Expert handicapper Graham Dench casts his eye over the G1 events at the four-day Cheltenham Festival, which runs from Tuesday to Friday [March 11-14]
Months of feverish anticipation among the jump racing communities of Britain and Ireland come to a thrilling climax on Tuesday [March 11] when the Cheltenham Festival begins its four-day stand.
The annual jamboree opens in time-honoured fashion with the Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – run this year in honour of the Irish jockey who tragically lost his life last month after a racecourse fall.
The first of 13 G1 races at jump racing’s Olympics, the Supreme has heralded the arrival of a host of stars over the years. This year’s edition offers a first opportunity for UK racegoers to see a talent potentially as bright as any ever sent over by Willie Mullins, the pre-eminent jumps trainer of his time and by far the most successful trainer in festival history.
After just two runs over hurdles, Kopek Des Bordes has already been compared to the race’s greatest winner Golden Cygnet. The level he showed in his effortless G1 win at Leopardstown last month would already be enough to win a typical renewal and he looks every inch a future champion, although he’s a naturally exuberant type, the first-time hood will help Paul Townend keep a lid on him.
Tuesday’s undoubted highlight is the Unibet Champion Hurdle, in which the brilliant 2023 winner Constitution Hill – unbeaten in 10 races including eight G1s since emerging from the point-to-point field – seeks to reclaim his crown after being forced to miss last year’s race.
A remarkable tenth Champion Hurdle for trainer Nicky Henderson would be a near-formality if Constitution Hill was in the same form as when beating last year’s winner State Man two years ago, but he hasn’t run to anywhere near that level in four wins since. A recent racecourse gallop evidently satisfied connections that he’s back to his best – but he will need to be, and by no means all Festival odds-on chances oblige.
If Constitution Hill is going to be beaten it will be here, for the mare Brighterdaysahead put up the hurdles performance of the season when a 30-length winner of a G1 event at Leopardstown at Christmas, having beaten State Man at Punchestown the time before.
There is no suggestion she was flattered at Leopardstown, as the gallop was fierce and she powered clear relentlessly, and she will once again have the services of a pacemaker.
Mares receive a hefty seven pound weight break and have a great record in this race, so if Constitution Hill can beat Brighterdaysahead fair and square on these terms, he will indeed be the horse of a generation. Atv likely odds, I’m betting against.
Last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner Majborough looks a class apart in the Arkle Chase, and Lossiemouth, who might have troubled the best in the Champion Hurdle, ought to have little trouble repeating last year’s win in the far easier Mares’ Hurdle Both will be heavily odds-on, however, and better bets are available elsewhere later in the week.
Wednesday: Marine Nationale worth a look
The highlight of Wednesday’s four G1 events is the Queen Mother Champion Chase. There’s little argument that hot favourite Jonbon boasts the season's best form, but weighing against that is the fact that he has won only two of five of his races at Cheltenham – and one of those was a bit of a scramble – while he is unbeaten in 15 races elsewhere.
The track’s undulations are not for everyone, and at the prices it’s worth looking elsewhere for an each-way selection against the market leader.
Marine Nationale, impressive winner of the Supreme in 2023, has improved steadily since missing last year's Festival with a ligament injury, and he looks ready to peak again here on drying ground that should put the emphasis on speed.
European bookmakers have priced up Wednesday’s opener, the Turners Novices’ Hurdle, as a straight match. Mullins-trained Final Demand impressed at the Dublin Racing Festival and looks solid, but preference is for The New Lion, who was snapped up privately by JP McManus after a hugely impressive win in the Challow Hurdle. That race has not been a great guide to the Turners, but The New Lion looked something special at Newbury.
Neither of the day’s other G1s make much appeal as betting mediums, but there might be some mileage in opposing hot favourite Ballyburn as he steps up in trip for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase. He was still under consideration for the two-mile Arkle at the weekend, and he surely wouldn’t have been running over three miles here if the meeting’s intermediate novice chase had not lost its G1 status.
Thursday: Say oui to Il Est Francais
Thursday looks a good day to play, with the win bet of the entire meeting and a strong each-way shout in the two G1 contests on the card.
There is no more visually exciting chaser in Europe than the French-trained Il Est Francais, who captured both hearts and minds with a breathtaking display of bold-jumping front-running as a novice at Kempton last season.
A similar outcome looked on the cards when he returned to Kempton for the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day, but after another electric round of jumping he could not this time maintain the gallop for the full three miles and was collared at the last by the patiently-ridden Banbridge.
The drop back to 2½ miles for the Ryanair Chase makes perfect sense, and while last year’s Brown Advisory winner Fact To File will be no pushover, Il Est Francais is a strong fancy.
Although Last year’s winner Teahupoo is a warm favourite for the later Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle, after a drying week he looks vulnerable unless underfoot conditions deteriorate again.
It might seem fanciful to expect Home By The Lee to trouble the reigning champion after failing to finish closer than third in three previous appearances in the race, but following tweaks to both his regime at home and the tactics he now looks a different horse.
His jockey JJ Slevin is a rider for the big occasion and he has been making very positive noises. Despite a likely big field there is not a lot of depth here, so he makes strong each-way appeal.
Friday: Galopin heading for history
Cheltenham traditionally saves the best until last and we should see a bit of history made in Friday’s Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup when Galopin Des Champs bids to become only the second triple winner since the mighty Arkle in the 1960s.
It has taken a while for the racing public to take to Galopin Des Champs fully into their affections, perhaps because Willie Mullins enjoys such overwhelming dominance in the top races that there’s nothing new about another champion from his stable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p110-zcuZpUHowever, the reception Galopin Des Champs returned to after a third successive win in the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown confirmed he has now become very much a public horse, and there will be no more popular winner all week if he can repeat that feat here.
And why wouldn’t he? He is much the best horse in the race and it’s almost impossible to find a weakness. Typically, his jumping is faultless, there are no concerns about the going, and he’s never stronger than when coming away from the last. He cannot be opposed.
At better odds try East India Dock to beat Lulamba in the opening JCB Triumph Hurdle. No trainer has made greater strides in the last 12 months or so than East India Dock’s handler James Owen, and the gelding has stepped up on his useful staying form from the Flat to post three smart wins over hurdles, two of them crucially over course and distance. Lulamba made a strong impression at Ascot – but he looks more style than substance.
Graham Dench’s selections
Tues: 1.20 Kopek Des Bordes, 4.00 Brighterdaysahead
Weds: 1.20 The New Lion, 4.00 Marine Nationale
Thurs: 3.20 Il Est Francais, 4.00 Home By The Lee
Fri: 1.20 East India Dock, 4.00 Galopin Des Champs
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