Ahead of another major weekend of Derby prep races, our expert is far from discouraged by a losing effort at Gulfstream Park – but he’s less convinced by the Arkansas principals
It’s the business end of Derby prep season and there were some promising efforts in last weekend’s points races – but there was no standout performance and the big names on the west coast, set for Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby, shouldn’t be losing any sleep.
The best trial arguably came in defeat from the Bill Mott-trained Sovereignty, who finished runner-up in the 
Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.
The race was won by Tappan Street, who had been given eight weeks off since finishing second in the Holy Bull at the same venue. However, he had a favourable run round and instead the eye was drawn to Sovereignty, who got behind from a wide gate but was keeping on at the line.
The run-up (ground covered before the official distance begins) of the Florida Derby had been increased by 60ft to 130ft since last year, so the race was over a fair bit further than the advertised nine furlongs. But even so, they were still quickly into the first turn and Sovereignty, from the outside post in a ten-runner field, lost a bit of ground.
According to jockey Manny Franco, filling in for the injured Junior Alvarado on the runner-up, there were also a couple of occasions where the Mott colt was struggling to get to grips with the track.
But anyone holding a ticket for Sovereignty in the Kentucky Derby – and full disclosure, I have a small interest in him – can be encouraged by the way he finished off.
Mott noted afterwards: “He [Franco] said the ground kind of broke away from him two different times, once at the three-eighths pole and once at the five-sixteenths pole.
“He said he kind of lost it and gathered himself up, and then he did it again,” the trainer went on. “This doesn’t have to be his best race. Sometimes you can look at it and say, maybe that’s a good thing. You don’t want their best race before the big event.”
The Godolphin representative shapes like he’ll relish the added distance of the Kentucky Derby, as well the much longer straight back at Churchill Downs, and he seems likely to improve.
Then again, he will need to to, as he has plenty to find on speed figures, but he was a five-length winner of the G3 Street Sense last year on his only previous start under the Twin Spires.
The runner-up from that contest, Tiztastic, has since won the Louisiana Derby and third-placed Sandman was an upset winner of last Saturday’s Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. More on him later.
It remains still doubtful Sovereignty will be fast enough for top honours next month – it wouldn’t surprise if connections reach for blinkers to sharpen him up – but he looks just the sort to run into the money, and Mage finished second in the Florida Derby before winning the big one in Louisville a couple of years ago.
As for Tappan Street, it was a good effort to win such a race on only his third outing. He doesn’t look to have the same level of improvement in him, with the Kentucky Derby test in mind, and he earned a relatively modest 94 Beyer speed figure (Sovereignty got a 95 in the Fountain of Youth).
Arkansas Derby: race sets up for closers
At Oaklawn Park on Saturday, the Arkansas Derby was run at an overly fast pace, with the much-hyped favourite Cornucopian being taken on for the lead.
In the circumstances, also considering his inexperience, he did pretty well to finish fourth but the Bob Baffert-trained colt didn’t get the Derby points his connections were looking for. He may still make his mark at the top level in due course and the Haskell at Monmouth looks a good summer target.
It was the Mark Casse-trained Sandman who came through to win the Arkansas Derby, with Publisher in second; they challenged from the last two places off the wicked tempo.
That said, Sandman lugged out a bit when he got the front, so there might be more in the tank, and this son of Tapit should be fine with the ten-furlong trip at Churchill Downs.
However, given he just had the ideal set-up, it’s hard to think he can run a whole lot faster and he'll probably have to better his 99 Beyer speed figure.
Third-placed Coal Battle, something of a fan favourite, had Sandman and Publisher behind him in third and fourth when taking the G2 Rebel at Oaklawn in February. He was much too fresh this time and went after the leaders before the winner and second on Saturday.
Last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan had finished only third in the Arkansas Derby, but Coal Battle is yet to post a decent speed figure.
Japan: Luxor Cafe visually impressive
The most visually impressive performance in a points race over the weekend came from much farther afield from the well-bred Luxor Cafe, who was winning his second qualifier on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby, adding the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama to February’s Hyacinth at Tokyo racecourse.
An American Pharoah brother to Cafe Pharoah (who twice won the G1 February Stakes in Japan), Luxor Cafe was way too good for his ten rivals in this nine-furlong event, tanking along off the pace out wide (also raced wide in the Hyacinth) before drawing clear.
T O Password won last year's Fukuryu before finishing fifth in the Kentucky Derby but Luxor Cafe recorded a slower time than a later allowance race for older horses on the same card. While he looked good and has the pedigree, he probably didn’t beat too much.
Santa Anita Derby: big guns ready to fire
This weekend sees the final major preps of the season – there are four of them – and the Santa Anita Derby looks like being the key qualifier as it is set to feature current Derby favourite Journalism and last year’s champion juvenile Citizen Bull.
Both have won at Santa Anita already this year and Journalism is the quickest of all the Kentucky Derby hopefuls judged on his San Felipe success, for which he earned a 108 Beyer figure.
Journalism: Read all about it – now we’re talking about a proper Kentucky Derby contender
I backed Journalism for the Kentucky Derby following the San Felipe, and he just looks better than the others. If he backs up that performance, he’ll be a short-priced favourite at Churchill Downs in May.
The John Shirreffs-trained maiden winner Baeza is also set for the Santa Anita Derby; he is a half-brother to both Mage and Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch.
Wood Memorial: watch out for Hill Road
The weekend’s other Derby preps are the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and the UAE Derby at Meydan.
Bob Baffert sends Rodriguez to Aqueduct. This horse has finished behind Citizen Bull and Journalism in two starts at Santa Anita since his maiden win.
Baffert notes the horse is still mentally immature. He might be fine at Aqueduct, but that’s something to keep in mind should he make the main gig in the Churchill Downs cauldron next month.
However, the horse I’ll be watching most closely in the Wood is Hill Road following his promising comeback third in the Tampa Bay Derby in February.
Tampa prep merits a serious look – just ignore the winner and concentrate on third-placed Hill Road
The Blue Grass looks like being a competitive race and is set to feature something of a forgotten horse in East Avenue. He’s been off since a poor run in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds in February, but he looked a high-class prospect when winning the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last year.
There are four Japanese runners among a field of nine entered for the UAE Derby, although only two of those – and just one other – are currently Triple Crown-nominated. That other one is Gotham Stakes winner Flood Zone.
• Visit the Kentucky Derby website and the Gulfstream Park website
American Promise: D. Wayne Lukas is back on the Derby trail – but the negatives cannot be denied
Tampa prep merits a serious look – just ignore the winner and concentrate on third-placed Hill Road
Journalism: Read all about it – now we’re talking about a proper Kentucky Derby contender
John Hancock signs in with nice attitude and pedigree – but we shouldn’t buy into Tampa Bay form
Citizen Bull: Plenty to like but champion still lacks the ‘wow’ factor
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