the gates, but he ran desperately with no obvious excuse this time.
His rider Tyler Gaffalione had no explanation.“I felt like a winner every step until we got to the far turn,” he said. “He switched leads and just kind of emptied out on me. I don’t have an answer for it. Hopefully he comes back good and we'll see what happens.”
There are now serious questions to answer on behalf of the Godolphin colt.
Sunland Park Derby: Getaway Car edges duel
On Sunday, the Sunland Park Derby in New Mexico offered up a thriller, with Bob Baffert-trained Getaway Car, under a front-running ride from Juan Hernandez, just edging out Caldera after a fierce duel down the length of the home straight for the $400,000 Listed contest.
“That was the race we expected him to run,” said Baffert’s assistant Jimmy Barnes. “He did a great job getting him to the lead and finding more.”
Getaway Car was paying a compliment to Baffert-trained stablemate Citizen Bull, having finished behind his stablemate three times last year. The Sunland winner cost $700,000 as a yearling and is a son of leading sire Curlin.
And let’s not forget, Baffert has had the first past the post in the Kentucky Derby seven times, so maybe it’d be unwise to put a line through this one’s claims. That said, Getaway Car's 92 Beyer figure will need improving upon if he’s to feature at Churchill Downs in May and he lacks the physical scope of some.
D Wayne Lukas-trained runner-up Caldera is at least trending in the right direction, Sunday’s near-miss coming off a maiden win on his third start. At this point it might be worth remembering that Mine That Bird was only fourth in the Sunland Derby, as it was known then, before winning the Kentucky Derby in 2009.
Rebel Stakes tops weekend preps
The primary designated Derby prep this weekend is the G2 Rebel – worth $1.25m – at Oaklawn Park on Saturday. The most notable feature about this $1.25 event is the record of Bob Baffert, who has won the race eight times – including with American Pharoah en route to his Triple Crown in 2015.
This year’s race has drawn a full field of 14 runners, with Baffert fielding Madaket Road, most recently third behind stablemate Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita.
Other likely types are headed by Speed King and Sandman, who finished one-two in last month’s Southwest Stakes at the same venue. The latter ran a huge race behind the front-running winner after completely blowing the start.
Also up this weekend is the John Battaglia Memorial on the all-weather at Turfway Park, where Rich Strike was fourth before his upset Derby win in 2022. The Hycainth Stakes in Japan is often more of a pointer to the UAE Derby than Churchill Downs.
In other Derby news, the Brad Cox-trained Tappan Street, runner-up in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park earlier this month, will skip next week’s Fountain of Youth at the same venue and instead train up to the Florida Derby.
Holy Bull winner Burnham Square is, however, very much on course for the Fountain of Youth, where he’ll likely face the exciting Todd Pletcher-trained River Thames, a striking winner on the Holy Bull undercard.
• Visit the Kentucky Derby website and the Fair Grounds website
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