International racing expert Ron Wood looks for the best bets on the Dubai World Cup card at Meydan
It’s Dubai World Cup day, a week later than usual – forming the culmination of Eid Al Fitr celebrations across the UAE – and with the post times pushed back another hour owing to excessive heat.
Meydan’s flagship meeting, featuring five Thoroughbred G1s and three more G2s, has attracted typically strong, internationally flavoured fields – and there is just no getting away from the Japanese-trained Forever Young in the headline race.
Around this time last year, Forever Young won the Saudi Derby before taking the UAE Derby on this card, and he hasn’t stopped improving. He subsequently finished third in the two biggest races in the US – the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic – and most recently returned to Saudi Arabia to win the richest race in the world.
There is actually a strong argument to say Forever Young was only second best in the Saudi Cup, as runner-up Romantic Warrior was asked to make his move too soon out wide on the home bend. But it was still a tremendous effort from the Yoshito Yahagi-trained four-year-old to get the verdict considering the race was over just nine furlongs and around only one turn.
Forever Young galloped on relentlessly to deny Romantic Warrior, and there was a whopping 10½ lengths back to third-placed Ushba Tesoro, who had finished a close second in the previous season’s Saudi Cup. Remember, Ushba Tesoro won the Dubai World Cup in 2023 and was runner-up in last year’s race. He is nobody’s mug.
The Saudi Cup is the outstanding piece of form in the Dubai World Cup, which is scheduled for 9.30pm local time but still set to be run in temperatures pushing 30 degrees (mid-80s fahrenheit), and Forever Young could advance his level even further now back up a furlong in trip in this two-turn event.
The extra seven days since the Saudi Cup is also in his favour, as he’s had six weeks to recover from what must have been a tough race.
The US challenge World Cup is weak, so the selection’s only two dangers look to be the locally trained pair Imperial Emperor and Walk Of Stars.
They go for Bhupat Seemar, whose Laurel River ran away with last year’s race. The stable also sent out to Tuz to win the Golden Shaheen in stunning fashion on the same card, and Walk Of Stars was himself a close second in the Godolphin Mile. This is a trainer to take seriously.
However, Forever Young is already proven over the deep Meydan surface and has the tactical gears to keep likely pacesetter Walk Of Stars in his sights. The two Seemar runners could run big, but Forever Young is now bordering on top class and will justifiably be a short price – he should be too good for them.
There’s no standout in the opening Thoroughbred race of the day, the two-mile G2 Dubai Gold Cup on the turf, and double-figure prices about the German-trained Straight will be tempting.
His stamina is the big unknown, but he has just about the best form in the race from last year, having finished a close second to Rebel’s Romance, a leading contender for the Sheema Classic on this card, in a 12-furlong G1 event in Germany. Straight warmed up for this with a nice keeping-on effort over an inadequate trip is Saudi Arabia.
There’s plenty of US interest in the following G2 Godolphin Mile on the dirt. This is a competitive-looking contest but Raging Torrent, who most recently won the seven-furlong G1 Malibu at Santa Anita, can prove best under Frankie Dettori.
Raging Torrent has stamina to prove but his speed will be a big asset and his trainer Doug O’Neill won last term’s Godolphin Mile with a lesser type in Two Rivers Over.
It’s another horse now based in the US who tempts most in the G1 Al Quoz Sprint, a six-furlong event on the straight turf track, namely Isivunguvungu.
Champion sprinter in South Africa in 2023, this horse was switched to the States last year and ran creditably in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, showing speed from gate nine in a race in which the first four finishers were drawn in the bottom five stalls. He met some trouble but was beaten only a couple of lengths.
That was just his second run in the US, but respected trainer Graham Motion has had more time to work with him now. Isivunguvungu had a prep at Tampa last month, racing wide, and is potentially sitting on his best performance yet. In an open race, he figures to be a nice price.
The last three runnings of the G2 UAE Derby, a Kentucky Derby qualifier run over the Meydan dirt, have been won by Japanese-trained runners. But the challenge from Japan is substandard this time around – their divisional leader is taking a different route – and this race looks like going to Flood Zone for US trainer Brad Cox.
Flood Zone won the mile G3 Gotham, also a Derby points race, at Aqueduct in March, recording a useful enough time in the context of this race. He’s up in trip but his sire Frosted won a G2 over the same course and distance, and there’s also stamina on the dam’s side from Curlin. Flood Zone should be too good for these.
The G1 Golden Shaheen, a six-furlong dirt contest, sees a fascinating clash between reigning champion Tuz and last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint hero Straight No Chaser. But this isn’t a two-horse race. There’s also Nakatomi for Wesley Ward.
They don’t give away Saratoga G1s and Naktomi was good enough to win the Vanderbilt at the Spa last summer. He’d earlier finished only a distant third behind Tuz in the Shaheen, but he did well to get that close considering he was hampered soon after the start. He was best of those from off the pace that day, as well.
Nakatomi was most recently behind Straight No Chaser at the Breeders’ Cup, but Del Mar, with its short straight, is no use to his off-the-pace style. Meydan gives him more of a chance – remember how Mind Your Biscuits rattled home to win consecutive runnings of the Golden Shaheen? – whereas it might be so suitable for Straight No Chaser. With a fair crack at things this time, Nakatomi could upset the big two.
The nine-furlong G1 Dubai Turf is an open-and-shut case. Romantic Warrior wins this as long as his Saudi Cup exertions haven’t left a mark. He has already beaten his main rivals and that extra week since Riyadh is in his favour.
He’s a brilliant horse, a ten-time G1 winner on grass, including one over the Dubai Turf course and distance in January. Had he been ridden more patiently, he would have won the Saudi Cup in comfortable fashion.
The G1 Sheema Classic on the grass sees dual Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Rebel’s Romance against the French-trained Calandagan. And the latter gets the vote.
Calandagan can be a bit quirky – he started slowly when runner-up in the ten-furlong Champion Stakes at Ascot when last seen in October. As such, he has to show his head is still in the game, and his regular jockey has been replaced, which doesn’t look a good thing.
On the other hand, he is a seriously talented animal. He was much the best of those from the off the pace behind City Of Troy, who controlled a modest tempo, in last summer’s ten-furlong Juddmonte International at York.
Now Calandagan goes back up to 12 furlongs for the first time since routing his rivals in the G2 King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Rebel’s Romance might have a more favourable track position in a potentially muddling affair, but the long Meydan straight will give the powerful Calandagan time to warm up and he should be thundering home.
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