After some fairly uninspiring preps, Ron Wood finally has something to shout about in his weekly update
Now we’re talking. After some less-than-convincing Kentucky Derby trials over the past few weeks, a couple of serious contenders for the Churchill Downs showpiece emerged at the weekend – and one of them in particular looks potentially top class.
All the talk before Saturday’s G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita was of the Bob Baffert-trained Barnes and he duly dominated the market. However, it was Journalism who came out on top and created a highly favourable impression on a big day for Michael McCarthy, who saddled four winners on the card, three of them coming in graded stakes.
The previously unbeaten Barnes, racing with his ears pinned back, took the field along in the San Felipe and looked like being a good winner when opening up a bit of daylight from the turn. But he went left under a right-hand whip early in the stretch and the winner ran by him pretty convincingly.
Journalism was having his first start since taking December’s Los Alamitos Futurity and earned a 108 Beyer speed figure. That’s the same number posted by the now sidelined Magnitude in the G2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds last month – and don’t forget, last year’s champion juvenile Citizen Bull earned just a 98 when winning a G3 at Santa Anita in January.
Journalism, with his 47.5 qualifying points, is now vying for Kentucky Derby favouritism with Citizen Bull in international books and those two look set for a fascinating clash in the Santa Anita Derby on April 5.
“It is always great to have a horse that can take you places and he looks like he is taking himself and everybody else with him,” McCarthy said., reflecting on Journalism’s victory.
“I was fairly confident today. I wouldn’t say I was overly confident, but I thought he was doing well enough to make some noise today. It is a little overwhelming to think of where this horse could go.”
The Santa Anita Derby is over an extra half-furlong, but that will be no problem for Journalism. He was getting going only at the end of Saturday’s race and he’s by a top-class ten-furlong runner in Curlin.
Journalism did show some early speed in the San Felipe but was soon stalking the pace, coping with being a little pinned on the inside, before being switched out with his challenge on the final turn. This was a smart effort and one he looks like building on.
As for Barnes, he was up in distance – from the seven furlongs of January’s San Vicente to 8½ furlongs, and going around two turns for the first time – so it would be easy to conclude he didn’t stay.
But I feel that might be lazy analysis. Barnes had been off for two months and his greenness was evident in the closing stages, yet he still earned a career-best 105 Beyer. It wasn’t enough on Saturday, and he’ll do well to reverse form with Journalism any time soon, but few three-year-olds have run faster this season.
“He’ll move forward off of that,” Baffert said. “I think he’ll get a lot out of that. He lost a shoe coming out of the gate. I’m not using that as an excuse.”
Still, the Barnes bubble has been somewhat burst so it's easy to see punters instead now latching on to the same trainer's Cornucopian, an impressive debut winner on the Rebel Stakes undercard at Oaklawn on February 23.
His maiden score came over just six furlongs, but there has been recent interest in him in international markets at around 25-1 for Churchill Downs and perhaps he will head back to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby on March 29.
Fountain of Youth: Sovereignty rules
The other horse of major Derby interest from the weekend is Godolphin’s Sovereignty, who stayed on well to win the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park, reeling in the highly touted River Thames.
This was listed as an 8½-furlong contest, but the race was lengthened by 85 feet due to a recent change in the ‘run-up’ (distance travelled before the timing of the race, and the official distance, begins). The total run-up of the Fountain of Youth was 165 feet, so another quarter of a furlong, compared to 85 feet for the San Felipe.
Sovereignty needed pretty much all of the distance and seems sure to improve for even greater tests of stamina. He also ought to sharpen up for Saturday’s run seeing as he’d been off since winning a G3 at Churchill Downs – when showing his liking for the Derby track – in October.
His 98 Beyer figure from the weekend leaves him with a bit still to find, but it looks fine considering the progress he is expected to make.
This Bill Mott-trained son of top stallion Into Mischief will now be considered for the nine-furlong Florida Derby back at Gulfstream, although that comes up quite quickly (on March 29) and he is already on 60 Derby qualifying points, sitting third on the leaderboard.
Godolphin USA’s director of bloodstock Michael Banahan said Sunday: “The Florida Derby will certainly be in the mix. It will probably suit him a little bit better with the configuration of the track for the longer distance race, as well.”
The Todd Plecher-trained River Thames was beaten only a neck, a fine effort considering he made his debut only in January, and he’ll get a shot at another trial, but this wasn’t the performance of a serious Derby contender.
The same goes for Holy Bull winner Burnham Square, who was sent off favourite for the Fountain of Youth but could manage only fourth.
Pletcher also has recent winners Grande and Disruptor to consider for Derby trials. They both won in minor company at Gulfstream last week and Disruptor, a son of Gun Runner, looked good in taking a maiden by over nine lengths for a 92 Beyer.
It will be interesting to see which of the barn’s runners ends up in the Florida Derby, a race Pletcher has won eight times, including with subsequent Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming in 2017.
Gotham: Flood Zone wins for Wathnan
There was also the G3 Gotham at Aqueduct on Saturday and it went to Flood Zone, who was making his first start for Brad Cox and gave a quick return on investment to Wathnan Racing, with the son of Frosted having been purchased out of the Victor Barboza barn since winning a Gulfstream maiden in January.
Flood Zone, who earned 50 Derby points, was another to register a 98 Beyer, but this was just a one-turn mile contest and it’s doubtful he’ll have the quality to make a serious Derby contender.
Still, his next run will reveal more. That could come back at Aqueduct in the nine-furlong Wood Memorial on April 5, but considering his earlier success at Gulfstream – and that he’s trained in Florida – perhaps he is another for the Florida Derby. There has also been talk of the UAE Derby on the World Cup card at Meydan on April 5.
Looking ahead, there is a Derby points race under the lights at Dundalk in Ireland on Friday and the entries feature two horses who have been nominated for the Triple Crown in the shape of Aftermath and Mount Kilimanjaro, both trained by Aidan O’Brien. Aftermath is a maiden winner by 2018 Triple Crown hero Justify.
O’Brien’s Mendelssohn won the Dundalk race in 2018 before taking the UAE Derby by about the length of the Meydan straight, but he trailed in last behind Justify at Churchill Downs.
This Saturday it's the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. Street Sense won this race and the Kentucky Derby in 2007. In 2010, Super Saver was only third in the Tampa contest before winning the big one at Churchill Downs.
The Chad Brown-trained Chancer McPatrick is expected to make his seasonal return. Winner of two G1s last year, he’s been off since finishing sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar in November, having reportedly had surgery on a front ankle.
In other news, First Resort, winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs in November, is out of the Triple Crown due to a stress fracture in his left-hind ankle.
Also out with a muscle tear is Ferocious, twice runner-up in G1 company as a two-year-old before coming fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
• Visit the Kentucky Derby website, the Santa Anita website and the Gulfstream Park website
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