In his latest weekly assessment of Kentucky Derby prep races, Ron Wood suggests the winners at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park will need serious pace help if they are to figure at Churchill Downs
If the winners of last weekend's two Kentucky Derby points races are to challenge for top honours at Churchill Downs in May, they'll need some help from the leaders. Put simply, it’ll be a case of the faster the pace, the better for them.
Let’s start with Tiztastic, who won the $1m Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. Subsequent to bagging a couple of valuable races on the turf at Kentucky Downs last year, he was beaten in four straight graded events on the dirt.
However, this Steve Asmussen-trained colt was up a furlong to 9½ furlongs – Derby preps don’t come over any further – and he initially sat well off an overly strong tempo.
Racing in the purple-and-white silks of Derrick Smith (and also racing for Winchell Thoroughbreds, alongside the Coolmore ‘lads’), Tiztastic was only ninth in a field of ten after a half-mile, but he came through to win by just over two lengths under Joel Rosario, who was in the saddle for the first time. The favourite John Hancock set the brisk gallop before fading to fourth.
Tiztastic earned a 95 Beyer speed figure, which is unlikely to be good enough to trouble the main players under the Twin Spires in Louisville. But you don’t have to look too far back in the history books to find a Kentucky Derby that was run too fast, allowing a late-running horse to upset the odds.
Just a couple of years ago, Rich Strike was 18th of the 20 runners through the first six furlongs, before coming through to score at around 80-1. And the season before him, Mage was 16th of 18 after a half-mile but finished best of all, also scoring at a double-digit price.
Asmussen is still chasing his first Kentucky Derby win; he lost a potential big chance this season when Risen Star Stakes winner Magnitude was ruled out earlier in the campaign.
Speaking of Tiztastic, the trainer said: “We thought he’d run bigger in the Southwest. Since he didn’t run his race and he had trained so well here, we brought him back here, knowing he needed more distance. He’s stepping forward when he needs to. The horse has got a great mind about him. He ran a solid race but I think there’s more in him.”
Turfway Park: Final Gambit beneftis from ideal set-up
Saturday’s other Derby qualifier was the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks on the all-weather at Turfway Park. This has been a surprisingly good pointer to the Triple Crown in recent years, notably with Rich Strike having finished third ahead of his Churchill triumph, and Animal Kingdom having won the race – when it was known as the Spiral Stakes – before his Derby success in 2011.
This time around it went to the Brad Cox-trained grey Final Gambit, who came from last of 12 runners in the Juddmonte silks, challenging widest off the home turn to run away from his rivals and cross the line more than three lengths clear. However, this was a race that set up for the closers – the runner-up challenged from 11th – and the winner earned a relatively modest 90 Beyer speed figure.
Although Final Gambit has never raced on dirt, he does have the pedigree for the surface. On the other hand, his evident lack of early pace, coupled with that inexperience, strongly suggests he would find the Kentucky Derby all too much, no matter how the race unfolds.
Final Gambit and Tiztastic now have enough qualifying points for a place in the Derby and they can be backed at 25-1 with international books, but neither appeal at this stage.
Tiztastic might gain some traction as a ‘wise-guy’ play nearer the time, with people looking for a horse to pick up the pieces late in the race, but Final Gambit probably has little hope.
Arkansas Derby: Cornucopian the buzz horse for Baffert
If last weekend’s action didn’t offer the best Derby pointers, this Saturday’s races promise so much more as it’s the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn and the Florida Derby at Gulfstream, a couple of G1 events.
The Oaklawn contest is worth $1.5m and features Coal Battle, who has already won three Derby points races, most recently the G2 Rebel at the same venue, where Tiztastic was only fifth.
Coal Battle has been one of the feel-good stories of Derby season, going for a small-time barn and veteran trainer Lonnie Briley, so he’ll doubtless carry plenty of public support. But his speed figures are ordinary and he’s unlikely to be favoured in the market.
Instead it’s the Bob Baffert-trained Cornucopian who heads the morning line odds at 7-5, with Coal Battle a 7-2 chance). The Baffert runner is a real Derby dark horse and Saturday's race will be a serious test of his Churchill Downs credentials.
Cornucopian has had only one start, trouncing his rivals in a six-furlong maiden on the Rebel Stakes undercard at Oaklawn. He recorded a fast time, but he's now going up significantly in distance to nine furlongs and tackling two turns for the first time. This will ask a lot more of him.
Still, he has the pedigree, being a half-brother to Guarana, a triple G1 winner up to nine furlongs, and Baffert has won the Arkansas Derby five times, most notably with Triple Crown hero American Pharoah in 2015. Cornucopian has been backed for Kentucky Derby glory with the international books in recent days, now being only around a 16-1 chance.
Florida Derby: Sovereignty set to build on Fountain of Youth
The $1m Florida Derby at Guflstream, also a nine-furlong contest, is just as interesting. Baffert is sending over Madaket Road, most recently runner-up to Coal Battle in the Rebel, but Godolphin’s Sovereignty is the 8-5 morning line favourite following his reappearance win in the G2 Fountain of Youth for trainer Bill Mott at the same venue. Sovereignty looks like building on that now up slightly in trip, although this race comes only four weeks on.
Todd Pletcher, whose River Thames was just denied in the Fountain of Youth, relies on Disruptor, an unknown quantity who has potential. This one has had only two starts, most recently winning a seven-furlong maiden at Gulfstream by more than nine lengths.
Disruptor is by a top sire in Gun Runner and cost $1,15m as a yearling. Pletcher has won the Florida Derby eight times, including with subsequent Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming in 2017.
Also in the Florida Derby and looking to punch his ticket for Churchill Downs is the Cox-trained Tappan Street, who has been given plenty of time since his second in the G3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream in February. The winner Burnham Square was then only fourth behind Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth, but Tappan Street is open to improvement seeing as he’s another who has had just the two starts.
Further afield, there’s also a Derby points race in Japan in the shape of Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama, where well-bred Hyacinth Stakes winner Luxor Cafe bids to add another qualifier to his résumé. By American Pharoah, this colt is an interesting contender, for sure.
• Visit the Kentucky Derby website and the Fair Grounds website
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