International racing expert Geir Stabell with his ranking of the three-year-olds currently at the centre of conversations ahead of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday May 3
When we first looked at a suitable date for this feature, late February was mooted; then it was decided to wait until after March 1, when the Fountain of Youth, San Felipe and Gotham Stakes were run.
That now looks like a good call, as seeing two of those preps it became very easy to decide on the top two. In Magnitude’s absence, Journalism and Sovereignty look way ahead of the pack in my opinion.
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1. JOURNALISM trained by Michael McCarthy
b c Curlin - Mopotism (Uncle Mo)
Odds generally available 10-1
Journalism’s San Felipe win was outstanding. That is a word we should use only sparingly, but the way he put Barnes in his place, he must be a top-class horse. Barnes looked like he was going to keep his perfect record turning for home at Santa Anita. That was not to be as Journalism – about three lengths behind him going around the bend – began to find his stride. He closed the gap to go by the odds-on favorite some 20 strides from the winning post and ran out a solid 1¾-length winner while spotting his rival four pounds. Both colts galloped out well but only the winner is going to love the stamina test presented by the Derby.
On the Kentucky Derby trail: Journalism – now we’re talking about a proper contender
2. SOVEREIGNTY Bill Mott
b c Into Mischief - Crowned (Bernardini)
Odds 12-1
Sovereignty made some statement in the Fountain of Youth. Not only was he up against it returning after a four-month break while facing three rivals coming off strong recent wins, he was also up against a track that certainly doesn’t suit his running style. He did not look a likely winner when last heading into the home turn, but he did as soon he gave chase at the top of the short stretch-run. Producing one late kick, he caught River Thames to beat him cheekily by a neck. Sovereignty is sure to improve when stretching out and competing over course with a longer finish. That he already has a stakes win at Churchill Downs is another plus.
3. RIVER THAMES Todd Pletcher
b c Maclean’s Music - Proportionality (Discreet Cat)
Odds 25-1
River Thames surrendered to Sovereignty (giving two pounds) in the Fountain of Youth and at first glance it seemed hard to imagine the Pletcher trainee having a chance of reversing the form. But writing him off would be folly. Having only his third start and lacking experience, River Thames idled when Sovereignty attacked and he will have learnt a lot from the race. Improving rapidly, he is quite speedy but there’s stamina in his family and River Thames is an exciting young horse.
4. CITIZEN BULL Bob Baffert
b c Into Mischief - No Joke (Distorted Humor)
Odds 8-1f
Citizen Bull’s Breeders’ Cup win seemed ‘cheap’ as he enjoyed a comfortable lead at Del Mar but he made a good impression once more when capturing the Robert B. Lewis in February. Baffert called him “a need-the-lead type” last fall and he was soon in command also in the Lewis, taking it by almost four lengths from the non-staying Rodriguez. Will Citizen Bull appreciate ten furlongs? Odds-on the answer is maybe not. Is he one of the best horses on the trail right now? Odds-on the answer is yes. Is he Baffert’s best Derby hope? Even money the answer is yes.
5. BARNES Bob Baffert
b c Into Mischief - All American Dream (American Pharoah)
Odds 20-1
Barnes looks shorter on stamina than his namesake, Baffert’s longtime assistant Jimmy, but he is a seriously talented horse and we should not dismiss his Derby prospects based on one run, a defeat against Journalism in the San Felipe. How can he reverse that form over 10 furlongs at level weights at Churchill Downs? How indeed … but we are still two months out and a lot can happen during that period. Barnes is a player as of now and even if, as must be suspected, he is more of a miler we will hear a lot from him this year. Perhaps the Preakness is going to be his race.
6. EAST AVENUE Brendan Walsh
b c Medaglia D’Oro - Dance Music (Ghostzapper)
Odds 33-1
It would have been better to learn that something was amiss rather than the trainer saying nothing had come to light after East Avenue’s poor effort in the Risen Star, but why should this contender be as big as 33-1? The form of his dominant G1 win in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland at two has worked out well, while his Breeders’ Cup appearance was over in a matter of strides after a terrible start so let’s forget that run. We have actually seen how good he is (or perhaps was) twice, so let’s give him one final chance.
7. BULLARD Michael McCarthy
bb c Gun Runner - Reve D’Amour (Warrior’s Reward)
Odds 50-1
Bullard’s seasonal debut got delayed as fever ruled him out of the Rebel and he is reportedly being rerouted to the Arkansas Derby. He looked a star in the making when outclassing Madaket Road by almost five lengths in the seven-furlong Bob Hope at Del Mar last year. Trainer Michael McCarthy, who also has my #1 pick Journalism, said at the time that he saw him as a two-turn horse but he stuck to seven panels for the colt’s 3yo campaign, running him in the San Vicente. Bullard had no chance against Barnes on that occasion but things might be different if they meet in a race where stamina is more important than speed.
8. COAL BATTLE Lonnie Briley
bb c Coal Front - Wolfblade (Midshipman)
Odds 22-1
Yes, he is small, he is unassuming, and not many in the wider racing world had even heard of Coal Battle’s connections back in January. They have now. He is far from your typical Derby winner but he keeps on clearing bigger hurdles each time he is asked to; and he is just the sort to relish the battle at Churchill Downs. His win over Lewis Stakes third Madaket Road in the Rebel was impressive. He blew past the leader carrying five pounds more than the Baffert horse. A fluke? Well, that was his third stakes win on the bounce so perhaps not. He reminds me of Smarty Jones.
9. CHANCER McPATRICK Chad Brown
b c McKinzie - Bernadreamy (Bernardini)
Odds 40-1
Chancer McPatrick had his fifth breeze within the past month when covering four furlongs in good style at Payson Park last weekend and we may see him in the Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday [March 8]. He wasn’t the only one to under-perform in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar and we should pay more attention to his two wins at Saratoga, where he beat the fast and precocious Ferocious in the Hopeful Stakes over seven furlongs and followed up by outclassing Tip Top Thomas in the one-mile Champagne Stakes. Coming from well off the pace on both occasions, at the time Chancer McPatrick looked very much like a colt for next year - which is now.
10. JOHN HANCOCK Brad Cox
ch c Constitution - Scribbling Sarah (Freud)
Odds 33-1
Unraced at two, with a maiden win and a narrow success in the Sam F Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs in 2025, John Hancock will soon be facing stiffer tests, but there’s a lot like about this contender. Overcoming lack of experience, he won gamely by a head from Owen Almighty, who was runner-up in last year’s Iroquois, with last year’s Remsen winner Poster well beaten in third. A half-brother to Ashland Stakes winner and Kentucky Oaks third Speech, John Hancock raced a bit freely on the lead at Tampa, but still had enough left to counter when Owen Almighty headed him briefly inside the final furlong.
11. DISCO TIME Brad Cox
b c Not This Time - Disco Chick (Jump Start)
Odds 25-1
Sloppy track form is always unreliable but here are two things to note about Disco Time: he did really well to win from well off the pace as the mud was flying in the Lecomte Stakes, and the fact that the track was so bad threw even more experience into the bargain for this lightly raced colt. Disco Time’s neck verdict over Built, with Innovator a close third, was not top-class form – but it was significant improvement from his soft allowance win at Churchill Downs last November. Being 3-for-3, he is the only unbeaten horse on this list.
12. SANDMAN Mark Casse
rg c Tapit - Distorted Music (Distorted Humor)
Odds 25-1
This colt has been growing a fan club without winning anything of importance; the main reason to like him is that he comes running hard late on in his races. He will stay, and he’s improving all the time. A bad start beat him when he got up for second, beaten a length by Speed King, in the Southwest Stakes – though he had no excuses when third to Coal Battle in the Rebel Stakes. Both of those races were over a mile-and-a-sixteenth, and Sandman is crying out for at least another furlong.
• Visit the Kentucky Derby website
Journalism: Read all about it – now we’re talking about a proper Kentucky Derby contender
John Hancock signs in with nice attitude and pedigree – but we shouldn’t buy into Tampa Bay form
Citizen Bull: Plenty to like but champion still lacks the ‘wow’ factor
Jay Hovdey: The perfect season – remembering Cigar’s incredible 1995
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