In the latest instalment of his weekly series, Ron Wood turns his attentions to the legendary trainer’s latest bid to win for the fifth time in Kentucky
It was 1999 when D. Wayne Lukas last landed his fourth Kentucky Derby – but what are the chances of the legendary Hall of Famer adding a fifth this year?
Well, it’s a question that needs posing, as he’s set to have at least one runner in the starting gate following American Promise’s win in the $500,000 Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs on Saturday.
It's fair to say this horse wouldn’t have been on many people's radar prior to the weekend, so he needs a closer inspection now.
First, I'm afraid we're starting with the negatives – and there are quite a few. This race is a new Derby qualifier, worth 50 points to the winner (virtually guaranteeing them a spot in the Derby field), having previously been run on turf later in the year, but it was just a one-turn contest that didn’t attract a strong field.
One of the headliners, John Hancock, was scratched, with his connections instead favouring this weekend’s Louisiana Derby.
American Promise, who had pressed the pace, galloped on strongly to score by almost eight lengths, but his 95 Beyer speed figure is short of what will be required at Churchill Downs in May.
He had looked well exposed as short of Derby class prior to Saturday’s race, having finished unplaced in a couple of other points races. Indeed, a review of the video of his penultimate start, when finishing fifth in the G2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds, reveals no obvious excuses.
American Promise was left with just six rivals, and the favourite was Bob Baffert-trained Getaway Car, who had earlier edged out Caldera, another possible Churchill Downs contender for 89-year-old Lukas, when taking the Sunland Park Derby. But the Baffert runner hardly advertised the Sunland form: having led early, he faded from the home turn.
Consider also that the Colonial Downs track has been favouring speed, so American Promise was advantageously placed in his pressing position. His rider, Nik Juarez, noted afterwards: “I didn’t want to use my horse early but I knew I had to get a forward position with how the track has been playing.”
All that considered, it’s no surprise American Promise’s win barely made a ripple in the international markets, with the Lukas colt being available at 40-1 for the Kentucky Derby in a place or two and not even being quoted by some bookmakers.
Looking at the positives
However, before we completely write him off, let’s look at the positives. While it may take a leap of faith to think American Promise will be good enough to contend come the first Saturday in May, he did relish the nine-furlong trip at the weekend and he could progress again for another furlong.
His pedigree also offers hope on the stamina score, as he’s by Triple Crown winner Justify and the dam is by Tapit, who can be a strong influence for stamina. Note also that American Promise fetched $750,000 as a yearling and is a half-brother to a G2 winner in Hoosier Philly, so he’s supposed to be a pretty good racehorse.
American Promise is a May foal who took six goes to win a maiden, so he’s evidently been slow to develop, and maybe he’s simply getting good at just the right time.
Therefore, perhaps we don’t put a line through American Promise with a red pen – though it remains hard to deny that others have more convincing claims, which leads us nicely to the fifth Kentucky Derby Future Wager.
Journalism back to work
When the pool closed on Sunday night, San Felipe winner Journalism ended as the 5-1 favourite. American Promise was not an individual entry in the latest pool, so he’d come under ‘all other three-year-olds’, which closed at 10-1.
Journalism’s Beyer figure for his Santa Anita success earlier this month was a division-topping 108 – which puts American Promise’s figure into some sort of context.
The son of Curlin is still on course for the Santa Anita Derby, having resumed work on Sunday [March 16], when he pleased trainer Michael McCarthy in a solo drill over four furlongs under his regular rider Umberto Rispoli.
Coming up: John Hancock tops Louisiana Derby
This weekend comes the Louisiana Derby, worth 100 qualifying points to the winner at Fair Grounds on Saturday [March 22]. Never mind the Kentucky Derby, this race is worth a cool $1m on its own.
Unbeaten in two starts at Tampa Bay, John Hancock is 7-2 favorite on the morning line. Trained by Brad Cox, he has yet to impress the clock watchers, though the form of his recent victory in the Sam F. Davis was boosted when runner-up Owen Almighty won the Tampa Bay Derby.
The Cox-trained Mandaloun was only sixth in the Louisiana Derby in 2021, but then finished second past the Kentucky Derby, later being promoted to top spot. In 2019, Country House finished fourth in the Louisiana Derby, but then finished second in the Kentucky Derby before being awarded the race.
The aforementioned Caldera is also set for the Louisiana Derby – and he’s 5-1 on the morning line – but it’s hard to enthuse over him after his Sunland form took such a knock at Colonial Downs.
Keep close eye on Turfway trial
It’s also the Jeff Ruby Steaks, another 100-pointer, at Turfway Park this Saturday, won by subsequent Derby hero Animal Kingdom when it was still called the Spiral Stakes back in 2011.
Indeed, even though this G3 contest is run on an all-weather track, it’s turned into a good pointer to the Triple Crown in recent years. For instance, Rich Strike finished third in the 2022 edition before his huge upset win in the Kentucky Derby, while the following year’s Jeff Ruby was won by Two Phil’s ahead of his second-place finish at Churchill Downs.
Just last year, Seize The Grey – for D. Wayne Lukas – was third in the Turfway race. He didn’t contest the Kentucky Derby, but he won the G2 Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard and followed up at Pimlico in the Preakness, the middle leg of the Triple Crown.
This year’s Jeff Ruby features Godolphin’s Poster, who finished third behind John Hancock in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa. Poster started out on turf, which suggests he might be okay with the switch to the all-weather – and he’ll certainly be suited by going back up a half-furlong in trip, as he's just a stayer.
Poster’s rivals include the 1-2-3 from last month’s John Battaglia Memorial, the first of the two Turfway qualifiers, headed by the winner California Burrito.
If recent history is anything to go by, both of this weekend’s trials will be worth watching closely – and you just might want to look beyond just the winners.
• Visit the Kentucky Derby website and the Colonial Downs website
Tampa prep merits a serious look – just ignore the winner and concentrate on third-placed Hill Road
Journalism: Read all about it – now we’re talking about a proper Kentucky Derby contender
John Hancock signs in with nice attitude and pedigree – but we shouldn’t buy into Tampa Bay form
Citizen Bull: Plenty to like but champion still lacks the ‘wow’ factor
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