The Rebel Stakes produced a popular result for a small-time operation – but Ron Wood is dealing in cold, hard analysis in his latest weekly update
Given his small-time barn, much had already been made of Coal Battle’s ‘feelgood’ status on this year’s Kentucky Derby trail even before he ran in last weekend’s Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn.
Well, the dream is still alive for 72-year-old trainer Lonnie Briley after the colt took his unbeaten record on dirt to five in the $1.25 million event, which was postponed 24 hours until Sunday owing to arctic temperatures at the Arkansas venue.
In truth, this horse wasn’t cheap at $70,000 as a yearling, but he was his veteran handler’s first graded-stakes winner, while jockey Juan Vargas hadn’t scored in such company for 11 years.
Backing up from a win in the Smarty Jones Stakes – the first of Oaklawn’s Derby preps in January – Coal Battle was sent off a near 12-1 chance for the Rebel, won by American Pharoah in his Triple Crown season.
After a length-and-a-quarter victory over Madaket Road, this son of Godolphin Mile winner Coal Front now tops the Derby qualifying leaderboard with 70 points, so he’s already guaranteed a place at the big show.
Plenty to like and cheer for, then, and he’ll doubtless take plenty of cash at the windows if he makes it to Kentucky.
However, taking sentiment out of it and assessing his claims on form and speed figures, it is clear he’ll have to do way more if he's to seriously figure come the first Saturday in May.
Breaking from the rail in a 13-runner field for the G2 Rebel, Coal Battle produced a sustained bid from off the pace to run down the front-running Madaket Road – but the runner-up had earlier finished only third behind Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita.
What is more, Coal Battle’s 91 Beyer speed figure is nothing to write home about. (Magnitude, now out of the Derby reckoning with an ankle chip, leads the three-year-old division with his 108 achieved in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds.)
Although Coal Battle was kept fresh for the Rebel, which came after a seven-week pause, it looks as if he’ll be given another chance to press his claims in the Arkansas Derby on March 29.
Also on Sunday was the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park, a race in which Rich Strike finished fourth ahead of his shock Derby win in 2022.
Turfway Park: Burrito form far from hot
California Burrito earned 20 Derby points with a narrow front-running success over the all-weather surface, despite edging to the centre of the track in the closing stages.
This form is far removed from a Kentucky Derby-winning level, although this horse did win at Churchill Downs earlier in his career, albeit in a maiden claimer when he could have been bought for $150,000.
More points may be needed if California Burrito is to earn a place in the Derby, so it'll presumably be the G3 Jeff Ruby (worth 100 points to the winner) back at Turfway Park on March 22.
Luxor Cafe leads on Japan Road
Further afield, the ‘Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby’ continued with the Hyacinth Stakes at Tokyo racecourse. The presence of Japanese-trained runners is a modern-era Derby trend – don’t forget, subsequent Saudi Cup winner Forever Young was narrowly beaten in last year’s race – but this Listed contest tends to be more of a pointer to the UAE Derby than Kentucky.
Still, there was an interesting winner in Luxor Cafe, an American Pharoah brother to Cafe Pharoah, who won the same race in 2020.
Cafe Pharoah didn’t contest the Kentucky Derby but he did twice win the G1 February Stakes at home in Japan. Luxor Cafe is also a half-brother to Regal Glory, a multiple G1 winner on turf in the States and the dam was a winner up to G2 level on grass in the US.
Luxor Cafe, who is Triple Crown-nominated, now heads the Japanese points table, which guarantees a place in the line-up at Churchill Downs.
Saudi Derby: Golden success for Dubai
There was also the G3 Saudi Derby in Riyadh on Saturday’s Saudi Cup card – a race won 12 months ago by Forever Young (him again) ahead of his UAE Derby triumph.
This $1.5m race isn’t a designated Derby qualifier, and Dubai-trained winner Golden Vekoma isn’t even nominated for the Triple Crown. He will now be pointed to the UAE Derby on April 5, where victory would earn him enough points for the Kentucky Derby, for which he would need to be for $6,000 at the next nomination stage in April if he is to come into serious Derby reckoning.
Golden Vekoma shapes like he’ll benefit from a step-up in trip – Saturday's race was only a mile and he won despite being on the ‘wrong’ lead leg up the straight – but frankly is seriously doubtful he would be good enough to merit a trip to Churchill Downs in May.
Look hard enough, and you might notice a race purporting to a degree of significance in England on Wednesday, when Kempton Park hosts the so-called “European Road To The Kentucky Derby” Conditions Stakes. The only problem is that none of the six-strong field hold Triple Crown nominations and they are all essentially turf or all-weather horses.
Three preps on tap this weekend
It gets more interesting on Saturday, though, with three more prep races in the US, each of them worth 50 points to the winner (and this virtually guaranteeing them a spot in the Kentucky Derby).
There’s the G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream, which features Burnham Square, winner of Holy Bull Stakes at the same venue earlier in February, and River Thames, impressive winner of a minor race on the same card and mentioned regularly since in Kentucky Derby despatches.
There’s also the G3 Gotham at Aqueduct. A name to look out for in this one is McAfee, a well-regarded half-brother to last year’s Kentucky Oaks winner Thorpedo Anna.
At Santa Anita it’s the G2 San Felipe, a race won in 2014 by subsequent Derby winner California Chrome, and this could provide the eagerly anticipated next step for the Bob Baffert-trained Barnes.
Unbeaten in two starts, most recently winning the seven-furlong G2 San Vicente at Santa Anita in January, Barnes is named after Baffert’s longtime assistant Jimmy Barnes and has been regarded as a likely Derby candidate ever since he scored at Churchill Downs on his debut to become his trainer’s first winner at the venue since the ‘Medina Spirit’ ban was rescinded.
Barnes remained the shortest-priced individual betting entity in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager when Pool 4 closed last week. He’s also vying for favouritism with Citizen Bull in European ante-post books, so there’s plenty riding on his next appearance if he shows up this weekend.
Citizen Bull, also nominated to the San Felipe, is expected to bypass the race and head straight to the Santa Anita Derby. Baffert-trained stablemate Rodriguez, most recently second to Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis, is another possible.
Magnitude might be out of the picture, but one horse very much still on the trail, though, is the D. Wayne Lukas-trained Caldera, edged out recently in the Sunland Park Derby and now being considered for next month’s Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds.
Another name to keep in mind is Baeza, who is trained by John Shirreffs and who won a maiden at Santa Anita on February 14, clocking a sharp time. He's now being pointed to the Santa Anita Derby.
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