International racing expert Ron Wood with his idea of the best bets for Saturday’s richly endowed racecard in Riyadh
Even with a host of big-name horses missing out, this year’s Saudi Cup – still the richest race in the world and set for 8.40pm local time at King Abdulaziz racecourse in Riyadh on Saturday – is as fascinating a puzzle as ever. And for my money, the early markets have it all wrong.
While the Japanese-trained Forever Young is the lukewarm favourite, superstar turf runner Romantic Warrior may well head international betting markets by the time they jump off.
However, it’s French-trained Facteur Cheval in which I am most interested. This horse has been widely available at double-figure prices, but I’d have him closer to Romantic Warrior and he looks the one to be with.
Although Facteur Cheval is also best known as a grass runner and won last year’s Dubai Turf, he shaped really well in his Saudi Cup prep at Meydan last month.
That was his first dirt start, and it is true to say he was below his peak level – but it was striking just how well he moved over what is a deep, attritional surface, evidently having no issue with the severe kickback. Meydan is by no means an easy place to go and run well if you're not used to the surface.
He ran into some traffic in the straight and, admittedly, didn’t really do a lot once in the clear, finishing seven lengths off the hard-fit local runner Walk Of Stars, who he'll meet again on Saturday. But that was a testing 9½ furlongs off a 97-day break, and don’t forget, it was just a trial.
Facteur Cheval should be better for that outing and this cut back in trip is in his favour, plus it seems fair to say the dirt surface in Riyadh can be easier to handle than Meydan.
The Saudi Cup is run over the same distance as the Dubai Turf – and like that race, it's around just one turn compared to the two turns for Facteur Cheval’s latest outing. He's drawn a little wide in 12, but Mishriff overcame the same stall in the 2021 edition.
Back to the early favourite, Forever Young. He was third in the two biggest races in the US last year (Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic) before winning his prep for this back at home last month.
However, those races were all ten-furlong contests and this will be the shortest trip he’s raced over since just getting up in the G3 Saudi Derby over a mile on this card last year. He’s no standout on form anyway, and he’s drawn wide so they’ll probably have to use him early to get a handy spot.
For Romantic Warrior, the big unknown is the dirt surface, as he’s done all his racing on turf, including winning ten G1s – seven at home, one in Australia, one in Japan and, most recently, when prepping for this race in Dubai.
There are, though, reasons for thinking he’ll handle it. For starters, he has speed, which is so often crucial on the dirt, albeit last year’s Saudi Cup set up for the late runners. He began his career with three straight wins over six furlongs.
There’s also his pedigree. While his sire Acclamation was a turf runner, the dam’s sire is Street Cry, who won the 2002 Dubai World Cup on dirt at Nad Al Sheba.
It might also be worth noting Romantic Warrior has trialled on ‘dirt’ at Sha Tin back home in Hong Kong. The track he’ll encounter under race conditions this weekend will be different, but Mishriff and Panthalassa (2023) won this race with limited experience on the surface. While I'd make him favourite, I think there's greater value in the French horse for betting purposes.
Amazingly, there’s just one runner in the Saudi Cup from the States, namely Rattle N Roll, and he prepped in Saudi Arabia. He’s no star in the US, but he did win a Keeneland G1 as a two-year-old, as well as the G2 Clark at Churchill Downs in November.
Saudi businessman Sharaf Mohamad Alhariri now has an interest in this horse, as he did for last year’s big-race US-trained winner Senor Buscador, and Rattle N Roll came from off the pace to land his course-and-distance G3 prep last month.
This will be a much sterner test, but Rattle N Roll can almost be considered a local now and that may give him an edge in a race in which the home-trained Emblem Road was an upset winner in 2022.
The main action on Saturday begins with the G3 Saudi Derby. Myriad Love, unbeaten in three starts in Japan, is following the same path as last year's winner Forever Young, but her compatriot Shin Forever is a tempting alternative at decent odds.
Shin Forever has come up short in Graded company on turf in Japan, but his sire Complexity was a G1 winner on dirt in the US and this one goes for Hideyuki Mori, who trained the first two winners of the Saudi Derby (2020 and 2021).
The presence of UAE 2,000 Guineas winner Golden Vekoma and smart US runner Cyclone State make this an intriguing contest.
The G2 Riyadh Dirt Sprint has attracted Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Straight No Chaser and I think he'll win. He again faces Japan's Remake, who won this last year but couldn't get in a blow at Del Mar.
The longer straight in Riyadh is much better for Remake, so he’s going to be popular in the market and should keep Straight No Chaser at a backable price. Frankly, anything odds against is fair on the US runner.
The last time a Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner turned up in this race was two years ago and that horse, Elite Power, hammered his rivals. Remake was only third that day and I doubt he’ll be able to live with Straight No Chaser either even back under more favourable conditions.
While I’m struggling to find convincing options in the Neom Turf Cup or in the 1351 Turf Sprint, I am keen on Deira Mile in the Longines Red Sea Turf Handicap, a G2 staying contest and the race before the main event.
This doesn’t look like a particularly strong contest. Aidan O’Brien trained Tower Of London to win this last year and he runs Continuous, who won the St Leger at Doncaster the only time he tried a staying trip. But the ground was soft then and he has a round action, hence he may not love the quick conditions or the tight turns in Riyadh. What is more, he became disappointing last year.
The Owen Burrows-trained Deira Mile was fourth in the Derby and St Leger in Britain last year. He should be suited by this test, can save ground from a low draw and he still looks to have some improvement in him. He is around a 5-1 chance with British bookmakers.
• Visit the Saudi Cup website
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